What are the odds? In tech we often play the odds. We have to because it’s how we move ahead so quickly. Sure, crazy things happen but we usually can predict them.
There is a story about Monte Carlo in 1913 where the roulette table had the ball land on black 20 times in a row. People started betting on red, after all, the odds were pointing to red since black came up so often, right?
It was still a 50% chance it could be red or black.
If you see someone flip a coin and it comes up heads 5 times in a row, chances are good it will be tails the next time, right?
It’s still a 50% chance it could be heads or tails.
My point here is that some things are actually chance. In tech, we play the odds because we have some control in what will happen, it’s not normally a chance. The exception is some anomalies that happen. They are the wild cards, but we play the odds that all we’ve done and planned for will happen. That’s what separates our lives from gambling. Gambling is gambling. Maybe in cards you have better odds of winning. Yet in dice, roulette, or lottery tickets we are truly gambling. Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good.
In life though, a good plan overcomes most risks. Risk has to be accounted for, it happens in life and work and I try to make sure it’s accounted for. However, we don’t know what we don’t know. That means we can plan and set money aside for emergencies, but there will always be unknowns.
People can get sick, nobody plans to get cancer or a tumor, yet it happens.
No one plans to lose money in the market, yet it happens.
No one can plan for war, yet there are two going on right now. Luckily not in North America, thank GOD!
My point is, we can plan for the worst but we have to find balance. I don’t want to live in fear, but I want to be prepared.
For my health, I work out, I try to eat well, and I monitor my weight, blood, and so on.
For money I put money aside, and not all of it is in the market. I plan for emergencies by having cash I can pull quickly.
All this planning doesn’t prepare me for everything, but I’ll sleep better tonight. It helps me de-risk my life. After all, we do the best we can with what we got at this moment in time. There is no point looking back and second guessing our past. We learn as we get older.
What did you learn today?