Are you curious about the merger and what it will bring? Do you want look into the future and see what could happen? This report covers the future and the past to give you a history as well as makes some predictions on a potential merger. If it does happen, would they downsize? Would they strike a blow to Verizon and AT&T? Would they improve financially? Would Sprint finally set a plan in place to sunset CDMA? Only one way to find out!
This is a report by Wade Sarver and the opinion of the writer. This blog is a partial of the full report. The full report can be purchased as a PDF onGumroadorSellfy.
Summary
We all know that Softbank wants to merge Sprint and T-Mobile. We all saw that Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son met with USA president-elect Donald Trump. We also know that the FCC under President Obama did not like mergers between major carriers. Let’s go in-depth to cover what would happen is the merger happens. This report will cover not only how the carriers and their technology will play together, but the trickle-down effect to the OEMs, service vendors, and tower companies will be affected. I have included links to resources for you to verify the history and facts while the speculation of what will happen is just that, speculation based on my experience in the industry.
Meeting between Softbank Owner and the USA president-elect:
I am sure most of you saw Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son meet with President-Elect Donald Trump. One thing that Masayoshi Son has seen is an opportunity to merge T-Mobile and Sprint. This has been a goal of his and I think that he has seen T-Mobile as a key to getting Sprint out of the slump it’s been in. Let’s look at the meeting and then what it means.
Mr. Son has been frustrated with the prior administration’s FCC and SEC in the USA mainly because he thought that merging the 2 carriers would make a lot of sense. Guess what, it does for so many reasons, but the implications are more than just financial. Not everything about the merger will be good, I will explain below. For now, let’s look at what this meeting means.
Mr. Son and President-Elect Trump are both going to look at growth of business in the USA. Sprint, while Wells Fargo keeps telling us how Sprint is bouncing back and the future is so bright we gotta wear shades, I don’t see it that way. Sprint has done the bare minimum on the network. However, what they have done has greatly improved their network for the least amount of money.
Back to the meeting, Masayoshi Son has offered to put $50B into the USA, not all of it is his money. He is raising $100B from investors around the world. From what CNBC says most of the money comes from Saudi Arabia, to invest. Trump obviously expects to see $50B of this come to America, and it appears that Son agreed to this.
I was told that just prior to the AT&T attempted takeover of T-Mobile US in 2011 that Sprint had planned to merge with T-Mobile. Mentioned by CNN here and TMONEWS here. I believe that it was more than a rumor. From what the insiders said the rumors had some basis to them. It would have made sense and one more thing that was obvious is when AT&T attempted to take over T-Mobile US Sprint came out publicly and did all that they could to stop it. More on that below.
Then in 2014 they talked about merging again. It was Softbank pushing for this after their recent takeover of Sprint. They were really excited to become a major competitor in the USA. It looked like Softbank was willing to pay $32B for T-Mobile US, roughly $40/share. In this case, T-Mobile US CFO mentioned the merger first in 2013 stating that the merger would make sense to compete against the larger AT&T and Verizon. Remember that T-Mobile was growing quickly now. To add more confusion, Dish Network was making a play for Sprint and Clearwire. Sprint-owned most Clearwire at that time. Clearwire had the 2.5GHz spectrum at that time and was operating it on Wi-MAX. Dish failed and Softbank won, if you want to call it that. Sprint had massive debt.
In 2014 Sprint/Softbank gave up their quest for T-Mobile US because the FCC and the DoJ pushed back hard. While o the business side, the agreement seems to be moving ahead, the FCC had other plans. They did all that they could, like creating rules to block the merger of this kind. And this is the legacy of the Obama administration’s FCC.
Honestly, I doubt the merger will bring more jobs to the US. If Son plans to invest in other businesses or startups, then I can see 50K jobs coming from $50B. In fact, is he just gave $1M to each of those 50K people, they would be on the way to massive job creation in the US, but I don’t see that happening.
Before I start, let it be known that both Sprint and T-Mobile workers that I know work very hard and very long hours. They go the extra mile for their respective companies. I hate to see anyone lose a job they love. I can’t believe how hard and dedicated many of these workers are, even when they disagree with the mother company, they still do all that they can to ensure success. Trust me, they don’t always like the policies or even what they do, but they all want to see success.
Here is what I see from the merger as far as workers go. First the initial talks and the teams it would take to make the merger happen would be large, so the first year would be massive. Why? Because of the due diligence on the financial side and the technical side. It takes a lot of time and money to make these mergers happen.
There would probably be independent firms that would investigate the complete holdings and inventories and salaries of both sides. Something that Masayoshi Son probably did when he acquired Sprint. Also, T-Mobile would ask for over $2B up front, much like they did with AT&T. That money proved to be a great asset for T-Mobile. That Legere is always thinking! I believe that the due diligence that Son did for Sprint still missed quite a bit. There were things that we suspect he missed. I doubt he will make that mistake with T-Mobile US unless he wants them so badly he is willing to overlook some problems. Again, he should have learned something from Sprint, he’s an exceptionally smart guy or he wouldn’t be where he is.
Then after the merger would take place they would try to see what efficiencies could happen. This would mean to remove duplication. To translate, that means layoffs. Consolidation means that one side or the other or both will be downsizing and the teams will start to combine and work together.
I see the sales teams and the customer service teams scaling back first, then the project management teams, the finally the engineering teams. Unfortunately, the legacy systems are very different. You are going to be maintaining GSM and CDMA systems. Luckily moving forward, you have LTE which should merge quickly. I would think the technical teams will be one of the last to downsize.
Interested in the full report? For a fee, it can be downloaded in PDF format from GumroadorSellfy by following one of these links. The full Table of Contents listed below for you to see what is covered in your report.
How does this change our model here in the US? Well, for tower climbing most contractors are trying to get crews to work on the same model that the carriers have built. This is because they can no longer carry the burden of absorbing problem costs. Trust me, in tower work, you learn to improvise, adapt, and overcome. You learn to carry a ton of spare hardware in your truck. You know to be prepared. However, you can’t always account for everything. It’s just too much. Which is OK except that no one wants to absorb these costs, especially the end customer.
With all that said, the business model is changing. Correction, the model has changed. Like it or not, the carriers have changed the model. The role of PM, (project management) has changed. The PM must manage so many groups and entities and hardware. So many moving parts. They are looking for a flat fee for every site for hardware and services. Any field worker knows that all sites are different, but any accounting person doing budgets doesn’t care. They want a cookie cutter approach. A way to build a budget and move on. Welcome to all national builds for 3G, 4G, 5G, and beyond.
The thing that is happening, so slowly, is the trickle down effect. What I mean by that is that the contractors want to pay their workers the same way they get paid. That’s right, by the job. It’s already starting to happen as more and more people become contractors. Terms of pay are changing. Net 30 is more common than ever. Be prepared for the change. I am having a hard time with it. I know several people who are worried about this model. I just want everyone to be paid fairly and promptly. It’s only right. Good pay for good work. Good work is a gray area though, isn’t it? It’s a matter of perspective. Hard work isn’t enough, quality work that passes the sign off is what matters.
Will this model continue to take over? It seems that way.,
Do I have an answer, sure, pay the people for their work! Unfortunately, the way the layers of contractors are laid out, payments can be a problem. Most of the field workers today are contract employees. Most contractors do not want to pay people through the slow times, they would prefer to hire contractors for the work when they need them. While many of you want to criticize this, it is how business is done. No one seems to care until there is a climber injured or killed.
There are GCs which hire crews and track all the problems in the industry, but they won’t share, even with OSHA, because they have the fear of getting a bad reputation or getting in trouble, so they keep the valuable information to themselves. They know that if they share it could look bad, they don’t see it as helping the industry. I would love to see this change as well, but I have no recourse. Mistakes, lessons learned, and safety concerns are kept hidden from the industry because GCs often feel others need to learn for themselves.
The model for work is changing in the US. The workers will need to find a way to do the work in a timely manner and still deliver quality. The investors of the companies are controlling the industry.
The model is changing and the flat fee model is happening. I have some illustrations that may help you understand but let’s look at it this way. The contractors are getting a flat fee. Prices are driven down because they look at much of the work as a commodity. It is no longer considered a specialized construction job. I guess anyone can work at 100 feet above the ground attached to a tower by a rope. To be honest, I don’t see a lot of carrier CTOs up there.
The pay structure is going to change. The smaller tower companies may get even smaller and there may be more independent crews that get paid by the job, not by the hour. This is the trend that I see.
Wireless construction is expensive. Towers are loaded. Townships and municipalities are making it harder and harder to build new towers. Much talent has left the industry because of the slow and erratic work as well as the work conditions. I am curious how this new change will affect the industry. I would think that tower work would start to demand a premium again, but it certainly doesn’t look like it’s headed in that direction. The flat fee model seems to be where it is headed.
That’s OK, but eventually it is going to hit other jobs. It already hit RF engineering. It already hit construction. Soon it will roll into other jobs. I see it all over the industry. When bidding a job, you need to predict what it will cost you, then live with the price. That’s the way it is.
For the contractor, flat pricing causes change order issues. If there are problems at the site, then the contractor must ask for a change order. If the GC who hired them does not want to pay, then the contractor risks not getting paid if the job is not complete. The common excuse is that there is no money for change orders. Usually, the GC does not want to go back and ask for more money because it would look like they don’t know what they are doing or it could mean that the margins are so small they don’t have any reserve dollars. Perhaps they know that the customer won’t approve any up charges. Maybe approvals would not happen in a timely manner or cause delays. It all adds up to problems down the road.
The model for most of these services are “flat fee”. Whether it’s done through RFP or reverse auction, the GC will hire contractors and expect a safe job with trained workers to go to the lowest bidder. While on paper this looks good, to be the lowest bidder must be efficient and assume no problems to creep up on the job. If they are losing money they start to make other cuts, usually in training and safety. If the work ramps up, then they start to hire inexperienced people or they turn down the work.
With this change, the way they hire workers may change. Workers may have a new model. Many contractors may want to pay them by the job. With tower work it is a problem because of safety training, safety gear, insurance, taxes, liability, and travel. So many variables in an industry that the carriers have already beat to death. GOD bless the contractors who are still doing it and doing a good job at it.
Getting paid even when you finish the work can be a problem. Payment terms have gotten ridiculous because companies want to get paid before they pay anyone and some carriers want stupid payment terms like Net 120, net 90 is bad enough. It should be net 30. Remember to be clear that the timer starts when the work is finished. If you wait for the inspection them many carriers delay the inspection for weeks, maybe months. Yes, I have seen this in the industry, be clear in yourscope of work or contract so you know when the timer starts. The most important thing you can do is define the terms ahead of time and agree on them with signatures. Your signature and the customers signature. It’s your best bet to get paid or at least show up in court to get paid. Again, I digress, back to the point.
In the old days, contractors would get a bonus for getting done early and mistake free. Now they don’t get paid because they take too long or if they have a problem, even if it’s not their fault, at least not full price. Sometimes GCs have no intention of paying no matter what happens. They leave companies high and dry. This is very common in our industry. Know your customer. Know your terms. Know your milestones. It pays to ask around about the customer and the person you’re working with. While you may be doing an install that is for Verizon or AT&T, the turf vendor you’re working with may pocket all the money and leave the crew with nothing. I hear this story all the time. It pays to talk to other contractors. Most are honest about getting screwed. That’s why they generally like to work for larger OEMs and GCs.
While I talk mostly about tower work here, the problem exists for drive teams, site surveys, inspections, and so on. RF engineering work is leaving the US and going mostly to India where the talent pool is deep and the pay scale is much lower. To be honest they do a fine job. Outsourcing is affecting the entire industry. The carriers want to be efficient, the KPIs, (key performance Indicators), are all about the budget. They want the biggest band for this buck. They still want quality, but like Sprint advertises, if you’re within 1%, we’re good, right?
I got news for you, it already has. Think about how the wireless work has changed over the last decade. Most workers expect to have an hourly job or they expect to capture a salary. From what I see, those days are coming to an end. I see it with many offers out there. I see the changes happening and the contractors see it too. The carriers are looking at how to save money and the latest target is the GC. However, they have had a flat fee per site model for years. Is the work model for wireless going to change all the way down to the worker? Maybe. Let’s look at why this is changing.
There are many changes in the wireless services industry, but the wireless work model is certainly one of the biggest. It affects almost everyone in this industry. If you are a worker in this industry then you could be a 1099 or W2 employee. Most workers are still paid hourly or salary, this is changing. You will soon be paid for the job you do, not for the hours on site, (although it is bid it that way).
If you are a contractor or own a services company, then you are likely to get paid by the job, site, or specific service. Generally, a flat fee per site. I don’t see too many T&M, (Time and Materials), jobs unless they are for emergency repair work. If you can get this work, good for you!
The type of work has changed. It used to be you had a tower crew and the tech at the site after the engineering was complete. Now you have the ground crew, the tower crew, the IT tech, the BTS tech, the lighting crew, the alarming people may be out there, the grounds keepers of you are in a place that needs to look nice, so many people to maintain a shelter or cabinet or site. The remote group is just as critical as you have a team of engineers, RF, BTS, low-level design, IT, and so on. Let’s not forget the NOC or managed services that will monitor alarms and look for issues as well as manage the access to the site. It takes a huge team. This all costs money.
When a contractor responds to RFPs, it is usually a flat price per site or job. They get paid by the job/site and usually commit to one price per site across dozens of sites. They fight for every change order. They often they hear, “there is no money for change orders” which we all know is just a line to make sure GCs, (general contractors), don’t pay more or they don’t want to go back to the end customer and admit they missed something. If you don’t do the extra work, what happens? You could lose future work, you could get a bad name in the industry, or you could do it and eat the costs. Maybe let them hire another contractor down the road to do the change order. Today’s contractor should be smart and willing to walk if they know the jobs can’t be done for that cost. That takes balls because it will risk future work and reputation. However, they want to get paid, they don’t want to piss off the customer, and they don’t want a bad reputation. It all plays into this formula. Flat fee per site is the way things are being done today.
Times are changing. Now we expect to have a flat rate to complete a job. Most companies don’t want to pay change orders. Work is a flat fee and most people hiring contractors have a good idea how long it takes to do a job. For instance, a cell tower, 120 feet mounting location, 3 sector array with antennas, radio heads, and hybrid cable, most companies expect to pay for 2 days labor. They estimate what it will cost for 2 days labor. This is how they drive the price down. Then they put it out to reverse auction. This is because they see the work as a commodity. A commodity is a common product that can be bought and sold anywhere, like coffee or copper. The only difference is that most companies don’t see value in better work. This is because when you look at supply chains, procurement, and accounting departments, their main KPI, (Key Performance Indicators) that they are judged on are cutting costs, not quality of work. This is where the problems begin in the wireless world. I am not blaming accountants, but these decisions have affected quality and safety. When a climber dies due to poor safety equipment or poor training, no one remembers that those costs were cut as a money-saving effort, but I digress, sorry.
Flat pricing is not all bad. It makes it easy for carriers to roll out. They can have can plan a solid budget. They know what is needed at each site. The contractor knows what to expect to get paid on each site. It makes sense from a business perspective. It should motivate the contractor to get done quickly and efficiently, in theory.
The downside? It will encourage the contractor to take shortcuts. To get paid as soon as possible. The end customer should audit each site for safety, workmanship, quality, and completeness adding costs to the job. The PM must manage not only the rollout but the other contractors that are doing the safety and quality audits. Now that its flat fee most companies only do 1 service, tower work, ground work, RF work, sweeps, optimizations, commissioning, integration, and so on. By the way, none of this is free. The flat fee will add costs.
Will the flat fee model trickle down to the worker? That is where it seems to be headed.
How will President Trump change the wireless industry? For one, let me say I don’t know. It is president Trump, not King Trump. Just like President Obama, not King Obama. The president has great power and influence, but can’t just wave a scepter and say, I have said it so let it be done”! He can push legislation but it still needs approvals and any bills or laws have to go through congress, the house, and the supreme court may get involved. What I am saying here is pure speculation.
First off, this is not an article for or against Trump. This is simply my perception of what I think Trump may do based off what I have read and what I know about the industry. If you are for or against, it doesn’t matter, now we must move ahead to make the future brighter for the communication industry. If you have any doubts on who won, let’s count the electoral votes, Clinton got 228 and Trump got 290 That is how we determine a president, not by popular vote or by who we hope would have won. The winner is Donald Trump. Now, let’s move on.
What I see someone like President Trump doing is getting actively involved in getting businesses up and running. I see him as someone who will help American businesses grow and expand. He knows that wireless is a huge business. He also knows that small business is a catalyst for growth and the wealth of Americans like you and me.
To do this he will probably shake up the FCC a bit, having them get more involved with the implementation of spectrum to get not only the carriers rolling, but smaller businesses a chance to complete and expand. We already see some of this with the IOT rollout by SigFox and others.
Let’s break this down by wireless business. I am basing this off of the Contract that the Trump Campaign put out for the election, which is his contract for his first 100 days, found here.
Tower Climbing Industry
I know that the unions are a big supporter of trump. Workers everywhere seem totally behind this guy. The reason is because he did create a lot of work for construction and infrastructure as well as services industry in the USA. He has started companies and many people made a lot of money from this work. If the tower climbers could unite and create an industry specific union, I think that President Trump would support it, but the climbers need to do that and as we have seen, they just haven’t done it yet. There are many climbers in other unions like the IBEW, CWA, and possibly even the Ironworkers. However, the way I see it, climbers have not rallied to create a Tower Climber’s Union. NATE is who the government looks to when they want information on the tower industry, not any specific union. OSHA has tried to help the tower climbers with many programs, but most climbers still don’t perceive OSHA as their friend, although they should.
Let’s answer the question, “what will President Trump do for the tower climbers?” This is how I see it. He will help create work by improving the infrastructure of America and lower corporate taxes on wireless companies that will stimulate growth across the USA. More jobs, steady work means climbers keep busy and possibly can get make more money. This is a positive outlook.
RF Engineering Industry
Here is the question, “how will President Trump help the RF engineering workers in the USA?” Here is how I see it. He is going to make it harder for offshoring to happen. If you are in this business, you know that the carriers specifically use offshore engineering services to cut costs dramatically. If he can change this, then RF engineers in the USA will have a better shot at getting work for a decent wage again, but don’t count on it.
It will be very hard for the government to regulate something like that. Offshoring is very cost-effective and is all done over the internet. I don’t see the President creating a mandate to stop professional services from happening, he has too many other issues to work on. While offshoring is a key issue, I think that he means for manufacturing, not engineering services. We shall see.
Backhaul Industry
What will President Trump do about backhaul? Is this a strange question to you? It should not be and I am telling you why. One of the key points in he made in the election was infrastructure. Infrastructure today is not what it was in the 50s. So many politicians think that it is only that, roads and sewer and water and maybe natural gas.
Today we need to add to the infrastructure list fiber and wireless and all internet connections. I don’t mean Wi-Fi or free access; I mean backhaul so that we can grow and expand. At one time, we all thought it could be Wi-Fi, it’s not. Then we all thought Fiber everywhere, that paradigm has changed. Now we know that fixed wireless will be the key to connecting everything cost effectively and efficiently. It will be a mix of fiber and wireless to connect businesses and homes. We will have incredible access everywhere, eventually, in the USA, if we are willing to pay for it. However, for this to happen it must be available. I partially blame the FCC and the municipalities for getting in the way of this growth. I believe that, with the right consultation, President Trump will be able to open spectrum for this priority and to allow fiber and wireless to be widespread across America. If you think I am pro carrier on this issue, I don’t think we should limit this to those large corporations but allow other players to get in the market, this is where the FCC has made it next to impossible for a startup to do this when spectrum costs billions of US dollars before you do anything! Enough said.
Larger Wireless Carriers
This is a tough call. What will President Trump do to help the wireless carriers? For the sake of argument let’s limit this to the big 4, Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Sprint. They may want to merge or take over more companies. This is complicated, but Trump did say that he was against the AT&T Time Warner merger, link found here, because of the massive control one entity will have. He also came out against the Comcast and NBC merger, but it’s too late to do anything about that, the way I see it anyway. So, mergers may not be as likely to happen as we thought. I get the feeling that T-Mobile would like to sell off its US operations. I also feel that Softbank would like to sell off Sprint. However, both companies want to make money, so they will not give it away. With LTE being the main format moving ahead well into 5G, this is going to make it easier for a merger from a technology standpoint. However, the government may not like companies rolling back into one larger company. However, there is a wildcard that few are thinking about and it’s a long issue, but please, have patience.
Trump is working to add term limits and eliminate lobbyists. While you think this doesn’t affect mergers like this, do you? Well, you are wrong. You see, there are politicians that rely on massive donations from larger companies to get re-elected term after term after term after term. There are lobbyists who represent the larger companies that are in bed with many politicians. The lobbyists represent more than the carriers. You see there are lobbyists for the carriers, like AT&T and Verizon, that work on senators and the FCC. There are lobbyist for the OEMS, same deal. There are lobbyists for the groups that the carriers are members of, like CTIA, WIA (formerly PCIA), NATE, CCA, and more. They all have lobbyists and representatives that have influence with politicians and the FCC. I am not saying that this representation is bad, in fact they bring a lot of knowledge and good ideas to groups that may have no idea. But it’s still outside influence.
I believe President Trump will call on experts to help make decisions on specific issues. I also think he will not just look at the C suites of the OEMs and carriers. I believe that he will find the industry experts who also are feet on the street that care about the specific parts of the industry for the good of the industry and the workers.
Trump will probably remove a lot of the regulation that is out there and that will make it easier for the carriers to do business. He will lower the business taxes, allowing more cash to be spent. Maybe this is what the carriers were waiting for so that they could have more cash to expand and build their systems. Maybe this will allow them to move ahead with new networks and add to existing systems on a mass scale.
Smaller Wireless Carriers
I believe that President Trump may help level the playing field by allowing the smaller carriers to get more spectrum and compete. To do this he will provide spectrum to the smaller carriers that should not be available to the larger carriers at a better rate than the billions they are paying the FCC now. They should also have some pretty healthy tax rates compares to the big 4. Yes, Sprint, while you are a member of the CCA, that doesn’t mean you should get the same breaks as Carolina West, come on now!
It is time to level the playing field and give more help to the smaller carriers who do not have the resources. I believe that the incoming president will provide a set of rules to make it fair.
The FCC
I am not sure what President Trump will do with the FCC. There are so many articles about Trump and the FCC, like here and here and here. He seems to dislike regulation, which means that Commissioner Wheeler may be at odds with the new president. Would Trump bring in republicans to run the FCC? I think he will not follow political lines, but think of what’s best for the industry. After all, the republicans didn’t support him during the election. He doesn’t owe them anything. He does owe America the best communications systems it can afford. When I say “it can afford”, that means you and me, we pay the bills here. When carriers need to add costs like billions for spectrum, billions for permitting and zoning, and billions for all the regulations they need to stay on top of legally and technically, we pay for it. The customers, the consumers, you and me. We pay for it. Our companies pay for it. It is the true meaning of trickle down. The way carrier combat this cost is to create reverse auctions and pull the money from simple tasks like tower climbing, (sarcasm). It is true, tower climbing is not a high paying job anymore, risking your life doesn’t mean as much as it used to, ask anyone who worked in the turf system for AT&T in the 90s. I digress, so sorry.
I do think that Commissioner Wheeler may be ousted because Trump will want someone in there to follow his agenda. Will Wheeler do that? I guess we shall see. The FCC will be critical in building out the infrastructure in America, so critical. Trump knows this and will see that it is a supporter, not a cog in the gears.
It is not easy being the FCC commissioner. The FCC is constantly being bombarded with complaints and questions about what to do and what is wrong. They are hit up by lobbyists and by senators and Representatives who want their constituents to get their way. They are being told what they are doing wrong. They are involved in safety issues, commercial issues, industry issues, and political issues. They have many chairmen but they cannot keep up with all the issues. Each chairman has their specific concerns and allegiances. The issues are rarely black and white, but many shades of grey. While we think we know what they should do, we can only scratch the surface on a specific issue. That is why replacing Wheeler will not be an easy task. The guy knows all the issues and is good at delegation. However, Trump will pick someone who he trusts or he may continue to move ahead with Wheeler.
Trump will need to think this through and look at the team that is in place, evaluating each member carefully. Good luck Mr. President. Your decision will change the future of communications.
Permitting and Zoning for Wireless
Here is a great question, “How will President Trump change the wireless rules for permitting and zoning?” Awesome to think about. For one, we all know that to roll out wireless the slowest part of any new system build is the development of new equipment and fulfilling the permitting and zoning requirements of the thousands of municipalities out there. This includes cities, towns, townships, counties, states, villages, and so on. If Trump is serious about building up the infrastructure, then he will need to figure out how to get things rolling quickly.
I know that most of you think that this is just wireless, but it’s not. Wireless is obvious because you have national companies that want to add an RRH they jump through hoops to get it on a tower. What does this mean? Let me be specific, because most of you don’t realize what it takes.
To add another RRH and antenna to each sector to towers across the USA, here are the steps, from a high level, but you will get the picture. (It is very similar for small cells):
Begin the project
Plan the rollout.
Order the equipment and hope that the OEM gives you good equipment.
Start the permitting and zoning process by hiring local zoning and permitting companies to work with each government to get approvals to add something to the tower, even though most governments rarely if ever go to the tower.
Start working on lease modifications with the tower companies.
Test in a lab and then at a site with live traffic.
Order, provide logistics, create an RFP. Some carrier put it to reverse auction. Bid 1 price for thousands of towers, even though they are not all the same and they all have individual issues.
Sign with a GC that will hire all the regional GC that will hire the tower climbers in each region.
While all of this is going on:
Make tower modifications where necessary. This could be making tower improvements or beefing up the tower.
Increase backhaul if needed.
Continue to modify the rollout schedule based on the results coming back for each.
If permitting and zoning is blocked or delayed, work on that case to see why.
Then, after all the approvals, do the work which includes:
Install
Commission and integrate
Test, site acceptance testing, maybe drive testing.
Bring live
Customer gets 2 or 3 times the download and upload speeds due to the new equipment.
There are so many variables that could cause delays and that will affect the schedule of the rollout, and the price of the roll out because efficiencies are lost. This is a major problem with rollouts that cost so much money because few municipalities truly understand the tower use. All the know is what they think is going to be a problem.
I believe that the new president will see this, as the FCC sees it, and start to make changes. I believe that the municipalities will unite to fight it.
To be clear, Trump has said that he intends to deregulate business. He has mentioned how the FCC should step back on some regulation. How far will this push? We shall see.
The Wireless Infrastructure OEMs
I think that the wireless OEMs will be affected. For one, Huawei has tried to sell its infrastructure in the US, but the US government has said NO! More on that here. It’s the same with ZTE, the US government does not trust Chinese OEMs. However, you should know that most other OEMs all get equipment manufactured in China. China is very cost-effective for these companies to make radio heads, BBU parts, and more for the carriers. Soo it’s not like China doesn’t make other equipment. It is more about the level of trust the US government has with these companies.
I don’t see any of this changing except that the new president may ask the companies to make equipment here in the USA. I don’t see it happening because it’s not cost-effective, and we would have ramp up factories and production for something that generally has a very limited run. But hey, what do I know.
I will be honest, ZTE and Huawei make some great equipment that is sold worldwide, including Mexico and Canada, neighbors of the USA. I am sure that Nokia, Ericsson, Samsung, and Cisco are very happy not to have the competition in one of the richest countries in the world. If they could compete in the USA, then it would drive hardware costs down. Huawei has some great equipment used across the world. In fact, they make phones for the USA, many people had HTE smartphones. Yes, they are in the USA, for examples look here, here, and here. We already have Huawei product in the USA in the carrier’s systems. It’s just for the end-user, not the carrier.
The OEMs try to support the carriers with hardware and services but lately the carriers want to hire their own people. This is not always cost-effective, even though they go direct, they get poorly trained or inexperienced people in exchange for saving cost. But, if you look at the big picture, the costs are more for support, repair, and doing things the second time. I see it all the time. It all depends on what specific part of the project cost you look at.
The OEMs should benefit in sales and deregulation, allowing the carriers to build out more and more. It may be a positive for them, but we won’t see much until mid year 2017. That is when we will see if this prediction holds true. By then the OEMs will have laid off more of their workforce.
Commentary
I also see the permitting slowdowns coming to the forefront of political business. The carriers one major roadblock to rolling out quickly is permitting and zoning. Local municipalities should be very worried. They may see laws passed that give a precedence to wireless rollouts. They will need to get zoning ordinances into place quickly. Thanks to Mobilitie and the way they pushed the ROW limitations over the last year or so, many have already changed their rules. If you are a municipality, I would recommend that you start joining a coalition that will give you strength in numbers to fight something like this. Stand united and start today.
Services in the USA may change by how they are done. For instance, there is a great deal of off shoring of RF and data design services but Trump has vowed to pull more jobs back into the USA, so that may change. This is going to make us all look at how business should be done. All wireless military work currently must be done by US citizens; they may expand to all public safety and first responders and all government work. When I say all government work, it could mean more than federal buildings, but state, local and schools. Many of them have wireless services and all have IT services.
What about new projects? From what I have read, Trump wants to build up the US infrastructure. Don’t count out wireless because wireless and data are a serious part of infrastructure. It’s not just roads and rail. It the information superhighway that travels on fiber and airwaves. They are all part of making America great again.
I believe the carriers will start to have less regulation that will allow them to grow quickly. However, they may pay more for services since they can’t offshore and because the reverse auction and turf practices may be considered.
What about mergers? Will T-Mobile or Sprint merge with a carrier or a cable company? Will AT&T be able to continue merging with media companies? I think President Trump will see the value in mergers in wireless. I also think that if T-Mobile wants to merge with AT&T, Sprint won’t have any say in it because the lobbyists will start to lose power. So, it will be completely up to the SEC and FCC, not all the politicians who are getting donations from various competitors. I see the way companies and groups lobby the government as changing. Which means many politicians will lose their massive donations! The new President already made it clear he was going to change the way they get political donations and that he will fight for 2 term limits. President Trump did say he would block the AT&T/Time Warner merger, [get link] in this article. So, he may be against companies getting too large, then the mergers will be off the table once again. Maybe he thought that the ‘too big to fail” issue is real. By the way, to be clear, Time Warner does not own Time Warner Cable, just similar names.
What about the tower climbers and unions? Well, it seems like President Trump will be pro-union, but from what I have seen no union seems to want any more tower climbers than they already have. This may not be up to the next president but up to how the tower climbers come together. So far, I don’t see an organized workforce, I just haven’t see them work together outside of NATE. It appears that NATE will continue to represent the tower climbers. To be honest, the president hasn’t been hurting the tower climber’s union, it has been a lack of interest by the tower climbers.
Did you ever wonder, what is 5G anyway? What does that mean to me? If you’re not interested in technology, then it’s just another buzz word, but if you’re reading this, then you asked the question.
The 5G network, as of 2016, is still being defined. What we do know is that it will not be like 2G, 3G, or 4G because it will be more than the format, spectrum, speed, or even the equipment. Let me break it down for you.
Can we define 5G? Let’s look at the Wikipedia definition of 5G, found here, “5G (5th generation mobile networks or 5th generation wireless systems) denotes the proposed next major phase of mobile telecommunications standards beyond the current 4G/IMT-Advanced standards. 5G planning includes Internet connection speeds faster than current 4G, and other improvements.” So what does that mean? It’s more than just a network connection or a format. It will include the connection to the internet, the connections to each device, the broad-spectrum of devices used in the network.
Quick history recap:
Older formats were defined by what they could do but we really just looked at the wireless format. We looked at 3G as GSM or CDMA. We were looking at 4G as the next generation which was LTE as chosen by the carriers because it is the Long Term Evolution of wireless.
Then when going to 4G it was a competition between WCDMA and WiMAX and LTE, LTE clearly won the battle. All the carriers went with LTE. This helped them make the equipment and deployments more of a commodity which saves them money. The evolved packet core made it easier to distribute the radios and split up the core. The all IP system matched what most networks are today making the transfer of data more efficient and clean.
So why improve? Because we’re human, that’s what we do, advance. In this case it was the end-user’s insatiable demand for data that has pushed out 3G pretty quick, costing network operators a lot of money in upgrades to get to an all IP LTE system. Thanks to the iPhone, the mobile device changed forever!
The big difference? It’s the network! Going to 5G is more than just the wireless format, it’s all about the network and the combination of networks. Back when 4G was coming out there was this concept, the HetNet, that was introduced. The Heterogeneous Network is a concept that came from the computer world where, according to Wikipedia, “using different access technologies. For example, a wireless network which provides a service through a wireless LAN and is able to maintain the service when switching to a cellular network is called a wireless heterogeneous network”.
The HetNet is the game changer along with new speeds and spectrum and formats. When looking at the system you could have macro sites and small cells, LTE and Wi-Fi and perhaps another format all working together as one big happy network where the end-user has no idea what network they are on. You could be in any spectrum, 600MHz, 700MHz, 1.9GHz, 2.5GHz, 24GHz, 28GHz, 60GHz or another band which could be allocated to 5G. You could even be in the unlicensed spectrum running Wi-Fi or LTE-U or a lightly licensed band like 3.65GHz, the CBRS, here in the states. The end-user may notice the change in speed but not the format or spectrum change. In fact, I would believe the end-user won’t care unless they see a big change is speed, or quality of experience, (QoE). Seriously, do you even think about it unless voice is crappy or the download rate is painfully slow or you lose connection altogether?
So, what is 5G? It’s the combination all the network encompasses. It will be all of the parts put together to make the speeds super-fast. Now, you’re probably wondering how we will get there. Lucky I put together this list for you to see how we will improve speeds.
Carrier aggregation – what this is the method used to aggregate carrier, which is explained by 3GPP here. What that means is that carriers used now can be combined in the equipment to look like one big pipe of bandwidth. It is advancing, currently I have seen 3 carriers all put together but it should grow to 6 or 7 in the near future allowing the pipes to be bigger.
Carrier aggregation with unlicensed bands – I thought I would throw this in there because it is very different that normal carrier aggregation. I will tell you why! Licensed aggregation is from the same BTS making it easy to aggregate but the unlicensed aggregation like LAA and LWA is combining spectrum from a BTS and some unlicensed access point. That makes it much more complicated and I have to give the OEMs so much credit to do this. In the UE device they can put it together and it seems that Qualcomm figured out how to do it in the device.
Massive MIMO – that’s right, the antennas are making a difference. I know, it’s more than the antenna but let’s just point out that it’s a team effort between the radio and the antenna to shove even more bit per second in the same bandwidth. There is ahigh-level overview here. I am not going to get into the technical details but the beam forming technology and the way that one antenna will have hundreds of antennas in it that can focus on one user, is amazing. I remember that Ruckus has high-tech antenna technology in the Wi-Fi spectrum which really set them apart from their competition. The antennas will push data to new limits in 5G systems.
Improvements in LTE – the formats are improving but bandwidth is limited in today’s spectrum so this is reaching its limit. However, we now have LTE-Advanced, which is being released in networks in 2016. This includes much of the services that are listed here. However, if the radios don’t improve then we don’t’ advance or evolve.
New spectrum – the spectrum is coming in bigger bandwidths for the carriers to put together. We no longer see carrier use 1MHz carriers, but they are looking for 5, 10, and 20MHz carriers. When the “5G” spectrum in the mmwave, (millimeter wave), is released they will have 20 MHz channels and higher. So imagine a carrier has 100MHz of bandwidth on one carrier and they can dedicate that to a limited number of users and they can aggregate it with 3 other 100MHz wide carriers to provide 400Mhz of bandwidth in the same spectrum. This is what the 24GHz and higher spectrum will accommodate. Would that compete with cable for home internet access? I think so, as a fixed wireless system where we no longer have to run cables or fiber to a house or business. If only the carriers would work out a flat-fee unlimited data plan for users that would rival the cable companies plans without the TV channels.
Now, I went over the wireless improvements but as you know it’s more about the network which includes the backhaul and core. Did I say backhaul and core? You know it’s more than that!
SDN – Software Defined Networking which makes the routing architecture smarter and more efficient. If you want to learn more start here.
NFV – Network Function Virtualization used SDN to make the network virtual. That will make the network functions work closer to the user. Learn more here.
Cloud Computing – here is where the applications are brought closer to the user, lower latency and improved customer experience to the point where the network sees less congestion. Learn more here. So where is the cloud? It should be in a server near you. They could be anywhere in a data room set up to serve you and they should be able to work anywhere.
Fog computing – this is taking the cloud and shoving it as close to the end-user as possible, to the edge. This is where the IOT will be able to make smart decisions in very little time, low latency. I found a good explanation here.
Cloud RAN – C-RAN is where the RAN will not have a local BBU, but a virtual BBU. Similar to CRAN which is Centralized RAN which is where the BBU hotel is remote and fiber connected the BBU to each radio head which could be using CPRI or another format. The limitation with this is that the fiber needs to be dedicated fiber for each radio head. I have an article here, but I want you to realize that if you are in the industry then CRAN and C-RAN are very different, ask any OEM or carrier. Cloud RAN is where the BBU function is more virtual whereas Centralized RAN has a direct physical connection to the BBU. Get it?
5G will encompass new applications, new ways to use the Het Net. New ways to get the processing power to the edge of the network using the cloud and even fog technologies. I think that we have to change the paradigm of the wireless network. It won’t be long until we have fixed wireless providing internet access to homes to replace the cable modems we need now. Operators will have more than 10Mbps backhaul for wireless cells, small or macro. It won’t be long until they need 1Gbps to 10Gbps to 100Gbps to satisfy the needs of the end-user.
So now we have 5G. This is going to be more than just a new format or a higher speed. It will be a combination of formats with so much more included. We will see 5G specific applications that will shape the network. We will see the networking equipment be a requirement, the cloud, even fog computing will be part of all of this.
Think about what we will see with 5G, artificial intelligence on the network, virtual reality anywhere, and so many new applications that we can’t even think of yet.
Today I spent time with Chad Tuttle of B+T Group who has really grown over the year. It is an interesting story for several reasons. Chad’s family was in the tower industry since the 1950s, in fact, they built out some of the AT&T towers, you know, the big towers with the “ice cream cone” looking dishes at the top. That is so cool that his family was part of that history. I highly recommend listening to what Chad has to say, he is really an interesting guy who knows the tower industry better than most people. He is a really smart guy that understands how the industry works and what they should be doing. I want to thank him for taking time out of his busy schedule to spend an hour with me, I really appreciate it.
The Wireless Deployment Handbook eBook that covers professional carrier end to end deployment of LTE small cells, CRAN, and DAS showing you the proper way to plan for deployment then execute.
Anyway, while Chad does talk about B+T Group, and all that they offer, he gives us the history of how the tower industry grown, about co-location of carriers, and the evolution of how the carriers started sharing towers. When he started his business it was more common for companies to build their own towers and not share. Well, then wireless growth happened and soon, there were not enough towers, and people had to share. Then the structural integrity of the tower really mattered. This is where his business really started to take off. If the towers could not hold the load, then they would fall! If you want to learn more about the history of how the tower business initially began to grow, then listen to Chad tell us about it.
He talks about how B+T Group, started with Chad and his partner, Dinesh Bhat, who grew the business from the 2 of them to over 150 people, wow! Chad is a very hands-on guy, who has a great entrepreneurial spirit. He started this company in 2000 and took it to amazing heights, (get it, new heights). He is constantly looking for ways to improve the tower structural and maintenance business. He mentions his new ideas and the deliverables for site inspections and surveys. The reason they expanded was because their customers asked them to add services, like tower mapping and maintenance. When you do good work your customers ask you for more services. They do more tower modifications services than ever.
Who is Chad? Chad is a licensed engineer in 42 states, serves on the board for Arkansas/Oklahoma Wireless Association, Association of Civil Engineers and TIA committee for structural analyses. He graduated from Oklahoma State University in 1994, Chad began his career at National Steel Erectors, Inc., building telecommunications tower sites throughout the United States. In addition to spending three years as a structural engineer for BSW International, Chad managed and served on the board of directors of a private contracting company. In other words, he is a smart guy who knows the tower industry.
Scope of Work defined in this tutorial.
B+T Group covers 42 states, but they are based out of Tulsa, Ok. They offer structural services as well as other tower and maintenance services. However, the thing that really caught my eye was the Site 360. Now remember that they are still a tower mod company, that is their main business. By the way, I know we talk a lot about the tower side of things but they have quite a presence in DAS and small cell deployment. It has been something that their customers asked for and they responded with solutions. They actually found a great way to do surveys quickly, accurately, and cost-effectively. Chad believes that the small cell business will boom, that we only scratched the surface of small cell deployment. I could see the scans that they use with new technology being useful for not only carriers for deployment, but what about the fiber companies that need the exact dimensions of the streets, the distance from to each pole, they have the technology to do this, and keep it online and on record. I am getting ahead of myself, sorry, it’s just a game changer for anyone who would normally send someone out to do exact measurements and hope they did it right. Read on wireless fans, or better yet, listen to the podcast!
They have a new service that aligns with Site 360, it is really cool. B+T Group will take detailed pictures of the tower, 360-degree digital images of the tower with all the information about what is on the tower with exact heights that are within 1 cm of accuracy. If you click on the picture and zoom in you can click on an antenna and get the model number or the cut sheet of the antenna. You can get the leasing information, it’s all there. Remember when you used a drawing and you really hoped it was accurate? This is a new deliverable that B+T Group is providing with Site 360.
This new technology allows them to take a picture of a street, tower, poles, anything and build up the database and drawings so that you can have a reference that will give you all the dimensions and measurements within 1cm of the tower, shelters, poles, street width, and everything mounted on the structures. Is that cool or what? I think it’s awesome!
Chad tells us how he was at the site and he could find that 3 new antennas added in 2 minutes by using his smart phone, all on the ground. One more thing, once they have the tower in their database they can give you all kinds of information you may want in the future, like down tilt, antenna size, mount size, how far the antenna is from the tower, details that you might have sent a crew back out to look at, so if you scan it in once, you have data for a lifetime!
To give you an overview of what Site 360 covers, let’s look at what you would want to audit the tower. You want to know exactly what is on the tower, what height, and who owns it. All this can be done from an interactive drawing. Look at the site and click down, you get more detail, from down tilt to what type of mount is being used, all by pointing and clicking!
Think about what you really want from a site audit, whether it’s a tower or a small cell pole. Also, what could you need in the future? Maybe someday you want to look at the down tilt of specific antennas. If you do the complete audit once, then you will have information for the future. What are you looking for? It’s a deliverable that you need now and you can use in the future! In this case the deliverable is not a 3-hour movie to watch, but rather online documents, could be interactive, that could include any of the following.
• Site Plan drawing
• Tower elevation drawing
• Feedline plan drawing
• Compound PhotoSynth
• Tower PhotoSynth
• 3-D Viewable Model
• Drone Video
• Appurtenance Audit
• Rear antenna PhotoSynth
• Antenna Level Drawing
• Mount Mapping and Drawing
How do they do it? One or all of these options:
1. Ground-based Audits.
2. Climbed Audits.
3. Preconstruction Inspections and Mapping.
4. Using new technology using pictures to capture all of the data.
5. Putting all of this onto a server for full access.
6. Creating the deliverables.
If you want to build a database for your tower sites, this is a great investment. Go to www.btgrp.com or call them at 918-587-4630 if you’re interested in any of their services and see what Site 360 can do.
More information: http://www.btgrp.com/who-we-are http://www.btgrp.com/development-services http://www.btgrp.com/site360 http://www.btgrp.com/field-services http://www.btgrp.com/contact-us
We have been talking a lot about 5G and how the networks going to look. I brought up some 5G business cases in a post that are feasible for more than the carriers and I am working on many more. What about the enterprise and the building owners, how will they benefit? What about the smaller building owners, how will they benefit? How will we get the enterprise to have a carrier-grade wireless network? How can we deploy in small venues where carriers think installing small cells and DAS is too expensive? How can the enterprise and building owners benefit? I think I have a plan, let’s talk it through.
As you know the carriers are getting stingy when it comes to small cell and DAS deployments for anything smaller than a 30,000 seat stadium. So where does that leave enterprise and the smaller building owners? Don’t discount yourselves! You have more power than they know. You have the key to letting them into your building or office or even using them as a carrier. Let’s go over how the changes in the availability of carrier grade equipment will make all of this possible for all of you in the enterprise IT departments. You have to make an investment, but it may not be too expensive.
Keep this in mind, the carriers fought to make LTE a commodity. They have pushed LTE-U and it opens up opportunity to you, it can give you control of what’s in your building. The upcoming CBRS, 3.65Ghz, will open new doors because of its lightly licensed availability for small cell deployments. Let’s see how.
Now this takes a change in mindset for wireless usage in the enterprise and buildings, so please, be open-minded!
Let’s think about what having your own carrier-grade wireless system can do for your business. For starters you can isolate you network and control who roams onto it. Coverage and security will be pretty awesome because you control both. You can control who roams onto your indoor network, so you choose which carriers you will allow to roam onto your network. You can have the carriers tie into your network to complete handoffs from their core to yours. How cool is that? I bet you wonder how this will happen. I’ll go over it below. Take control of your network and only share with the carriers that will work with you.
The equipment will be available to everyone, not just the carriers. While the bigger OEMs like Ericsson and Nokia will have this equipment, there will be many companies making this equipment more affordable. Look at Wi-Fi, the hardware prices came way down when companies like Ubiquity made it very inexpensive. Router prices came down. Server prices came down. You will have the opportunity to get this equipment within your budget. Also, you will have a say on who can enter your building or office space in your wireless domain. This gives you power to choose what carriers you want in your office space. Maybe you don’t want any and you want your devices to roam onto your secure network in your office. Well, here you go. Public safety is going to set this up in their models this way so why can’t you? Make your network safe and secure to control who roams onto it.
There are several wireless spectrum choices in place to help you move ahead with this concept. Follow along.
LTE-U, which is LTE in unlicensed spectrum will be available soon. This will be just like your current Wi-Fi network which you probably already use. The good thing is that it will offer an easy way to handoff from the carrier to your cell. So your smartphone will offer features that seamlessly roll from your carrier to your network. Wi-Fi does almost all of this but LTE makes the handoff smoother. The downside is that it is unlicensed so if you have a lot of Wi-Fi hotspots and LTE-U hotspots then you will have bandwidth issues due to interference.
LTE in the 3.65GHz range is lightly licensed and made for indoor small cells. This equipment will be available to anyone soon so all you need to do is apply for the license online, which is going to be really easy, then you can light up a licensed network in your building or office. The upside is that its licensed so interference will not be an issue. The downside is that it takes more effort up front but once you set it up, it’s done until the license needs renewed.
Soon, the 5G spectrum will be available in lightly licensed or license-free bands. Think of this as a new opportunity. You will see be high bandwidth on large swaths of spectrum. When the carriers stop paying for indoor coverage you have the opportunity to allow only the carrier you want to use in your domain. They could have a dead spot in your building, but as long as your carrier of choice has coverage, who cares? Seriously, it’s not your responsibility to provide them coverage. You should not be force to let them in.
How can you improve throughput?
Carrier aggregation allows for all LTE bands to work together. This is something that we expect small cells to have very soon, so it will look like you have the bandwidth of both LTE-U and 3.65GHz LTE all in one. WOW! The downside is that you need an OEM small cell that supports this technology. You also need to build out small cells on both bands to make it work.
The 5G mmwave spectrum will have huge spectrum channels available for you to use in your building. Think about that! The potential is there for you to use something clean and massive in your own space!
What about the core?
The core is something you install yourself and have running like your servers in the data room. Of course, there is more to it than that but someone can help you figure it out. Several companies make smaller cores that you can use to anchor your LTE system and tie it into the carrier’s core. There is also MulteFire, the QUALCOMM format that allows you to have your own LTE service, unanchored if you wish. MulteFire gives LTE the ease of use and connectivity like Wi-Fi. I am not sure but it make invoke some security issues that you also have with Wi-Fi.
Security will be very tight on your licensed spectrum with the core to control who is in and who is not allowed on the network. It is up to you to make sure that your network is secure.
And then what?
Suddenly you have new IOT options and equipment that was only available to the carriers. Features that could really help you track people and equipment in the building. Wi-Fi has options like this as well, but now we’re taking it to a carrier grade level.
Offer your system as an extension to the carrier of your choice. Since they won’t pay for coverage in your office or building, contact them and see how they will roam onto your network. It may be mutually beneficial for them to use your network. I don’t know how billing may work but this may be a way for the carrier to improve their coverage and for you to extend the coverage of all of your company’s devices.
So what do you do next?
Choose your OEM, preferably one that will have a core product that will connect to a carrier’s network if possible. You can search for either LTE in a box or small LTE system or something like that.
What can you do with your network? Take it to the next level. If you don’t see anything past Wi-Fi, then why spend the money? If you do see potential in having all of the devices connected to a carrier-grade network, then use it to connect the devices that currently are only capable of working on the carrier network. The potential is there for LTE to change your life and make your wireless network go to the next level by offering apps specific to your location. Wi-Fi has this capability now in NFL stadiums, so why can’t you do it in your building? Think about the work specific applications you can offer your employees on their smartphones, tablets, and laptops. Maybe you have people that come into your work area from other regions that would need access to these apps? Now you have a quick solution to providing them with quick and seamless coverage in your work space.
What about IOT? Track and control your equipment within the smart building. Monitor and track all of your equipment in the building. You could not only monitor all the things you have now, like your servers and alarms, but a building owner could monitor pressure gauges or door alarms or heating and cooling sensors. Control of these things is also possible. These are all things that you may want to connect to your device. You may already have this. You could also track your people inside the building. While all of this sounds cool, most of it can be done today and you could lay the foundation on your network, but the connections could go farther.
Now, think of the next generation of what you plant to do within your office? Do you plan to work with virtual reality, (VR)? Do you plan to use heavier and heavier data for specific applications? Then you could see where you could dedicate spectrum just for an application like that. You could run it anywhere in your office space wirelessly. You could stop running cables to every workstation in the office and you could move from the laptop to the tablet if you haven’t already. Think of the potential you would have with dedicated spectrum tied into your unlicensed spectrum.
Think about how you control your domain! You will be the master of your domain, in a wireless sense anyway. You don’t need to beg the carriers to come in, instead, you can control who enters your domain. You can keep them out. You control it and if you want it secure then you don’t need to let anyone in. Let’s change the paradigm here to one where you have complete control of your wireless network.
How will 5G small cells be deployed? How will 5G small cells be installed? How will the 5G small cell planning go? These are all good questions. Let’s touch the surface to understand what the starting points are. Let’s also cover how you can play a part in the 5G expansion.
Basically I am not sure what the 5G format will look like in the mmwave spectrum but we all know that LTE will be the foundation in existing spectrums. It could be LTE-Advanced or eLTE, evolved LTE. It looks like LTE will be here for a long time, in tech time anyway.
With the coming of 5G we will see more and more HetNets. This is obvious if you are in the industry, but the great thing is that the networks will be able to talk to each other. Much like the internet now, where you just plug-in, the wireless networks will start to connect to other wireless networks. The carriers will be able to connect to an independent network and hand off data. They are doing it now with Wi-Fi. However, Wi-Fi is not as friendly with LTE as we would all like to think. That is why LTE-U will make things easier to interconnect wirelessly. How exciting is that? This will make the carrier independent small cell a multi-carrier small cell. How cool is that? Looking at the unlicensed band as part of 5G is essential, because many small cells in the unlicensed band will be used to offload the constrained licensed spectrum.
That is why you could build your own network then reach out to the carriers to see if you could connect to them. The carriers made it clear that they don’t want to pay for small cells or DAS unless they see a clear payback. However, I think they would entertain a partnership with a business or company that could help them serve their customers.
Just to note all the carrier say they are testing 5G, but it looks like Verizon and AT&T have really made public progress here in the states. Verizon went so far as to set a standard, look for it here.
I don’t’ want to take anything away from T-Mobile though, they have tested 5G with Nokia just last month. You can read about it here.
First off, what is a 5G small cell? That is the question! If you follow me at all you know I say that 5G is the system, not necessarily the format Well, it is, but when you hear about the carriers talking about testing 5G, what does that mean? Let me explain.
First off, 5G will be a combination of LTE and new formats. When I talk about 5G small cells I really am talking about the 28GHz spectrum and up. Considering that licensed and unlicensed will be included. LTE-U and Wi-Fi will play a part. We need all the spectrum we can get. So keep that in mind when focusing on the 5G small cell.
Now, the carriers are all testing 5G in small cells in the 28GHz spectrum and up. They are currently testing, in the USA, 28GHz because there is a lot of spectrum available there. The FCC approved it so let it be done! That is where most of the carriers have been testing equipment. Nokia and Ericsson are testing equipment in this range as well. So that is where we will focus on today’s discussion.
So the small cell will have to have the basics, a type of BBU and a radio head. Only this time, at 28GHz the cable loss would be super-duper high! Sorry for the technical terms, you need special cable to handle spectrum that high. So they will definitely have the radio head connected to the antenna. That is done today but most carriers, except T-Mobile, seem to like them separated so that can replace them if necessary. Usually they wind up replacing both, but I am getting off topic.
The radio head and the antenna one unit, just like microwave where they attach the radio head directly to the antenna. So think about the extra weight to the antenna will increase. This could have an effect on antenna placement and the way you mount the antenna. If it’s outdoors, then you may need to worry about the weight or the size of the unit. Most times it may not matter. Indoors it may not make a difference but you may not have the stealth unit you hoped for.
The BBU may all be in one unit for indoors or outdoors they could have it all-inclusive or could be a separate unit with a fiber connection between it and the radio head. The expectation is that the radio head will have more intelligence in it so that the fiber runs can be longer for someone like Verizon who loves to deploy the CRAN system. This will make the core and BBU more virtual The radio head will be able to do more but won’t have the full macro capability, but in theory it should not need it. It should be able to see the BBU which may be nearby or in the cloud. How cool is that? Virtual radio heads are not far away and the cloud will lower latency, but once again, I am getting off subject, let’s focus on the small cell.
So what has changed? It really doesn’t sound like much as far as the small cell is concerned. It sounds more like the same device, integrated in a different band that is smarter than the old device. So what?
Well, if you’re in this business you should already know the answer! It’s the antenna! That’s right, the antenna and the connection between the radio head and the antenna! That is going to help us get maximum spectrum from the radio head to the antenna and from the antenna to the UE device! How? I am glad you asked!
MIMO, (Multiple In Multiple Out) which allows more spectrum to pass between devices. First off, the radio head will have 4 to 16, (maybe more) connections to the antenna allowing many bands to talk to the end device. Fun MIMO PDF to read here. This gets highly technical, so bear with me. They cram a whole bunch of antenna panels into on antenna and then split signals to and from each little antenna. But wait, there is more! Now the little antennas can focus in a specific user giving them a priority and allowing it to pass more and more traffic. OK, maybe my explanation wasn’t so technical, but NI does a good job explaining massive MIMO here. My point is that the antennas are way smarter and they will be the game changer here.
MIMO can be used on macro or small cell, but for small cell the additional spectrum will really help because we have huge bands at 28GHz and up. In fact, Sprint has a ton of spectrum at 2.5GHz and up but they seem to be very slow to deploy. Maybe they would sell it, I have to think that they would because the CFO recently saidhow the spectrum would be perfect for 5G. Antennas got smart so it will really help you
Massive MIMO is going to make wireless connectivity better and better. Who knows what we will see next. I want to see this technology rolled out. It can be used in almost every band to improve throughput and coverage to the device. Think about what the cell will have to do, but also the devices will need to add more antennas to really utilize it. If the antenna can really have one smaller antenna talk to a specific device whilst talking to other devices simultaneously using common spectrum, it will be a game changer. I know there is more to it than that, but it sounds pretty cool.
The antenna technology will may take more RF engineering, I believe, because planning will take more time on smaller networks. On the other hand they will be in a higher band, 28GHz and up with more spectrum. This may allow installer to install based on line of site and then they can use the spectrum planning to keep the channels from stepping on each other, just a thought. That is somewhat like Wi-Fi now. Not sure how it will be handled or now neutral host will be handled. These are all thoughts that I am sure someone is working on.
There is a nice PDF found here, http://telecoms.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2016/06/5G-architecture-options.pdfthat covers architecture of the 5G radio. Please note that they clearly state that 2 technologies are discussed, but the reality is that it will include both LTE (which they will call ELTE) and the NR, (New Radio developed by Qualcomm I believe). We can talk about that in a future blog if you’re interested.
FYI – 28GHz will be licensed, but I am not sure how. I say it like that because the coverage area must be very small. So I would like to see it as lightly licensed. I really see it used more like the 3.65GHz band, only smaller coverage area or as a backhaul. With all of that spectrum you could have backhaul depending on the usage. More info here.
Have you been reading about all the tension between LTE-U and Wi-Fi? I wish the FCC would just release an authorization to use LTE-U. After all, it is license-free spectrum, right? Let’s look at what’s happening.
LTE-U is being backed by OEMs like Qualcomm, Nokia, and Ericsson. It is also being backed by the carriers because they see it as a great neutral system host that will handoff seamlessly with the licensed LTE that they have now. I really hope it takes off because it could really open some doors for neutral hosted small cells.
I have to admit, for the LTE-U group to hand off the sharing and testing to the Wi-Fi Alliance took some balls. They knew that the Wi-Fi groups would go to the FCC and make it a David and Goliath battle, the big carriers against the small Wi-Fi operators like the cable companies. (Do you sense my sarcasm here?) The FCC was probably happy to see this because it was one less thing they had to deal with, and they didn’t need to dump it off to NIST, National Institute of Standards and Technology. CableLabs was doing most of the testing in the beginning, and they had nothing good to say about LTE-U, remember? Articles here and hereand here.
A while back T-Mobile asked the FCC to speed up the LTE-U release, found hereandhere, so that they can move ahead with a new technology. Well, for the bleeding edge of technology, it is really moving slow, isn’t it? The Wi-Fi Alliance has announced its LTE-U plans, again, and pointing out that Wi-Fi might be adversely degraded. Could you imagine if the carriers would have made statements that they would rather stick with GSM or CDMA because LTE would cause too many problems? I see this as new technology that could change things. I get it, the Wi-Fi Alliance is protecting the interests of all their members but let’s move ahead here. It might be good to have a little competition and get the technology out to the real world. Let’s have the end-user decide which is better, Wi-Fi or LTE-U. We all have Wi-Fi and like it, but don’t you think we all want to try something new? While LTE isn’t new, to use it in the ISM spectrum is quite exciting to me. In the words of Rodney King, “Can’t we all just get along?” Apparently not. The delays in the testing of LTE-U has created a lot of tension.
Well guess what! The testing plan has come back from the WFA, (Wi-Fi Alliance)! They said they would get the results sooner than later. They finally released the test plans, found here if you want to read through it, so maybe we can move ahead. They promised that they will turn around something in a few days! WOW! It took them a long time to get here but now they can turn around testing in a few days.
I admire the LTE-U groups for putting their testing plans in the hands of the Wi-Fi Alliance, but I guess they really wanted the testing to be fair and balanced, just like Fox News. The WFA took a lot of criticism for their processes. If you remember CableLabs was doing early testing and all they seemed to do was criticize LTE-U. Recently Verizon and Qualcomm were not happy with the comparisons, article here, because it made LTE-U look bad, according to Verizon. That is what you get when you throw the testing over to a group that has a lot to lose.
Think about it, Wi-Fi systems are being built to provide alternative access and offloading for the license access. Cable companies who didn’t invest in purchasing spectrum made a simple investment in Wi-Fi like many WISP, Wireless Internet Service Providers, also did. They were able to build a business using license-free spectrum. They spent money on the equipment and access to allow subscribers to get internet access using Wi-Fi. Remember that Wi-Fi is on almost every device out there with a processor.
I am a fan of Wi-Fi because it is in every device. I use it everyday and I love having it in my home. It really works great and is very reliable. However, it is in a license-free band, it would be nice to have alternatives. The problem is that many people expect Wi-Fi to be free, like when they go to Starbucks or use it in their homes.
Back to LTE-U, in January the FCC put out a statement about moving ahead with LTE-U testing,found here, which made the testing sound positive and exciting. While spectrum sharing concerns were mentioned it impressed that we would move ahead in a timely manner. So here we are.
Luckily Ericsson started testing in Africawhere they can see what it can do in a real world setting. This will be a critical band for the 5G migration. Maybe South Africa will offer us answers to the questions about interoperability and spectrum sharing that we just can’t seem to get in the USA.
In the USA back in 2015, several senators working to find out how LTE-U will destroy Wi-Fi, article found here, to make sure that the FCC looks into this. Well, here we are over a year later and we are still trying to figure out what is going on. Do you think this is what Senators Brian Schatz, Richard Blumenthal, Tom Udall, Ed Markey, Maria Cantwel, and Claire McCaskill know what is going on today? In fact, Brian Shatz called for more regulation on unlicensed spectrum. More regulation, that’s just what we need in the unlicensed band. I have to argue with this, seriously, the FCC does a pretty good job, but it’s unlicensed spectrum, how much regulation do the senators think the government should have? If there is more regulation then they would license it, right? Am I missing something here? It’s unlicensed! Wi-Fi can interfere with itself is not managed properly, should we report all of our license settings to the government. Should we capture the configuration of our Wi-Fi routers in our homes and email them to Senator Shatz’s office? If you want to contact the senator from Hawaii, then go to https://www.schatz.senate.gov/contact and let him know that you believe that regulation is a good or bad idea. Let him know what you think about more government regulation in unlicensed spectrum.
So let me know what you think, email wade4wireless@gmail.comwhen you think of something to say!
Just to cap this off, Commissioner Wheeler did respond, link here, letting the senators who see more regulation as a positive thing, that the FCC is keeping an eye on this and will manage it to the best of their abilities, after all, they are the experts.
So let’s get this straight, LTE-U is going to be the villain in this story because it is the new technology that is being pushed by the big carriers and OEMs. To be honest I don’t’ see it that way. I see a new technology that will open up doors for better efficiency of the spectrum and a foundation for the license free growth of 5G. While many worry about the coexistence of Wi-Fi and LTE-U, I worry about progress. Progress of wireless technology in unlicensed spectrum.
Analogy time: You know, Henry Ford said “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses”. Really they wanted cars and it changed the world. If we would have asked the Wi-Fi users what they want, they would say faster Wi-Fi, am I right? It’s all about progress and perspective. We will always have people who push back, but we need to look at the bigger picture. The bigger picture here is the limitations of Wi-Fi and the movement to 5G. Remember that LTE will evolve or be sunset. The carriers want something that will evolve so they don’t need to do a complete system overhaul like they did for 2G and 3G. Those forklift upgrades get quite expensive, although for the deployment teams it means a lot of work!
I am rooting for LTE-U to move ahead in the real world so we can truly see what it’s capable of. Real world usage will tell us if it will be a success or just another WiMax or iDen. I see an opportunity for small businesses to try something new, for IOT to advance, for new companies to enter the market with new technologies that were previously limited. I am an optimist.
What do you think? Let’s move ahead. I am asking the FCC to start pushing and pulling to make LTE-U happen sooner than later. Let’s go FCC, let’s move wireless into the next generation, Generation 5! (You probably call it 5G.)
Let’s move ahead to new possibilities and potentially new ways to communicate. Virtual Reality is pretty cool, but there is so much that we haven’t thought of yet. Maybe Buzz Lightyear, (from Toy Story), will start saying, “to 5G and beyond!” I can’t wait!
bama did not like mergers between major carriers. Let’s go in-depth to cover what would happen is the merger happens. This report will cover not only how the carriers and their technology will play together, but the trickle-down effect to the OEMs, service vendors, and tower companies will be affected. I have included links to resources for you to verify the history and facts while the speculation of what will happen is just that, speculation based on my experience in the industry.
and President-Elect Trump are both going to look at growth of business in the USA. Sprint, while Wells Fargo keeps telling us how Sprint is bouncing back and the future is so bright we gotta wear shades, I don’t see it that way. Sprint has done the bare minimum on the network. However, what they have done has greatly improved their network for the least amount of money.
than a rumor. From what the insiders said the rumors had some basis to them. It would have made sense and one more thing that was obvious is when AT&T attempted to take over T-Mobile US Sprint came out publicly and did all that they could to stop it. More on that below.
Here is what I see from the merger as far as workers go. First the initial talks and the teams it would take to make the merger happen would be large, so the first year would be massive. Why? Because of the due diligence on the financial side and the technical side. It takes a lot of time and money to make these mergers happen.![DAS 101 Distributed Antenna System: A Basic Guide to In-Building Wireless Infrastructure by [Baasan, Soyola]](https://i0.wp.com/images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41lhG0BQVJL.jpg?resize=99%2C158&ssl=1)
after the merger would take place they would try to see what efficiencies could happen. This would mean to remove duplication. To translate, that means layoffs. Consolidation means that one side or the other or both will be downsizing and the teams will start to combine and work together.
![DAS 101 Distributed Antenna System: A Basic Guide to In-Building Wireless Infrastructure by [Baasan, Soyola]](https://i0.wp.com/images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41lhG0BQVJL.jpg?resize=165%2C263&ssl=1)
