As many of you have seen, there have been a lot of cutbacks in the American 5G upgrades.

I don’t want anyone to panic because we’ve been predicting this for about a year now. When it actually happens, it hurts because people lose jobs. The climbers are the first to see cuts, along with the OEMs, material providers, suppliers, warehouses, and so on. This trickle-down effect is very real. 

Unfortunately, this means the trickle-up effect will also take place. Why?

As you saw above, Ericsson is changing their model from employee to contractor. This is one move. Towercos, like Crown Castle and American Tower, are rolling back their construction services to concentrate on leasing which they’re good at and it makes them a lot of money. Let me tell you, construction is generally high risk and low margin. Towercos’ profit percentage will increase even though revenue may drop by losing construction. Take my word for it, this is a good problem to have.

What it means is that first, the construction teams slowly get reduced, in this case, climbers and the foreman. Then the construction managers, then the project managers, and then the support teams. Not necessarily in that order. 

Don’t fret though, many of you can find work among the new services and in other branches of wireless. Keep in mind 5G added a lot of work in this industry, (wireless industry), but it’s not the only thing. Public safety is upgrading, some broadcast work is happening, and the removal of 3G and 4G will happen. There are still network expansions for the next 2 to 3 years along with all the sites that had long delays. 

There will be a ton of outside fiber work coming up. That is a completely different skill set, but all the same, wire carriers will need to remove and replace all the lead cables they laid for the last 50 years or so. Surprisingly it’s a lot of cable. This is something that can’t be overlooked. It is very labor-intensive and costs a lot of money. The labor will be very local I believe.

Don’t forget venue upgrades and DAS expansions. While this is a different skill set, you should be able to adapt quickly. Just keep in mind it will be very local meaning no per diem for a lot of that work.

Hey, sometimes change sucks, but the industry is cyclical. This is my 4th rodeo. 

Now, we have to look to the future. For some of you, it may be a new company or maybe a new career. For others, this may be your industry, moving from carrier work to public safety tower upgrades, or microwave.

Don’t stress out too bad, it’s not all going to end. The migration to 5G has stages. I listed some of them below. If you partnered with the right company, then you should be working for the next 2 years. 

Keep in mind that the nature of the work is changing. Now the carriers have to prepare for changes and upgrades in the network. Yes, the tower work is waning but the rise of software and networking updates will continue. 

Migration away from 3G and 4G

That means that 3G has been shutting down with equipment being removed aggressively. There will be more, but how much? When? 

Looking ahead, maybe 2 years down the road, shuttering 4G will happen much faster and probably with force. What does force mean? It means that carriers will work hard to remove older technologies from their networks. They already had a serious 5G push. Getting 5G devices into as many hands as possible. 

To be clear, I am not sure how much 3G is still out there. I do know it’s still supporting some services, mostly IoT and automotive. It should have been shut down in 2022, with Verizon holding on the longest, per this article. I am not sure if all were actually completely turned off. Most carriers tried to remove what they could when they did the 5G upgrades. I think there were some lawsuits that made some carriers hold on longer than they wanted to. 

Shutdown dates per David’s blog:

• AT&T 3G GSM/UMTS – February 22, 2022
• Sprint 3G CDMA – March 31, 2022
• Sprint 4G LTE – June 30, 2022
• T-Mobile 3G GSM/UMTS – July 1, 2022
• Verizon 3G CDMA – December 31, 2022

Unfortunately, any 3G removals that didn’t already happen, won’t happen for a while unless tied to a 5G upgrade. Remember, they won’t remove it unless they can save money. That means unless there is a reason, like saving rent, they will do it when they have other work at the site.

Unfortunately for all of you climbers, I would think the 4G shutdown would not involve much tower work. I think it’s going to be a software change to reallocate spectrum, for the most part. Don’t get me wrong, some carriers will have to replace radios, but I would like to think that most of them were smart enough to do it during the 5G upgrade. 

I have been wrong before, but who would be stupid enough to go to the site to upgrade to 5G radios and not plan a migration from the existing 4G to 5G? New spectrum and radio consolidation made all of that possible. 

You have to love software, BBUs, and progressing technology that can be remotely upgraded.

Backhaul and Network Changes

Backhaul upgrades are happening. They’ve been happening, I mean the spectrum changes aren’t the only reason you’re getting 1Gbps throughput at a site. The backhaul had to be upgraded to increase your throughput. Cool, right?

However, as we expand coverage using small cell and mini macro sites along with the increasing FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) offerings, carriers need to get creative. This means that we have to connect more sites with high-speed backhaul. The fringe sites are no longer fringe, but key to supplying homes with internet access. 

While many of you think fiber is readily available everywhere, sniff the reality! Fiber is not available anywhere and lead times in common places can be excruciatingly long for carriers. There are many places where fiber upgrades can’t happen or have been delayed for such a long time. Then there are the crazy expensive installations. So, what can we do?

Well, we can wait. That seems to be a common theme all across America. Wait for it and it will come. Wishful thinking? I mean, the BEAD funding is happening for a reason, right?

For those of you relying on LEO birds to save the day, it’s usually a workaround, not an end solution. Even LEO has a very high latency for a carrier’s site that expects less than 10ms per hop.

Let’s add microwave where we can if fiber is near. As I said in other articles microwave is a suitable replacement for fiber, at least for a little while. It’s cheaper over time but expensive upfront. Rent usually isn’t a big deal if the carrier has other equipment at the site, it’s usually included in the original rent models and not adding additional OpEx. It is a reasonable alternative and backup to fiber. So once it’s in they can keep it in just in case fiber drops. Yes, fiber still gets cut. 

We will be adding more and more fiber. I am hoping fiber providers have thought about where we would be 5 to 10 years out. Fiber has been here for a very long time. Most carriers have extra strands at every site just in case they need to add capacity quickly.

However, that isn’t the only thing. The network equipment has to be able to handle the additional services and bandwidth. While we all think it just happens, there are teams of IT people making sure the upgrades happen in the background. They need to be sure the hardware can handle it and that the routers and switches are robust enough to handle the additional traffic. That requires planning, hardware upgrades, and software upgrades. 

This is ongoing work. It’s not something that is one-and-done. While it won’t have the economic impact 5G upgrades did, it should be steady work for the next 5 years or so. Probably longer.

If the FWA models take off, then microwave or multipoint are great solutions for MDUs, (Multi-Dwelling Units), like apartment buildings, condos, row homes, and so on. 

Data Center Upgrades

Who loves the cloud? I do!!

Who loves the edge? I do!!

Who loves edge services and cloud services? I do!!

Low latency baby! Offloading to the max. Major application performance improvements. Who doesn’t love that?

Yeah, baby! (Picture Austin Powers).

In fact, I bet we all love edge and cloud services. I know the networks of today rely heavily on the cloud and the edge is becoming more important to all of us. 

Most apps you use run in the cloud today. That’s why they’re so quick and can have awesome graphics without loading up your phone or laptop with tons of data. 

That’s why Chromebooks are so popular. Offloading to the cloud has changed data storage and processor usage in your laptop forever. Awesome! 

Long live the cloud. Wait, here comes the edge to bring it even closer to me. Nice!

So, what this means is that smaller data centers are popping up all over. Tower companies like Crown Castle and American Tower have been investing in tower companies over the past few years. They saw that it would be an integral part of the communication service provider (CSP) model for years to come. 

There is a reason why. They looked at AWS and Google Cloud to see the massive growth. Microsoft joined in and even IBM has a viable cloud solution. 

Data centers tie all of them together. They are the new telco colocation sites. Remember the days of CLECs? (Competitive Local Exchange Carriers) That is the same concept, only now they not only share space in the data center, but they can share space in the same machine!! How crazy is this?

Let me tell you one more thing, there is no sign of this slowing down. We have had a lot of logistics issues along with the fear of China attacking Taiwan within the next 5 years which caused a lot of disruption. All the more reason we have to upgrade as fast as we can. 

I believe that we are in the infancy of data center growth. Why? AI and Nvidia are changing so much. I thought it would be Quantum computing. Now it seems AI will incorporate Quantum computing into its web of processing tools. 

Whether you’ve read about ChatGPT or not you already know it’s a game-changer. It’s hard not to hear about it with all the press and Terminator movies out there. 

Fun fact – the GPT in Chat GPT stands for “Generative Pre-trained Transformer”. Congratulations, now you know. If you want to know more, it’s another article that I started here but would like to do a deep dive. 

My point in this section is that we need to expect data center growth. 

For your information, I had stock in CoreSites before American Tower bought them and took them private. I don’t fully understand why they took them private instead of rolling them into the tower business, but they’re smart people and I am sure they had good reasons. I am a believer in data center growth. 

Not just the large data centers, but I see a world where we have smaller data centers wherever tower sites and small communities are. Even spread all across sites. 

I also see lower power solutions along with air cooling solutions. We can’t keep using inefficient air conditioners at these sites. We have to get way more efficient to cool these data ovens. Talk about global warming! I feel the same way about tower sites. 

We need better cooling solutions, like Nokia water-cooled equipment. Amazing advances are sometimes doing what other industries, like Broadcast, did years ago. Again, another article but I did touch on it in this article. 

Power – Back up and more

Power is a huge issue. Not just for upgrades at the site, but sites are demanding more and more power.

In this section, I don’t just mean wireless sites, but data center sites as well. They are all sucking more power than ever. So much electricity is being used as demands become greater and we’re adding more and more equipment. While today’s equipment is more efficient than ever, so is the demand. It takes more power as each user may be on their phone and laptop at the same time with maybe a dozen or more apps running simultaneously. Now, imagine all that from a work-at-home family using work and personal devices simultaneously. 

Demand requires power!

I am a fan of using nuclear power, especially with all the advances. Very small nuclear plants should be built across the USA as soon as possible to meet the demand required. The new nuclear power plants are safer and way more efficient than anything we have out there today. The reality is that renewable power needs so many batteries that it’s unreliable as a large-scale solution. Luckily in America, we have so much natural gas and that is the major power source for electricity. Thanks to all of America’s fracking companies!! 

One thing the carriers are doing moving forward is to upgrade backup power. They realize it’s more important now than ever!

This was not necessarily done when the radio upgrades were done because of cost and skill set. Utility upgrades take longer than fiber upgrades. It’s expensive and time-consuming. It may require lease changes along with coordination between the utility company and landlords.

It can be a huge cost upfront, but in the long run, it will probably pay for itself. Just ask anyone whose site has dropped because they could not get more fuel to a site. It sucks! The KPIs for uptime are critical in the carrier world, especially in disasters. 

OpEx will increase because now you have testing, maintenance, and monitoring costs. Maintenance does require a new skill set to visit the sites. Think about it, you have to do an inspection, replace the oil, and maybe lube the generator like you do your car annually. Luckily, your NOC or existing system should be able to remotely test and monitor for alarms.  

Why do we need to upgrade backup power? Hurricanes and high heat are serious problems now. Fires rage out of control all across North America. We need to be prepared.

Remember that carriers don’t only provide mobile communications but home internet as well. Carriers have a heavy burden and the expectation of having a very reliable system during a crisis matters. Not just to one carrier, but to all of them. Remember that FirstNet rides on AT&T’s network but all carriers have contracts with public safety teams. Reliability in disaster matters more than ever.

Now broadband and mobile are considered a utility, not a luxury, especially in disasters. People need to stay in touch, although most people just want to be able to play games and get email since they can’t go anywhere or do anything with all the stores closed. It’s more about the data and less about actually making a call.

Don’t try to tell them to read a book, it won’t work. 

However, it’s not just the cell site that has to stay up. It’s the data centers, cloud and edge servers, and all the fiber connections in between. Now we expect the entire network to stay up and work properly during and after disasters. That is what makes the USA great, even in disasters, we continue to maintain communication for a very long time. That’s why this country is so great.

Thank you, on-call workers, everywhere!!

Thank you, disaster relief workers!

Thank you, public safety workers! 

Oh, also, we have to do upgrades at the sites to replace all those nasty lead-acid batteries. The new Lithium-Ion batteries are so much more efficient, smaller, and last much longer. Did I mention they can last over 10 years? Way longer than lead acid last. Remember to dispose of batteries responsibly by recycling them properly with a death certificate. There is a process and the environment matters, at least in America.

One more change is taking place here. New generators and if you have the money, go with renewable power to assist power generation. It probably won’t replace anything you have today but it can help lower bills.

Renewable power is a pain in the ass. Why? Let me list the ways!

• Solar and wind take a larger footprint and need special permitting.
• You need batteries to store the power.
• You need the proper transfer and backup systems just for renewables.
• You need a renewable power expert.
• So many things can affect power storage, lack of sun or wind, and bad weather. 
• Renewable power is generally worthless in bad weather and in disasters. In fact, chances are good you will spend a fortune to repair it after a store. 

OK, let’s move on.

New Applications

There will be so many new applications on smartphones for 5G. I wanted to write more on this but it’s so new I don’t have many examples. I think this is something we all expect but haven’t really seen yet. After all, broadband is broadband. 

Network Operation Centers (NOCs)

I am speaking of network monitoring and support here, not data centers. 

You may not realize this, but with all of China’s spying allegations, NOCs are moving back to the US for security reasons. Not all of them and not all services, but it appears that onshore is the only perceived safe shore. I say perceived because we all have opinions, I’ll let you answer your own questions about security.

NOC services will be ramping up stateside. We expect to see NOC growth inside America with 5G growth.

Most people that read this may not like to hear that, but it’s a reality that more and more services will be migrating back to the USA.

What else?

Well, as you know, a lot of the players that were in the business are now getting out of the business. 

If you’re in the fiber business, I mentioned that lead cabling will be replaced or removed. Good news. If not in 2024, then definitely in 2025. The carriers may wait for a few lawsuits before they realize they signed all those ESG agreements.  

Fun fact, ESG means using Environmental, Social and Governance factors to assess the sustainability of companies and countries. These three factors are seen as best embodying the three major challenges facing corporations and wider society, now encompassing climate change, human rights and adherence to laws. Thank you, Robeco!

Let me tell you what that means to you if you’re part of a big company. Your big company sank a lot of money into new policies and a new department that will focus on these issues and force you to sit through endless explanations on why it’s so critical to businesses going forward. Oh, that and the Western governments put a lot of pressure on large corporations to follow ESG policies. In the US the SEC requires all companies to report their ESG policies to their investors. That means as an employee and investor you’re going to hear how wonderful ESG policies are and what it means to that specific company.

Are all policies the same? Not really, hence the transparency. 

Per Robeco, “The basis of ESG comes from the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development – known as the Brundtland Commission – which is most notable for coining the term ‘sustainable development’. This was defined as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Tying this into corporate activities later led to a concept of the ‘three Ps’ – People, Planet, Profit – gaining traction in the 1990s. This argued that a focus on each of these three words (and not just profit) was equally important for any commercial enterprise to be sustainable. This morphed into a more specific focus on environmental (planet), social (people) and governance (profit) factors.”

Right now, in the 2020s, this seems like something all corporations worldwide are really into, especially if they’re public. 

What does it mean to me and you? Well, to me it means I have to sit through their presentations every quarter and gloss over it in every company update.

To you, it probably won’t mean much unless you are part of an ESG solution. 

To each corporation, they define it in their own unique way but basically, it’s a form of social responsibility that each company commits to. 

I think it’s a good thing, but I don’t worry about it as much as I do the network. I want to build networks, that’s the dream, right? I want to do it responsibly.

What can we do today? Moving ahead, let’s get through this together. Let’s help each other out. This industry is a community. We need to work together.

If someone needs a job, help them if you can. 

If someone is getting laid off, be kind.

If someone is forced to start a new career, do what you can to teach them. 

We’re all in this together and trust me, this is a small industry. Show some love.

Pay it forward if you can.