What will the eSIM Offer?

OK, the photo is a joke, get it? 

You don’t insert eSIMs.

You didn’t have anything like SIMs on the old phones. They were not wireless.

On the really old phones, you couldn’t dial, you just picked it up and tried to get the operator to connect you. Today we talk to Siri or Alexa, not an operator. Could you imagine doing that today? Just pick up the phone and say, “Hey operator, connect me to Wild Bill across the way?” Then mysteriously, old Wild Bill picks up and complains that he was on the toilet when you called! Oh, right, we can ask Siri to call Wild Bill and the same thing happens. I guess we really have come full circle, haven’t we?

No MVNOs or wireless carriers in those days, sadly. No choice of phones. No purple, yellow, or rose gold. You got the black phone and you liked it. It was an expensive utility and you could only call local without paying more money. Calling outside your local area was considered long distance. It was expensive, just like roaming charges, only wired.

No voicemail. No text messages. No apps. No internet. Just good old-fashioned talking, unless they didn’t answer and you got on with your day.  

As I said, you liked it. If you remember a time before wireless phones, you liked your old phone up until you were on call for work. Then it sucked. 

I wrote this article because I think eSIMs are going to help change the way telecom looks at devices. We need devices but only as an interface. Hardware solution with apps and software being the product. I believe eSIMs will accelerate that ecosystem.

First off, what is a SIM? A Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) card has a unique code to identify you on a network. You add the chip to your phone to activate it so it works on your carrier’s network. It gives you permission to work on a specific network and pay that carrier/MVNO in the process. Think of it as a Wi-Fi certificate on steroids. You need it to work on a network. Still curious? Look here.

What is an eSIM? Well, eSIM is an embedded Subscriber Identity Module. Just like the SIM, only it’s a pre-installed chip where you enter a unique code that becomes embedded on a much smaller chip. It’s so much easier to add because you can scan a QR code or enter an ID. If you live in the US, think of Microsoft Authenticator crossed with a social security number. Instead of an external module, you enter a code. How cool is that?

The eSIM was originally introduced by the GSM Alliance. For smartphones, it was Apple that ran with the idea and pushed it into prime time. Pretty sexy, right? 

Oh, just so you know, this is also the way you’re tracked by governments. They get your information from a carrier and then they can track your mobile digital device. All you do on that device. Now, suddenly it seems scary, and not so sexy. (Unless you’re in law enforcement tracking criminals or in a dictatorship/communist government spying on the masses.)

Why does Apple like it? Think if you had to design the new iPhone. The eSIM chip is smaller than the SIM chip. It eliminates an opening in the device, preventing water damage as well as losing the bracket to hold the physical SIM. It’s quicker to get the phone activated, especially if you have to wait for the carrier to ship you a real SIM. One less thing to worry about. It uses less energy saving battery life. It’s probably cheaper, but I don’t see any prices dropping. IoT devices, on the other hand, have to be as cheap as possible to make the business case work. 

For the carrier and MVNOs, there is no need to carry physical inventory. I see this as an opportunity for MVNOs to ramp up direct to the end user offering almost immediate activation. Let people buy their own devices from whoever.  

How convenient! It kind of makes sense, right?

It makes the phone setup easier and for the carrier or MVNO, they have lower overhead and no stock. So much easier on both sides.

I think dual eSIM would be easier to switch back and forth, although I am not sure what the advantages would be. Maybe if you travel between countries or if you have an open device and like to use 2 networks for coverage, that makes sense too if both countries allow eSIMs. It could be if you have a work number and a home number you could quickly switch. Maybe to go from private to public networks, although I am not clear on that right now. I just don’t have all the answers. 

Why would an MVNO care about eSIMs?

I think Mint Mobile and Ultra Mobile were sold to T-Mobile at the perfect time. Why? Because eSIMs are going to allow the mini MVNO to take off.

Imagine this. If a carrier can sell large data and voice plan with bundled eSIMs, all on a website. Before, the MVNO had to store the physical SIM somewhere, but that no longer applies. No more physical inventory. Create a simple contract, much like what AWS and Google have done with small businesses. Why do carriers make it so hard and confusing? Keep it Simple Stupid (KISS). I get it because I am simple and stupid, just ask my wife. 

Many MVNOs do this today but they have been shipping SIMs and they try to sell devices. For Visible, Mint, and others, now they can sign people up by having them sign up and scan a QR code. I think it could be that simple. Why not? Those MVNOs have done a great job reaching end users. 

Mint has Ryan Reynolds, who hasn’t hurt them.

It could even allow the smartphone vending machines to come back, would that be amazing? 

By the way, Alibaba sells these. So yes, they are a thing. 

You can already see chargers and cell battery vending machines at most airports. 

How secure will eSIMs be?

The FCC has a site answering questions about eSIMS. I recommend reading the FAQ. 

There they talk about the security of eSIMs. An eSIM can’t be stolen like a SIM. It remains inside the phone. Of course, the device can still be stolen. 

However, you still have your hackers trying to steal. You still have people who may figure out how to create fake eSIMs. It’s still a possibility. One that will probably be attempted. We just have to face it, there’s always someone trying to beat any system.

I think they will be as secure as the network will allow them to be. Currently, it’s pretty solid.

I did see an article, found here, where there is a way to hack it but it relies on social engineering and lazy carrier representatives to actually make it happen. It’s not easy or intuitive and relies more on human laziness and error rather than hacker superiority. 

What about IOT?

IoT devices could use the eSIM but Deutsche Telekom came up with an iSIM or integrated SIM which is smaller than the eSIM chip. WOW! This may replace the eSIM someday, but for IOT it makes sense. Learn more here.

If it can be made smaller and use less energy, then it makes sense. 

Who wins with eSIMs?

I always think the carriers win. More devices mean more income, right? Even if it’s the low trickling income of IoT devices that only pay pennies a month. It’s still revenue.

I know IoT was supposed to pay off big, AT&T bet big for it, but the revenue of these connections is relatively low since you need 10 (or more) times as many connections to make up for a smartphone or Fixed Wireless Access (FWA).

IoT is not as attractive to carriers as one might think.

I honestly think that MVNOs will start popping up more and more if the carriers can make the packages attractive. Why would a mini MVNO want to sign up maybe a thousand or so users under their own name? Whether it’s IoT devices or the latest smartphone. They may want to offer local service to their school, municipality, or town without waiting for the carrier to open a store or the hassles of ordering online only to find out the coverage sucks.

I think it could be a win for the carriers to automate this process. They could close stores, offload the sales to MVNO resellers, and gain revenue. It may be prepaid or monthly, either way, they can become the utility and let independent resellers connect in smaller markets. 

Maybe my vision is too simplistic, but I remember talking to a carrier about automating this process some time back. They seemed to be moving ahead with a model like this, but then, like so many small ventures in large corporations, it faded away. I am guessing that whoever was driving it moved on to something different. 

It isn’t easy being an entrepreneur in a large company without executive sponsorship. Executives don’t often get the bigger picture unless it’s very safe.

What’s next for eSIMS?

As for the eSIM, I am hoping it simplifies setting up devices. Whether a smartphone or a thing. I want something easy and simple. I think this is going to make things better and open up more opportunities for the carriers. 

I see opportunities for hyperscalers to actually build up their MVNO models and perhaps compete with cable companies. 

We will see eSIMsl dominate and the SIM will eventually fade away or at least fade to a niche market. 

I believe this creates an opening for mini MVNOs to start up a business using the carriers in their specific local market if there’s coverage. Why not? No more physical inventory, at least SIM cards. Now they can just have the end user buy the smartphone to IoT device from Amazon, get online to receive the eSIM, and sign up for service, and they’re done! Visible and Mint had very similar models. It was all online and easy. 

Amazon has plenty of phone plan options through MVNOs, it’s so easy to get on and sign up today. They ship you the plan and the SIM, prepaid, done.

Oh, eventually we may migrate to iSIMs for everything, who knows? 

As for the future of SIMs……

However, 10 years from now, physical SIMs may be considered suspicious activity. The main thing law enforcement doesn’t like is how people using SIMs are constantly switching devices. This could look suspicious. I believe law enforcement will look at devices using regular SIMs and wonder why.

Today, SIM swapping fraud is a thing, it’s being monitored. Hackers are so savvy. I am not sure we will ever get past these scams. 

Why bring this up? I believe the FBI tracks more than we know today. Why do I single out the FBI? Did the FBI censor or influence Twitter? Not monitor or track, but actually censor tweets that appeared to help one political candidate over another? I have to wonder. When I say censor, they may have directly done it or indirectly influenced it. Even Mark Zuckerberg talks about how the FBI came in to influence which information should be shared. They were very specific. What else would they censor/influence just because they can? What else could they manipulate? Why did they do that?

That’s another article, but it opens the door to the FBI influencing other activity, doesn’t it? Democracy is awesome especially because things like this usually come to light. Yet, political manipulation happens, even in the US. I love the United States for freedom and because things like this always come to light, eventually. The truth is out there, we just have to find it. If you think we have it bad, ready anything about anyone who escaped from North Korea, then ask that question again. I recommend a book I recently read called “The Girl With Seven Names: A North Korean Defector’s Story” by Hyeonseo Lee. 

Just in case you missed it….

You have to give T-Mobile credit. They just bought Ultra and Mint, meaning they will get Ryan Reynolds commercials. Let’s face it, we enjoy most of the Mint commercials on YouTube. However, they also had a brilliant FWA commercial with John Travolta, Donald Faison, and Zach Braff. So much fun to watch!! Doesn’t it make you want to get FWA today? 

Banning Huawei

I’ve been thinking, do people know Huawei was actually banned back in 2011?

For those of you that don’t know, Chinese telecom vendors were actually partially banned back in 2011, but only for large telecom companies. Many of you think former President Trump did this without any real evidence, but it all started under President Obama back in 2011 and 2012. 

It isn’t new, but the reality is that China is one of the top Cyber Spying countries in the world. Probably up there with the US, the difference is that China will spy on friends, foes, and its own people along with anyone to help the government’s interests. 

Do they trust their own people? It doesn’t sound like it. For example, the highest concentration of cameras is in Beijing and across China according to a Comparitech article. Per the article, “54 percent of the world’s cameras are located in China” and “Cities of China* — 540m cameras to 1.46bn people = 372.8 cameras per 1,000 people”. Crazy, right? The next closest is India which has 64.52 cameras per 1,000 people. India has a very dense population as does China. In the US, LA is the largest at 8.77 cameras per 1,000 people.

It seems that US private citizens buy a lot of cameras for individual use. I’m not sure how many cameras Chinese citizens have.  

Who is the most paranoid government in the world? Let the numbers do the talking. Of course, I would bet North Korea still has the tightest reign on its people. Even China sees the benefits of capitalism. 

I do remember how good Huawei looked back in 2011. We didn’t see ZTE as a threat, but Huawei was a force to be reckoned with. Their marketing material was amazing. They seemed to have all the answers.

They had all the answers for WiMAX, 3G, and the transition to LTE. It was unbelievable. It didn’t make sense to any of us because we knew that LTE required new hardware to make things work. Their data sheets looked amazing because it appeared one box could do it all. Greatest marketing material ever. 

They were so cheap and they promised the world. Their business proposals were too good to be true. So maybe they were too good to be true.

Reality set in, they could not deliver quite the way they promised. I guess it was too good to be true. We got the intelligence that they couldn’t do what they said they could do back then. They did work hard to make things right. I would like to say I think they lost money, but they didn’t seem to because they apparently paid their people way less than western countries pay. But their workers worked hard to make things right. Seriously, the Chinese workers worked hard, but not necessarily smarter. They spent a lot of time repeating mistakes. Eventually, they got it.

Now, with all that said, Huawei has some pretty great gear today, but now that they’re not a competitor in the US, I can’t tell if it’s getting better or not. 

If they had problems, they had what appeared to be armies of Chinese engineers to throw at any problem. Amazing! How do I know that? Because a few Canadian companies went all in. Something they probably regretted in 2021. 

So back in 2011 and 2012, Huawei was banned from the larger telecoms in the USA. Thank you!!! Selfishly, I was glad because I worked at Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) and that would have destroyed our business.  Which meant that we had tons of meetings on how to combat this. Well, I think AT&T and Verizon would have stuck with us, but Sprint was all about saving a buck.  

Unfortunately for Sprint and Huawei, their lobbying back then was not so strong. Huawei and the Chinese Government’s involvement was perceived as a threat by the US Government. Thank you, FBI. However, thanks to free trade, they still got to sell to the US Tier 2 and 3 carriers. Again, under President Trump, they were forced to rip out all Huawei and ZTE gear in the states.

Huawei would ship in a lot of Chinese engineers, which to me were treated poorly by American standards. When you talk to those guys all you could do was feel sorry for them. No wonder so many wanted to live and work here. 

By the way, if you want to learn what President Obama and then Vice President Biden did back then, read this and this. 

Now, let’s talk about Clearwire. 

Clearwire was a WiMAX company that actually built a nearly nationwide WiMAX network. A true data network for hot spots and fixed wireless. Today that seems normal, back then it was groundbreaking. In fact, ahead of its time. 

Lots of microwave backhaul. A WiMAX network built mostly with Huawei equipment. That’s right folks, a Chinese vendor deployed across the US.

They built it on 2.5 GHz spectrum, today it’s known as Band 41. Yes, formerly Sprint’s spectrum where they built 4G and 5G Massive MIMO and today it’s T-Mobile’s spectrum for 5G Massive MIMO. It’s been a crazy 14 years. 

While you may or may not remember the history behind this, Sprint eventually took the spectrum back and shuttered WiMAX in favor of LTE. Remember Xohm? 

This was another Sprint business disaster as they tried to be pioneers and all they got was pain. I believe it was because WiMAX never evolved nor got industry support as LTE did.

We saw a lot of technologies die, even WCDMA, the evolution of CDMA. GSM was also left by the wayside, although it’s more of the foundation for LTE.

In 2013 Sprint bought all of Clearwire for something like $2.2B, you know, because they had money to burn. They did get the 2.5GHz spectrum, which today is very valuable. 

Oh, WiMAX, what great technology. 

Sprint decided to shut down the WiMAX network in 2014, shutting it down in 2015, really 2016 until it was mostly shut down. 

Sprint did not try to go with Huawei when they moved to LTE. They already had partners in Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung. Huawei was done with WiMAX and Sprint. Gone and being removed at sites. 

https://telecoms.com/opinion/down-to-the-clearwire/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-huawei-zte/u-s-lawmakers-seek-to-block-china-huawei-zte-u-s-inroads-idUSBRE8960NH20121008
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearwire
https://www.computerworld.com/article/2493928/clearwire-accepts-sprint-s–2-2-billion-bid.html
https://www.fastcompany.com/3004059/sprint-buying-clearwire-22-billion
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/sprint-to-shutter-wimax-network-around-nov-6-2015
https://www.politico.com/story/2011/02/chinese-telecom-giant-jams-obama-049543

Swapping Huawei

We saw a more aggressive approach in 2020 with the US banning all Chinese Telecom gear. 

So many US and Canadian telecom companies have been swapping Huawei gear out, mostly on the government’s dime. That’s fair considering that the government forced them to swap and it costs many millions, perhaps over a billion dollars. 

Swapping out the core, routers, RAN, and microwave networks. 

This was a lot of work for all parties involved. For the Non-Chinese OEMs, it was great. For the telecom tower workers, it was a good thing. It was good for all outside of Huawei and ZTE. 

All this at the government’s expense. 

I think most of you know what’s happening today. Most of the people reading this are probably involved. 

We also know that the feds in the US didn’t quite pay for everything. This is an ongoing battle. 

Huawei moving forward

We covered a lot of history here. Chinese vendor issues and the death of WiMAX. I am just tying it all together for you. 

Well, since the US pointed out the issues with Huawei, crazy at first, but the English apparently found some evidence of security flaws or “backdoors” in Huawei gear. I read an article here that shared a report that can be found here. 

So, we don’t know what’s really going on, but it seems like the companies that are stuck with Huawei are at risk. On the other hand, maybe Huawei fixed the issue. Who knows? I don’t. 

I do know that relations between China and the West are probably the worst ever. Russia invading Ukraine didn’t help either side. 

Just so you know, China is tightly aligned with Iran and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Iran is accused of supporting terrorist acts against the west and the Congo has allegations of a slave trade to mine Cobalt. 

I hope we can work things out because a war would be awful for everyone involved, except maybe Russia. 

I am surprised China didn’t just start to exert its dominance over Russia, not sure what they’re waiting for. To me, it’s clear China needs the natural resources and Russia is vulnerable. China is now the big boy who can push Russia around. 

I guess that’s another article.

Is Wireless Power Irresponsible?

Here’s a thought I had. How responsible are we in tech? I believe we try to be, but knowledge is power. Knowledge can make us uncomfortable. Especially when we learn ugly secrets. Awareness is the key.

Is lithium-ion one of those ugly little lies we’re living without even knowing it? Maybe. 

Listen, we all love our devices, but let’s face it, the lithium-ion batteries we rely on have faults. I realize we need batteries to make things wireless. We need wireless power. In this case, specifically, we need lithium-ion batteries to make things happen longer. They seem like an amazing invention, but at what cost?

Wireless power is the cost. Smartphones, laptops, power tools, and electric vehicles all need lots of power. We rely on lithium-ion for almost everything in our hi-tech lives. It doesn’t stop there! Watches, toys, lights, soap dispensers, towel dispensers, and more. Can you think of any new device without a lithium-ion battery?

All these devices have cobalt in them. Most cobalt comes from the Congo where human rights mean nothing.

Do you remember when child labor was a horrible thing for clothing makers? I remember when Kathie Lee Gifford was told her clothing was made by children in another country. She didn’t know until she was told and then she was horrified. We should be reacting the same way.

I am telling you now, we have real issues with the mining of cobalt. Think child labor, human trafficking, and environmental destruction. Especially now that we have electric vehicles going mainstream.

Who is to blame for this? We can sit here and blame big nameless corporations, but you know, we had laptops and power tools before smartphones. It’s easy to point the finger at Apple, Samsung, Tesla, Ford, GM, or Nissan.

Let’s face it, we are to blame. That’s right, look in the mirror and see the guilty party. We buy all of this crap. And now we’re buying EVs which are going to accelerate the problem unless we find alternatives.

We can’t take all the blame though; local governments are pushing vehicles to go electric. In California, the state will stop selling anything but EVs by 2035. They want to save the planet, but are they inadvertently promoting child labor and destroying Africa’s environment? Clean cars, dirty conscience, but the California government will be happy.

In this article, I want to cover how responsibility around Lithium-Ion batteries needs awareness, and we have alternatives.

I’ll talk about recycling, which is being addressed today. Recycling is a key issue moving ahead. While we all like it, I know tons of batteries will be in landfills. How bad is that? Really bad for our kids.

Then I’ll cover the corruption in the cobalt mining industry and how it promotes child labor and human trafficking. How it will destroy the Congo.

Remember, in the US it’s mostly an environmental push. They’re doing it to save the environment. But at the cost? How many new problems have been created? 

I was inspired by a book, “Cobalt Red” by Siddharth Kara, to write this and get the word out. We have to act now to stop this.  

Problem #1 is Battery Recycling Overview

There are millions of smartphones and they all have toxic chemicals inside of them. Recycling is more than a good idea; it should be your first choice for anything with a battery inside. Just think about all the landfills that will have batteries breaking down in them. Eventually, something will leak and then get into a water supply. Chances are good it won’t be a happy ending for the environment and the people that live close by. 

The United States must build up battery recycling infrastructure now because in 10 years we’ll be destroying the environment all over again.

For smartphones, Apple and Samsung offer this service, free recycling. 

For household items, like smartphones, power tools, and other devices with batteries, we can usually take them to Lowes, Home Depot, or another store and drop them off. You have to see if they are a recycling center. Not everyone does this, but it gives you a few options. 

To look for a place to recycle lithium-ion batteries, look at these links.

However, to me, a growing issue will be electric vehicles, (EVs). The EV will have a lot of batteries. The good news is that major car companies, Ford, BMW, and others make it very easy to recycle all batteries.

We have to think about how many batteries are in an EV. It’s literally hundreds of pounds. That’s huge. According to this article, batteries in an EV can weigh from 1,000 lbs. to 2,000 lbs. 

As long as the big car companies are going to responsibly take back the cars and recycle them, batteries and all, I am good moving ahead. They all say they have programs in place. They can no longer just sell you a car, they must think about the complete ecosystem from beginning to end.

Eventually, some of these cars will wind up in a ditch, rotting into the earth. It’s only a matter of time. 

An interesting article talking about the problems of EVs and recycling can be found here.

Problem #2 is Cobalt in Lithium-ION from the Congo!

Cobalt and human rights violations. Specifically, where the majority of cobalt is mined, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, (DRC), where human rights are not a priority.

Lithium-ion batteries require lithium, cobalt, and manganese. These come from mines all over the world.

  • Most lithium is mined in Australia and Chile.
  • Most manganese comes from South Africa.
  • Most cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Unfortunately, the DRC is very poor and corrupt. Literally, a third-world country that relies on human trafficking and child labor to mine enough cobalt required to load up EVs with lithium-ion batteries.

How much cobalt is required?

  • A smartphone has about 5 to 10 grams of cobalt in each device. 
  • A laptop has about 1 ounce.
  • An EV has about 10 to 30 lbs. in it. Depending on where you research, any given EV could have 44 lbs. of Manganese, 30 lbs. of cobalt, and 17 lbs. of lithium. Source EVBox blog.  

So, in our effort to save the environment, it’s more like we’re creating new human rights issues along with pushing environmental problems down the road. 

In the DRC we are helping make the problems worse! Child labor and human trafficking are growing due to the increase in demand for cobalt. Not to mention all the environmental hazards near the mines. The chemicals and runoff from the mines create pollution and poison everyone around the mines.  This mining is destroying the land for years to come. Land that once sustained life is now dead and killing all those around it.

EVs to save the environment, yet I sense hypocrisy. I feel like the attempt to clean the air is killing people to get there. Is the first world making their countries better by destroying one third world country?

What makes Cobalt valuable?

It’s a key component in lithium-ion batteries. It makes them last longer and as of today, there is no great substitute. However, Tesla is working to replace it per this article.

Is mining bad?

No, of course not, as long as it is done responsibly. Slave labor and human rights should matter, as well as cleaning up the environment. Ethical mining is very good for the world. It’s done in almost every country, outside of the DRC and a few others. 

Unfortunately, the Congo mines are a mix of bad to worse. While some mining companies there observe the ethical and proper way to do things, most don’t care. Cheap products are more important. The DRC government is an enabler of these atrocities. It breeds lawlessness, militias, and slavery.

In the Congo artisanal mining is common. This is illegal in most of the world due to the dangers that minerals like cobalt, lithium, and uranium can cause. NPR did a nice article, found here

What is artisanal mining? 

It is basically someone digging a hole by hand and extracting minerals without working for any given company or following any rules. It sounds sexy until you realize these people get sick and work endlessly just for a dollar or so a day. No health benefits, no company to help you out, just enough for you to sell what you can carry in the hopes you get enough money to feed yourself. 

Now, imagine children doing this day in and day out alongside their mothers. Eventually, you get very sick. Imagine a mother with a baby strapped to her back, digging in a hole for cobalt.

Why would anyone buy minerals from artisanal miners?

Because it is cheap. Really, really cheap. They take what they’re given and they can’t transport it very far due to government permit requirements and money. 

Should we ban purchasing cobalt from artisanal miners?

Yes, and that’s what the ethical miners are trying to do. Unfortunately, in the Congo, it all gets thrown together without being tracked, basically hidden from where it came from.

That’s the real issue. It is not in anyone’s interest there to stop artisanal mining. Some middleman gets cobalt for next to nothing and hand it over to bigger mines for a little more money. It’s part of the system. 

Artisanal miners make enough to live, as long as they’re healthy enough to dig and carry minerals. Chances are they will die, so it becomes a choice. Do they die now due to hunger? Maybe they die later from hunger or disease. What would you choose?

Why is this still happening today?

Because cobalt is valuable.

Because we’re being lied to about where the cobalt comes from. 

Because turning a blind eye makes it worse, not better. 

Can we blame big business? Apple and Samsung? Tesla and Ford? I believe they are all members of the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA). It’s a start. They’re trying to follow the proper channels.

Can they do more? I believe so. I think they have to stop buying anything from the Congo.

Do I blame the Congo? No, because we’re buying EVs and other wireless devices. We, the end users, are the enablers.

Mining companies (mostly Chinese) are getting rich and feeding a very corrupt system.

Unfortunately, if businesses stop buying Congo cobalt, many will starve and die. I don’t see a happy ending here.

I would like to think American and European companies will pull out, but if they want cheap cobalt, they will turn a blind eye. Where else will they go? Our hope is that we find an alternative to cobalt and lithium-ion batteries.

What are the alternatives to Cobalt?

Yes, Iron-Phosphate batteries.

Elon Musk said that Tesla would move away from cobalt, article here.

Samsung and Panasonic also are moving away from cobalt and towards iron-phosphate, article here.

See https://cen.acs.org/energy/energy-storage-/Lithium-ion-batteries-cobalt-free/98/i29 and https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/adma.202002718.

I don’t see Chinese companies moving away from cobalt anytime soon since they practically have cornered the market on cobalt mining.

How does cobalt mining tie into child labor, human trafficking, and slavery?

The DRC government and local militias run everything. They will continue to do what they want with little regard for lives other than their own.

For example, let’s talk about Kamatanda. The army displaced thousands because the Chinese bought land, which included Kamatanda. According to Siddharth Kara, who wrote the book “Cobalt Red”, after the purchase, the DRC army came in and displaced over a thousand residents so it could be mined. The residents were asked (forced) to leave. They were not given anything for their trouble except their lives. All because what was under the ground was deemed more important than their well-being. 

But hey, they can come back to work in the mines, right?

What is being done for human rights in the DRC?

Unfortunately, every country that goes into the DRC succumbs to high profits in trade for these natural resources. It was originally Belgium and today it’s China. It’s mostly foreign companies running mines there, with the Chinese companies owning most of them. 

It appears China doesn’t care what happens in the DRC. 

However, in the free world, auto companies are trying to make sure they buy companies that do ethical mining of Cobalt. There are groups that look into things like this.

Which automakers have joined the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA? Well, BMW was the first back in 2020, then Ford, VW, Mercedes, Tesla, and others

It appears some businesses will turn a blind eye to the atrocities. That’s why I am so glad Mr. Kara wrote such an impactful book.

Does this remind anyone of blood diamonds?

Going in circles

Our government can’t be blind to this, can they? Of course not, they’re not blind, they just choose to see what matters to them. Unfortunately, it has become electric versus fossil fuels. Again, power plants rely on fossil fuels to create the power to charge batteries.

Remember that power grids fail, don’t they? Without fossil fuels, when the power grid drops, it’s only a matter of time before batteries die.

My point is that we may be solving one problem but creating a new one. Look at the human rights issue. California of all places pushed this agenda and didn’t follow through by looking at this end-to-end.

Also, we have to think of the infrastructure issues. I think we have to turn away from vehicles and start moving towards flying vehicles for people. Think how much we spend on roads, bridges, tunnels, and so on. We could move that money to the electric grid and other utilities. Why are we still relying on wheels?

What prompted this article?

I read 2 books. First, “Cobalt Red” by Siddharth Kara, and second “China’s Second Continent” by Howard W. French. That forced me to look into this matter with a little more enthusiasm.

As many of you know, I currently do what I can to deploy 5G networks. We are on the cusp of moving from Lead Acid batteries to Lithium-Ion batteries. While this doesn’t seem like a major thing, it forced me to look into how these batteries were made. Batteries are such a pain in the ass to work with. When they came out with sealed batteries, I was overjoyed. Why?

Because back when I did fieldwork, I lost more work clothes to battery acid than almost anything else. It’s a slow eater of clothing. Also, I had to carry gallons of distilled water everywhere just in case they were low. 

Occasionally batteries would freeze, explode, or just start leaking. Usually, because the trickle charger was faulty. Yes, back then things failed all the time for no apparent reason. That’s why technicians were so valuable back then. We fixed things without replacing an entire chassis. Just like cars of old. 

Soon, wireless infrastructure will require new backup power sources. Lithium-ion and/or iron-phosphate batteries are a viable backup. I want to be sure that when we make that move, we will be responsible for creating a stable and ethical ecosystem.

Top Cobalt-Producing Countries

  • Democratic Republic of Congo Mine production: 130,000 MT The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is by far the world’s largest producer of cobalt, accounting for roughly 70 percent of global production. The country has been the top producer of metal for some time and reported an output of 130,000 MT in 2022. As cobalt demand rises, increasing attention is being directed at the DRC. However, cobalt mining in the country has been linked to human rights abuses, including child labor. In response, the London Metal Exchange has taken steps to ensure all producers associated with the exchange follow responsible sourcing guidelines. For its part, the DRC passed a revised mining law in 2018 that increased taxes on metals like cobalt and copper. In 2020, the country set up a new state company to buy and market all artisanal cobalt mined in the DRC with the aim of controlling the entire supply chain and boosting government revenue by having more influence on cobalt prices. The DRC is likely to remain crucial to the cobalt market for the foreseeable future. Glencore (LSE: GLEN, OTC Pink :GLCNF) has interests in two mines in the African country, Katanga and Mutanda — key producers of cobalt. Additionally, in November 2022, Trafigura closed a US$600 million financing that it said “would enable it to complete Congo miner Chemaf’s new mechanized mine at Mutoshi, processing plant in Kolwezi, and the expansion of its Etoile mine and processing plant in Lubumbashi.” The deal was contingent on enhanced ESG compliance and responsible sourcing awareness and implementation. The Mutoshi copper-cobalt mine is expected to begin operating in Q4 2023, and will be the world’s third-largest cobalt mine.
  • Russia Mine production: 8,900 MT After falling in 2021, Russia’s cobalt production increased in 2022, rising from 8,000 MT to 8,900 MT. While the country’s cobalt reserves stand at 250,000 MT, Russia is still well behind the DRC in terms of production. Large Russian miner Norilsk Nickel produces cobalt and is among the world’s top five producers of the mineral. With concerns about DRC cobalt running high, some automakers have been calling for increased EV battery production in Europe. There was hope that this push could boost Russia’s future cobalt production — however, that may now be out of the question while the country wages war against Ukraine. As of February 2023, EU sanctions on the country had yet to affect cobalt. However, an April 2022 round of sanctions from the US hit Russian cobalt with a 45 percent duty that will expire on January 1, 2024.
  • Australia Mine production: 5,900 MT Australia saw a large increase in cobalt production in 2022, with output rising by 605 MT from 2021’s 5,295 MT. As is the case for many other countries on this list, cobalt produced in Australia is a by-product of copper and nickel mining. The country’s nickel mines are located in the western part of the country, mostly around the Kalgoorlie and Leonora regions. As the DRC becomes increasingly challenging for miners and as investors try to divert their interests away from Africa, Australia is another country that’s receiving more attention. The island nation may be third in cobalt production, but its cobalt reserves are the second largest in the world at 1,500,000 MT.
  • Canada Mine production: 3,900 MT Canada was the fourth largest cobalt producer in the world in 2022, moving up from fifth place in 2021, although its production decreased in that time from 4,361 MT. As with Australia’s cobalt, Canadian cobalt comes mostly from large nickel and copper mines that produce cobalt as a by-product. Some of these major nickel and copper deposits are Kidd Creek, Sudbury, and Raglan. In recent years, a number of junior miners have rushed to Cobalt, Ontario, to stake land. The site is located near the Quebec border and is known for producing large quantities of silver in the past. It’s still early days for many of these companies, but if they are successful, it is possible that Canada’s cobalt production will rise.
  • Philippines Mine production: 3,800 MT The Philippines is the fifth largest cobalt producer in the world. The country’s cobalt production was up slightly in 2022, coming in at 3,800 MT. The Asian country is also a top nickel producer. The fate of mining in the Philippines was up in the air for awhile as former President Rodrigo Duterte and former Environment Secretary Roy Cimatu called for a shutdown of all mines in the country based on environmental concerns. However, Duterte seemed to have a change of heart in early 2021, lifting a ban on new mine permits in an effort to boost revenues. His successor, President Bongbong Marcos, has ordered the country’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources to enforce stricter guidelines and safety protocols on both small- and large-scale mines. He hopes to bring illegal mining operations into compliance so they can operate legally and with safer conditions for employees.
  • Cuba Mine production: 3,800 MT Cuban cobalt production fell slightly in 2022 to 3,800 MT, down from 4,000 MT in the year prior. The country’s Moa region is home to a joint venture nickel-cobalt operation held by Canadian firm Sherritt International (TSX:S,OTC Pink:SHERF) and General Nickel Company of Cuba. Moa uses an open-pit mining system to produce lateritic ore, which is processed into mixed sulfides containing nickel and cobalt using high-pressure acid leaching. Cubaniquel, the country’s state-owned nickel miner, is the sole operator of the Che Guevara processing plant at Moa.
  • Papua New Guinea Mine production: 3,000 MT Papua New Guinea has made the list of top cobalt producers by country for the fifth year in a row. In 2022, the small country off the coast of Australia produced 3,000 MT of cobalt as a by-product of nickel production, staying nearly flat with the previous year’s output of 2,953 MT. The country’s main cobalt producer is the Ramu nickel mine near Madang, a joint venture between private company MCC Ramu NiCo, Nickel 28 Capital (TSXV: NKL, OTC Pin k:CONXF) and the Papua New Guinea government. 
  • Madagascar Mine production: 3,000 MT Madagascar’s cobalt production was suspended in 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19, leading the country’s output for the year to fall to 850 MT from 3,400 MT in 2019. However, Madagascar’s cobalt-mining industry was on the rebound in 2021, putting out 2,800 MT for the year, and it continued to go up in 2022. Much of the country’s cobalt production comes from the Ambatovy nickel-cobalt mine, owned by Japanese company Sumitomo (OTC Pink:SSUMF,TSE:8053) and the Korean government. The fourth largest island in the world, Madagascar is also a major producer of graphite, another important battery metal.
  • Morocco Mine production: 2,300 MT Morocco’s cobalt production remained stable from 2021 to 2022, coming in at 2,300 MT. The majority of this production comes from Managem Group’s Bou Azzer cobalt mine, which produces the metal as a mono-product. Cobalt from Moroccan mines got a lot of attention in 2019 after major carmaker BMW (OTC Pink:BYMOF,ETR:BMW) announced it would be buying cobalt directly from mines in Australia and Morocco to ensure its supply of battery raw materials is sourced responsibly. In mid-2022, Managem signed a deal with Renault (PAR:RNO) to supply the car manufacturer with 5,000 MT of cobalt sulfate annually for seven years starting in 2025. 
  • China Mine production: 2,200 MT China’s cobalt output in 2022 remained flat compared to 2021. However, the country leads the world in refined cobalt production at 70 percent of total global supply; the material it uses comes mostly from the DRC. The Asian nation is also the top consumer of cobalt, with the vast majority going to the country’s rechargeable battery industry.

Cobalt metric tons mined per country

  • Democratic Republic of Congo – 100,000 tonnes
  • Russia – 6,100 tonnes
  • Australia – 5,100 tonnes
  • Philippines – 4,600 tonnes
  • Cuba – 3,500 tonnes
  • Madagascar – 3,300 tonnes
  • Papua New Guinea – 3,100 tonnes
  • Canada – 3,000 tonnes
  • Tonnes are metric, 1,000 KG in this case.

Joe Rogan’s Interview with Siddharth Kara

An Insiders View to SDN, vLAN and oRAN

OK, we’re talking wireless telecom here. Let’s cover some acronyms first.

  • Radio Access Network = RAN
  • Open RAN = oRAN
  • Virtual RAN = vRAN
  • Concentrated RAN = CRAN
  • Software Defined Networking = SDN
  • bove Ground Level = AGL

How do they tie together? I will tell you.

Small Cell Cover 4

I was reading AGL magazine, http://www.aglmediagroup.com/current-issue/, actually, I was reading the print version. I actually like to read the magazine, and not just to read what the sexy writers say; I am talking to you Don Bishop (dbishop@aglmediagroup.com) and you Sharpe Smith (ssmith@aglmediagroup.com) because those guys are putting out great content almost daily. They also have sexy tower pictures in every print magazine!

Anyway, I digress. I was reading the article about SDN Radio Router Technology for Fronthaul Networks, http://digital.aglmediagroup.com/publication/?i=539366&article_id=3228884&view=articleBrowser&ver=html5#{%22issue_id%22:539366,%22view%22:%22articleBrowser%22,%22article_id%22:%223228884%22} in case you want to read it.

Grant Henderson did a good job showing how the fronthaul can be virtual. This has been an issue in the past, but Verizon has been betting heavy on CRAN. CRAN is where you have the BBU hotel in one location and then, within a certain physical distance, maybe 1 to 2 miles, you have the radio heads all over town or in a large venue. This would look like small cells, but it would have the full functionality of a macro site sector. Why? Because it’s cost effective and it allows management from one location of several cell sites. It also greatly helps spectrum reuse.

In the article mentioned above, Grant Henderson of Dali Wireless, (www.daliwireless.com) does a great job explaining how his SDN radio is an improvement over CRAN by making it a VRAN. Personally, he covered a lot of scenarios. I think he could have started with large DAS systems then maybe do an overview on larger networks.

However, this is a solid lesson that VRAN is going to overtake CRAN in the near future. It also allows the radio heads and BBUs to be core neutral. When the core and the RAN are different vendors, we are coming closer to creating an ORAN system. The openness that the carriers would like to have.

The DAS systems that Grant mentions in his article is a classic example of how there is greater opportunity for the newer RAN vendors to break into new markets. I know it is happening in China, but here in the US, the market is dominated by Nokia and Ericsson with smaller OEMs making inroads. Samsung has been moving into Sprint and Verizon with its 5G push, and it looks like they could make progress with other carriers too if they commit resources to the USA. Airspan has done a great job with Sprint and SpiderCloud, and Ruckus is making a push with small cells and CBRS.

My point here is that the article points out new ideas coming from disruptors that will make the networks seamless no matter who has the core. Ericsson and Nokia have great core solutions, but the RAN could start to open up to all.

Dali Wireless shows that the fronthaul is changing and that the vRAN radio heads can be made to work in a DAS system. It could be iDAS or oDAS, but the SDN radio is making this change possible. Fiber connections are better than ever and allowing more bandwidth to be passed in this equipment. SDN radios are making it possible for the traffic and processing to be offloaded and done on the radio. The BBU can hand off that extra work to the edge router. Now the router is taking away a lot of the distance limitations that are there in CRAN.

We will need to implement this in 5G to make good things happen to the network and meet the high expectations placed with a 5G network. SDN routers are going to be the difference between vRAN and CRAN. It has to happen sooner than later.

Grant has some great DAS designs that I love. I think he could break into the market using these first, then maybe take on larger projects. I would recommend that he would use this to connect several buildings or a stadium. This proves the concept works. Then we have the densification needs of any major city. That is really a very similar concept.

The thing about 5G is that the speeds and bandwidth requirements will depend on densification. Densification is a requirement of broadband because the loading of a site is heavier than ever. Each user will be requesting a lot of bandwidth and if they have an IOT offering but may have hundreds of smaller non-discrete devices on it.

By the way, if you think ORAN is not a big deal, then think again. Even Verizon joined the oRAN group; they were already members of xRAN. They see the future as an open sourced model with the ability to buy radio heads form anyone, not just the bigger OEMs.

I believe the idea if oRAN is to drive down the costs of radio heads and that the model will no longer be a hardware model but a subscription model. This sounds good up front, but the subscription model means endless payments on a network that you can’t shut down with losing all of your customers. They pay licensing now, but they want the CapEx to go down and the OpEx to be stable. It’s going to be a challenge for the carriers in 2022.

The idea of vRAN is not just a hardware and licensing issue. The design will have to be made easier and automatic. If they use massive MIMO heads, that could make that automated. Then you have the installation piece of it, that will not go away, but the carriers have already squeezed everything they could out of that. We’ll see what they do next to reduce costs. The more they drive down installation costs, the more they will drive up permitting costs. That’s what I have seen.

Finally commissioning and integration. They will make as much of it plug and play as possible. That is here for small cells and close for mini-macros. Macro sites still need a full C&I process. I think that PnP will be inevitable where possible.

One thing that has gotten more expensive, backhaul. More fiber strands are required for the new fronthaul systems. You need to be connected and have plenty of bandwidth for data and overhead. It’s going to be more and more demanding. The CapEx will increase as well as the OpEx for backhaul. The only saving grace is that SDN routers and router muxing is improving every day. More data over the same fiber, that’s the next dream.

Maybe wireless backhaul will be a lifeline, but fiber can usually be expanded easier. I love wireless backhaul, but the needs have been outgrowing the rate at which they can improve wireless systems. The good news is that Sprint has plenty of 2.5GHz spectrum to do both backhaul and last mile. Way to go Sprint! Oh, sorry, I mean way to go new T-Mobile!

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Thank you for your time and learning! We’re all learning as we go, any shortcut will help! It adds value.

Be smart, be safe, and pay attention!

See Ya!

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How will Tech differentiate Carriers Going Forward?

Does Wi-Fi need an exit strategy after 5G is released?

This is a legitimate question if 5G does all that they say it does. We already know that 4G will have an exit strategy. We see LTE going away once all carriers convert their systems to 5G, maybe in 2024 or 2025. What about Wi-Fi?

Small Cell Cover 4

Why am I bringing this up? Because I read an article at the link below, that mentions an exit strategy for Wi-Fi.

It talks about using private LTE as an exit strategy for Wi-Fi. I believe that they are showing that an enterprise can have a license free or better yet a lightly licensed CBRS LTE system. They don’t need to have an open system but something that is licensed, somewhat protected, and efficient. Maybe it’s something that the smartphone can use seamlessly with the carrier’s LTE system.

I think that Ruckus and SpiderCloud are going to push the initiative. Why not, it’s a professional system that is slightly better than Wi-Fi. However, many enterprise love Wi-Fi and they are eager to try the 60GHz spectrum.

I can’t wait to see what happens with Wi-Fi, but 5G should be a game changer, and I truly believe that 5G as license free and lightly licensed will be there next big push. Why wouldn’t it? It makes sense to have 5G in all spectrums. That is the way the OEMs and the carriers were going for LTE. Now that there’s something new they should jump to 5G immediately for all spectrums. One technology will make life so much easier.

Also, Qualcomm would be pleased to have licensing of the 5G NR in everything. They would make so much money! There needs to be some competition for 5G.

I think that 5G is an expectation of all systems. Sprint is rolling out 5G in their new massive MIMO system from the start. Article below.

Sprint knows that 5G is going to take over the world and for the first time in a long time they are making a smart technology decision to move ahead. I am only pointing out the WiMAX and Nextel systems that they had to retire. I would imagine they lost a lot of money on both gambles. Anyway, I digress.

The massive MIMO is something that T-Mobile talked about, and the spectrum that Sprint has in 2.5GHz is perfect to roll out LTE and 5G concurrently. No wonder T-Mobile sees the value in this. They have the 600MHz for rural and the 2.5GHz in urban and suburban areas. They would quickly put AT&T in the dust by just rolling out the new systems. That and the John Legere marketing would force the other two carriers to compete or concede.

Now, let’s look at what Sprint did with the Magicbox, WOW! They seem to have all aspects covered, don’t they?

When they have 5G available, will they care as much about Wi-Fi? Sprint hasn’t played up Wi-Fi as AT&T did. In fact, they didn’t see the value like AT&T. T-Mobile, on the other hand, had great success rolling out the Wi-Fi systems and using Voice over Wi-Fi. However, why don’t they push that as much today? I honestly don’t know, but I would think that they didn’t like it as much as they had hoped. Although, it was very popular.

What technology will survive, 5G, LTE, or Wi-Fi?

So which is it? Which one will be around in the year 2025? Will they all be here? Will we be looking at Wi-Fi and 5G and talking about the demise of LTE? Will we just compare 5G to the next thing?

These should be a consideration to futurist. Today, those questions don’t matter. In fact, all we care about is seeing which 5G system will come out first. We are all hoping to see the first 5G smartphones roll out. Then, I would think we would look for the cost-effective chipsets that could be installed into laptops, tablets, and other devices. Not to mention IOT systems that are super cheap.

I guess I am way ahead of myself. To be honest, we need to get through the 5G lab and FIT, right? I am confident it will happen for both FWA and mobility. They need to be released and GA, (General Availability), before we start talking about how great it is.

5G will stumble, all new technology does. But the 3GPP group will right the wrongs, make the problems disappear as they did for 3G and 4G. They are brilliant people and will make 5G better than anything before. They will have more spectrum than ever to see how far we can push the limits. It’s inspiring.

We all know 5G will survive and at some point, LTE will be sunset. I didn’t think it would happen so fast, but the public is hungry for the new “G,” as well as all the marketing people and the OEMs trying to make money off RAN and small cells. It’s an evolved ecosystem that everyone is feeding off of through 2022. After all, we all have families to feed, right?

When I look at the OEMs and see how they scaled back on LTE-U, it makes me wonder if they have changed course. Will they continue to rely on Wi-Fi for offloading or will they push a 5G license-free format? Could it be they are moving towards LTE-U, but not advertising it? It doesn’t seem that way to me. I don’t even hear Qualcomm pushing MuLTEfire anymore, and there is a MuLTEfire alliance!

I wonder, will Multefire change to a 5G format? Would that be the future so that we can have stood along 5G systems? I think if they want that to happen, they need to start pushing that initiative today or it will start to die as LTE-U did.

If I sound confused, it’s because I am. I mean, what direction are we headed? Will the carriers and OEMs run away from LTE altogether, or do they want to have LTE as the offload technology of choice?

Here is what I do know.

  • Not many carriers are looking at unlicensed at this time.
  • They are all concentrating on 5G rollouts and how to make LTE last longer.
  • They are trying to get VoLTE to be stable and reliable.
  • They also want to sunset 3G sooner than later. Maintaining 3 technologies is a nightmare.
  • They want to find an IOT model that works and is cost effective.
  • They need to find new subscribers and break into new markets.
  • They need to boost income and RPU.

I think that covers most of it using today’s standards as a reference.

Evolution is amazing. Remember when having a laptop or even a Kindle with the carriers chip on it made it more valuable. Now we turn on the Wi-Fi hotspot in our smartphones and rely on that to connect the Wi-Fi enabled laptop.

I would say the main reason for that is because indoor coverage is not keeping up with the outdoor coverage. I don’t see the carriers improving it anytime soon.

Who wins?

If looking at technology, who cares, right? This is about who makes money. The licensing fees with 5G and LTE, they win. The OEMs are making the equipment, they win. The carriers sell the service and add new subscribers for new services, they win.

Wi-Fi, the vendors that sell the equipment, they win. People who install the systems, and I mean more than macro sites. Small cell, CRAN, VRAN, DAS, and all the indoor systems, they win. It’s a matter of getting it out to the people.

I don’t see Wi-Fi being sunset for a very long time, in my opinion, it’s already a winner. Why not go with that.

Differentiators:

I am not talking about technologies alone. Sprint and T-Mobile will have massive MIMO and Verizon and AT&T will have FWA. What will the consumer see? What will they experience?

How are the carriers going to differentiate themselves from each other to the consumer? Maybe they can’t! They are trying to differentiate themselves from the cable companies. They will work very hard to make you choose them over the Comcast’s of the world. That’s the new goal. They want to become even more valuable to the end user who wants a mobile device and a high-speed ISP.

Verizon and AT&T already made one move with fiber to the home. Now they are going to make another push with fixed wireless. The more products and services they can get a person to commit to the more that person is liable to stick with them, assuming they treat them right. T-Mobile made sure that customer service and no contracts matter to the end user. The world has changed.

Let me ask you something though. How do they differ from each other? Seriously, if you switch from Verizon to AT&T to T-Mobile, what changes other than coverage? Maybe the price, but how significant is that. Sprint’s last campaign entirely revolved around that one issue. They said, hey, we’re good enough and cheaper, why not go with us. So begins the race to the bottom. Way to go Sprint!

I think of the quote from Seth Godin that states, “How do we know that brands like Verizon and AT&T are essentially worthless? Because if we switched someone from one to the other, they wouldn’t care.” While this is an older quote, it’s more relevant today than ever because what is the difference for mobile coverage?

Ask yourself these questions, then think about the world we live in today:

  • Do you remember when Verizon was the monopoly?
  • In mobile coverage and in landlines, more or less.
  • Do you remember when landlines mattered?
  • Do you remember when you picked a carrier based off of coverage?
  • Do you remember when you went with a carrier because there was something unique about them?
  • Seth Godin’s quote came from one of these blogs; I included both to make the point about Verizon being a monopoly at one time.

The industry has evolved. The carriers are becoming more and more alike. Sprint is in serious financial troubles even though they are running leaner than ever. The cheaper carrier that’s almost as good, say within 1% as good, is struggling to make it until T-Mobile can take over.

Do you know who your carrier is? Of course, you do! It’s the one who gave you the best deal with the best coverage where you need it the most. It was either your decision, or your company had a corporate deal with one of them to save money.

In 5 years, will it matter? What will the differentiator be? Will you decide based off of technology? You might. AT&T had the iPhone exclusively for a year, does it matter now? Will you choose AT&T because they had the iPhone first? Probably not, I mean seriously, who cares today?!?

The choices you make may be personal, perhaps loyalty to a carrier you’ve been with for years. It might be because you were with a carrier whose customer service sucked so bad or they charged you outrageous roaming fees that you swore you would never go back to them. I did that, sorry Sprint, but you really poised me off! How could you do that to me?

Coverage still matters. I can’t tell you how many kids I talked to wanted to go with T-Mobile, but it didn’t work at their house. Why T-Mobile? Because of marketing! The marketing that T-Mobile does focuses almost exclusively on millennials and veterans. T-Mobile is not stupid! They know how to grab attention.

Sprint did something similar by getting the brilliant Paul Marcarelli to take Verizon’s tagline, “Can you hear me now” to telling me that Sprint is good enough with a better price. To be honest, it worked very well. Mr. Marcarelli is still doing the commercials. Let’s face it; he’s a likable character.

What’s next for Wireless Carriers?

Obviously 5G, but now that means more than just a new G, unlike 3G and 4G. It now means that FWA is going to be a reality with the new spectrum. It means that mobile coverage has the potential to rival your ISP if you live within coverage. It means that IOT may become mainstream and affordable to all companies.

The idea of 5G should open up new offerings that the carriers can sell and compete in new industries.

Think of this; TV will change, it already has. Cable is dying, and internet TV in the form of subscriptions services is rising.  Even if they use their TV, how many people rely on the Amazon Fire Stick or Apple TV, it’s an alternative to cable. Think of the millennials, how many watch anything but movies or downloaded shows on any device? Yes, including TVs. They may use Amazon Prime Video or Netflix but either way, it’s not cable.

The world is changing, open up your eyes. The carriers and cable companies need to see this. Comcast is betting heavy on Wi-fi, is that a good bet or will that become obsolete in 2021? Will the carriers create unlimited packages that run from your smartphone to the laptop on LTE or 5G? If you think it’s not possible, think about how Amazon will let you watch the same show on your Kindle, smartphone, or firestick. Carriers need to offer a similar service where you can have unlimited across several devices, just like they do with family plans on a smartphone, expand that to more than the device. That is the dream!

What’s next for Deployment?

The carriers are going to stop upgrading at some point when the systems are good enough. They won’t densify unless they can get a clear payback. They are already reducing all costs, specifically contractor costs, to keep profits high enough for the shareholders to be happy. They are all downsizing.

Is DAS going to continue to take off? Of course, just maybe more of a CRAN distribution.

Indoor needs to get better, but is that through Wi-Fi or LTE or 5G? What is it that will be the foundation for seamless coverage as well as new private wireless systems for new services? Do you really care who’s system you’re on or what price you pay?

It’s not all doom and gloom. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully, it’s not a train coming at us but new services. If the carriers can continue to innovate, like offering an alternative to the cable company as a low-cost ISP. Lucky for them cable TV packages are not so valuable anymore. Think about how many people watch shows, YouTube, Sports, and more on their devices. whether it’s a smartphone, laptop, iPad, or Kindle, they watch more and more on devices.

Will device makers get to have more of a say in the future or will they continue to play catch up?

Will Wi-Fi be here in 2025?

I can’t wait to find out! I hope I’m still working in this industry. Well, maybe not.

Be smart, be safe, and pay attention!

See Ya!

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Will 5G Transform RAN Design?

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I was reading a report from ABI Research, “5G WILL RADICALLY TRANSFORM RAN DESIGN AND TOPOLOGY AS MULTIPLE SPECTRUM BANDS AND USE CASES CONVERGE,” and I had to think about the radical changes we have already seen. However, they were not radical changes, were they? They were a slow evolution of sites. We saw small cells come to life only to become CRAN and cRAN. We have seen the network transform form T1s and DS3s to all Ethernet. Then we saw backhaul go from 1Mbps to 100Mbps to 1Gbps and now 100Gbps.

We have seen edge computing take off only to gradually become FOG computing to lower latency.

We have to see the core go from a fixed regional core to a cloud core.Small Cell Cover 4

Let’s not forget that at one time Wi-Fi was a standalone technology and now licensed is looking for help from Wi-Fi to offload and trying to push unlicensed or lightly licensed LTE and 5G to support them. It’s becoming a ubiquitous network not matter what part of the network you are on.

We all say, “It’s the 5G revolution!”. If you’re in the industry, you know that’s all bullshit, right? We say that because it’s marketing and we love to brag about the latest and greatest technology that will save the world from destruction, or at least make us look cool in front of our peers when we have one of the first 5G devices, right?

It may be radical, but if you’re in the industry, you have seen this coming for a long time.

However, let’s look at the progression of the network over time.

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Spectrum:

We need more spectrum. The FCC granted us more spectrum. What do we have today in the USA?

  • All the original spectrum like 700MHz, 1.1GHz, 800MHz, 2.4GHz, and all the rest of the AWS, PCS and more.
  • All the license-free spectrum, ISM bands,
  • CBRS band,
  • New 600MHz we got from broadcast,
  • The new mmwave like 24GHz, 28GHz, and 39GHz,
  • The really high stuff like 60GHz and 70GHz.

It’s really starting to add up. More spectrum for more services to serve more people in more ways.

Backhaul:

We really need to improve the backhaul. That’s why we use fiber everywhere. Where we can get fiber, we use wireless, but only if we can’t get fiber. It’s all ethernet now. It’s all using faster and better router to lower latency and to have SDN. It has to be smarter than ever because humans could not keep up. We now use a type of AI to define our networks. They have algorithms that make the networks smarter and faster. We need that.

Fog and Edge computing:

We need to have the servers closer to the end-user so that they can lower latency for new applications. I don’t mean just apps, but for the cloud to be more responsive so that Artificial Intelligence and Augmented Intelligence will work better than ever before. It has to be better to that entertainment will see real value in it.

Why entertainment? Because that will lower the cost if larger entertainment dollars are spent on that new experience so that gamers can invest in it to lower costs even more and then, eventually, businesses will use it to lower costs by replacing people to improve customer service.

Applications:

We need new applications to drive new technology and lower costs. We also need more and more revenue coming in to support growth. The old model of adding more users isn’t going to cut it anymore. We need business applications to drive more business and make a new “need” out of these networks.

RAN

We need to discuss more than the RAN: We need to break down the small cells, CRAN, cRAN, macro sites, indoor coverage, licensed and license-free models. Of course, when we say RAN today, it means so much more than just cell sites, doesn’t it? It means the Het Net, densification, backhaul, routing, edge servers, offloading, and more.

The RAN starts at the macro site; they are still the key component. Sprint is making massive MIMO a priority. This goes beyond MIMO as we know it and creates a new era for active antennas. The massive MIMO antennas will be able to increase densification more than ever. This is what Sprint is banking on, having their 2.5GHz spectrum become the go-to spectrum for mobile and fixed. They have plenty of spectrum to use it for 4G and 5G. they have enough spectrum to make mobility or FWA work. They have a key asset there. One that they should have utilized long before 2019. I’m just saying that to sit on this asset is very sad. If they can roll this out, they should have mobility and FWA all wrapped up in one system. This is an evolution that is making inroads to the industry. They are on the bleeding edge of technology.

Another RAN upgrade is that they are deploying 5G radio heads. This will allow more efficiency over the air. LTE has been doing this, but now 5G should open up new doors.

What about the small cells? We don’t hear as much about them in the outdoor play because CRAN and cRAN are taking over. They are making a difference. This is the part of densification that needs to happen to make a real difference in 5G. I am not talking about just coverage here; I am talking about offloading, throughput, and low latency. If you work in RF or Fiber, then you know that distance matters. One of the key components of 5G performance is low latency to run all those fancy apps that we are looking forward to using.

Densification is more than coverage. However, it comes at a cost. The carriers in the US made it quite clear they are not going to foot the bill for small indoor venues. Who can pick up the slack? That’s another article, isn’t it? In fact, I touch on it here, https://wade4wireless.com/2018/11/25/in-building-wireless-the-next-frontier-for-integrators/ if interested.

So, when looking at densification, it’s the macro sites, the outdoor mini macro, and the indoor small cell.

We also need the lightly licensed and the license-free spectrum. These will be built like small cells. They will help to fill the indoor coverage. It’s going to play a role in the RAN network, like it or not. The OEMs have already rolled out LAA and LWA to satisfy this need. The need to get all the spectrum and cells to work together. They need to be tied together in a way that benefits everybody if your goal is to have ubiquitous carrier coverage. If you want a private LTE system, then screw the others and make it an isolated network. Who wants an isolated network? Manufacturing, secure businesses, R&D labs, wireless AI labs or centers, and more. There is a need for private LTE without connecting to carrier coverage, don’t forget that.

It’s not about the network; it’s about being different!

OK, this is something I picked up from a Seth Godin quote that I remember, I had to Google it because I think I heard it in an audiobook, but this blog came up, https://qz.com/work/1461996/seth-godin-does-your-logo-matter/, so I will use that as a reference. Seth said, (notice I said that like we know each other, and he has no idea who or what I am), anyway, Seth said, quote” How do we know that brands like Verizon and AT&T are essentially worthless? Because if we switched someone from one to the other, they wouldn’t care.” Why do I quote this when most everyone reading this is making a living off of the carriers in some way or another? Because it’s true! Look at Sprint, their entire marketing campaign says coverage doesn’t matter, do go with the lowest cost provider, Sprint. Yet, T-Mobile was able to differentiate themselves through “no contracts” and Legere marketing himself as the advocate for the millennials and wireless and through video services.

It is about being the next big thing and loyalty. However, that loyalty is disappearing. Do you know years ago Sprint had great customer service? Right before they merged with Nextel, I was a loyal Sprint customer even though the coverage sucked. Then they merged with Nextel, and the customer service became a customer’s nightmare. They became angry and mean. Many of the carriers had this problem, but I not only left Sprint for this reason and went to Verizon, but I hated Sprint for about 2 years! I mean I told everyone how they screwed me over for two solid years! Then they figured out that keeping customers happy matters and got back on track.

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Why do I say this, because T-Mobile figures this out before any of the carriers! Unfortunately, people have short memories, so what do they have to do next?

Someone has to be different! I don’t mean offering 5G; they are all doing that, so what, someone is first, again, short memories. What can they do to be different? Well, coverage is about the same, densification is about the same, throughput is about the same, what can it be? Can it be the app? Anyone with an iPhone can get almost anything. We can get YouTube, Netflix, Amazon Prime, almost anything on any service.

I don’t have the immediate answer, but I think it could be a few things, and the carriers have to be open-minded, unlike Verizon when they turned down the iPhone for the first time. It could be AI services, free music or movies, or it could be something we don’t know about yet. Unfortunately for many of you reading this, the average consumer could care less about the edge, FOG computing, CRAN, densification, or any of the things that we get excited about. Just ask anyone outside of the industry if SDN will redefine wireless. I would bet the answer will be “huh” or “what?” before you explain it to them. Even after the explanation, they probably won’t care as long as they have 3 bars on their smartphone. Honestly, why would they care, they want bells and whistles, that’s what they are willing to pay for. Honestly, do you see them caring about low latency or IOT? No, they want the services that these features will bring them like AI or a smart thermostat or awesome video of live sports.

For IOT you have SigFox, thinking outside the box to bring a low-cost IOT system across the US and Europe. They are trying to be different and serve a niche. They broke down what they could do well and what the carriers are not interested in doing at this time.

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I admire SigFox because the smaller telecom carriers are struggling to keep up with technology. They can spend the big bucks as the larger carriers do. They have to wait to see what happens; they roll it out based on necessity rather than being first. They have no choice. They are struggling to stay above water.

Listen, this is not a huge transformation, but we need to outline the facts and that it’s been a gradual transformation for each phase and that the OEMs still dominate pushing out many innovators. We need innovation not only for systems and technology but for the business side of it as well. We need to think outside the box and offer customers, maybe a small niche of customers, something that they really want that no one else offers.

Are you up to the challenge? I am trying, and it’s hard. Hard to find out what people are willing to pay for. It’s a challenge to get the word out and make it happen before someone grabs your idea and makes it happen. All we can do is offer it to the world, and hopefully, someone can make it work, even if it’s someone else. Good luck!

In case you didn’t know:

Be smart, learn smart tech at www.wade4wireless.com. For your support, TechFecta offering consulting, tech marketing, writeups, and general guidance. Feel free to hire for the experience and because you like what you read.

Be smart, be safe, and pay attention!

See Ya!

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Do you know what to put in your SOW, the details needed to get paid for milestones or job completion? 

Putting together your smart city tech solutions, planning, development, and more…TechFecta! Guiding you to a better plan through consulting!

The foundations below do beautiful work, spreading love when all seems lost.

Climbers can get seriously injured and/or die on the job. Support the workers who build and install the wireless systems!

Together we can honor and remember the fallen in our wireless family.  

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Hubble Foundation helps the families of climbers in a time of need and beyond with financial support and counseling!

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Tower Family Foundation supports the families of tower climbers at the time of crisis when a climber falls with financial assistance and more.

Is 5G Dangerous to your health?

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An interesting question that I got on Quora, https://www.quora.com/How-is-5G-technology-dangerous-to-your-health that I thought I would share my response.

Here’s the thing, smartphones distract drivers, and people die, that’s one way it could be dangerous.

However, if you’re looking at the problems that RF can cause on the human body, then let’s not look at 5G, it’s not the technology, it’s the spectrum. I read Robert Ross’ answer, and it’s a great answer. I agree with most of it.Small Cell Cover 4

Let me point out a few things that may help you understand what the threat is. First, full disclosure, I work in the wireless industry, I was a tower climber for over 11 years and an RF engineer, and now I work with businesses to roll out wireless systems. Also, I worked with the FCC and OSHA on RF and worker safety.

The technology, like 5G, is not the problem. The problem is the spectrum and the power. The closer you are to the antenna and transmitter, the higher the power. So that’s the first thing to look at. I have conversations all the time where people think that 5G is terrible, it’s not 5G, it’s the spectrum.

The reason people associate 5G with health problems is because the FCC is releasing new spectrum, mmwave, which was used for microwave transmission in the past. Now we need more spectrum for terrestrial connections, so the FCC is “auctioning” it off to the carriers where the FCC will make billions of dollars. They say they put this back into the national debt. It makes you think that the FCC might put spectrum in front of safety, but why would they do that for a measly $10B or so? Not to mention the carriers need it. I am sure that the safety of the

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citizens come first.

This spectrum is 24GHz and 28GHz, and you may think it’s bad. It could be, but the reality is that most devices transmit such low power that it should not have any effect on the human body.

Oh, by the way, do you have Wi-Fi in your home? Not 5G Wi-Fi, but normal Wi-Fi? Or, maybe you go where there is Wi-Fi, like a Starbucks or any coffee shop for that matter. One of the spectrum bands that Wi-Fi uses is 2.4GHz. Do you know what else has 2.4GHz? Your microwave. The difference is that the microwave puts out a lot of power whereas your Wi-Fi unit puts out very low power. Oh, 2.4GHz is perfect for boiling water, that’s why it’s used. Source: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Waves/mwoven.html

Power plays a role because your body protects you from much of the RF that is out there. The sun radiates more than sunlight down on us, the body is resilient and protects us. As humans, we had to push it to the extreme so we may not be as protected anymore.

While the FCC says all this RF is safe, they put regulations in place for the carriers to follow. This is in the USA of course. The FCC has transmit power limits for sites, all sites. They are very strict in the radiation that is close to humans. While they have these regulations, there is no way for the FCC to validate every site, there are 10s of thousands in the US.

While the carriers call them small cell deployments on street poles in residential neighborhoods, many are not a legitimate small cell but a CRAN deployment, which means that they have a full power radio head on a pole. This is what they do in many stadiums as well. The larger radio heads can handle much more loading, which means that they can talk to more and more subscribers than a typical small cell. Heavy loading is what the carriers are hoping to achieve.

So, when you look at 5G, the reason people are so worried is that 5G is trying to promise unlimited coverage. The way to get unlimited coverage is densification. Densification means that the carriers are going to put more and more radio heads closer to the people to fill in all coverage gaps.

This is what you should be worried about, all those hotspots, just like your Wi-Fi in your home you added to offload data. It all adds up.

It’s more than the carriers. We now have smart meters, wireless controllers in cars, your smartphone, your laptop, your headset running Bluetooth in the 2.4GHz range, and any other device that communicates wirelessly. It’s everywhere.

If you think it’s affecting you, there are a few symptoms that you could look at like;

  • ringing in your ears like tinnitus,
  • headaches,
  • feverish,
  • sickness in your stomach.

These are all extreme, but as someone who worked on towers, just a few inches from many of these antennas, you learned what to look for. One more significant thing, unless you are getting hit with heavy RF, you may be affected differently than someone else. It seems that some people have a lower tolerance than others.

I wrote a few articles about how climbers got sick while working too close to a TV broadcast antenna. This is all too common in our industry. I also know of others that worked on Wi-Fi systems that put the hotspot too close to their head and got sick. I have also gotten radio burns while working on antennas and radios in vehicles for police, fire, and ambulances. It happens. I got better because our bodies are resilient.

I know this is a lot to take in, I hope this helps.

To learn more, I have several blogs that covered this:

 

Be smart, learn smart tech at www.wade4wireless.com. For your support, TechFecta offering consulting, tech marketing, writeups, and general guidance. Feel free to hire for the experience and because you like what you read.

Be smart, be safe, and pay attention!

See Ya!

More products from TechFecta and Wade4Wireless that support WADE!

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 Get the Wireless Deployment Handbook today!

 

 

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Do you know what to put in your SOW, the details needed to get paid for milestones or job completion? 

 

Putting together your smart city tech solutions, planning, development, and more…TechFecta! Guiding you to a better plan through consulting!

 

The foundations below do beautiful work, spreading love when all seems lost.

Climbers can get seriously injured and/or die on the job. Support the workers who build and install the wireless systems!

Together we can honor and remember the fallen in our wireless family.  

official logo

Hubble Foundation helps the families of climbers in a time of need and beyond with financial support and counseling!

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Tower Family Foundation supports the families of tower climbers at the time of crisis when a climber falls with financial assistance and more.

 

In-Building Wireless, the next frontier for Integrators

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For in-building wireless to become carrier friendly, the carriers need to decide how they want to grow indoor coverage. They already admitted they don’t want to put DAS and small cells in every building. They are attempting to cover form the outside in.

Unless the venue is large, they won’t be putting anything in a building if they don’t have to. So, what is the alternative?Small Cell Cover 4

Well, I have some ideas. They need to align with partners and be willing to roam like they do with Wi-Fi.

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Carriers need to utilize CBRS and LTE-U for their systems. This means that the handset makers need to add that spectrum and functionality into the handsets. They probably will push back but if they don’t then the carriers will have to rely on Wi-Fi to offload everything. I don’t see them doing that, especially for voice. They’re going to find other ways to get in.

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Here is what I see, system integration and going to buy smaller OEM small cells in the CBRS and LTE-U bands to create private LTE systems. They will make deals with building owners, managers, and management companies. Then they can offer their service as an add-on for the carriers to roam onto it. It’s like DAS, but instead, a DRS, Distributed Radio System where someone builds the in-building network and allows the carrier to roam onto it.

Everyone wins except the integrator that wants to monetize. They will have to come up with a way to get paid. The carriers won’t pay much, if anything, to roam into a building they don’t care about in the first place. They just don’t care anymore. I’m not saying “Build it, and they will come” either because hope is not a strategy. What I am saying there is a way to become more valuable by assisting the carrier and building your own business model. Maybe by becoming the ISP for the building.

The integrator will need to supply more than RF in the building. They will need to supply Wi-Fi along with the other technologies and spectrums. They may also need to supply backhaul and edge computing systems to accommodate the needs of 5G. Perhaps even data closets to serve the building. The models are changing, and the opportunity is growing. The carriers can’t, (or won’t), do it. They won’t spend the money unless they have a serious payback model. The integrator has an opportunity to supply backhaul and more.

If you think this model won’t work, then why is Comcast using a similar model wherever they go? They will install Wi-Fi in a building for a low-cost if they have the backhaul access to the building. They make the real money off of internet access to backhaul and maintain the Wi-Fi system. This would be almost the same thing, but it would be an outlet for the carriers to roam onto and offer the end-user a Private LTE and/or 5G systems. That’s the way we want to go.

It has to make sense for all involved. Do your due diligence when you research the models. It’s not cheap to roll something like this out.

This is something like the Crown Castle is already are doing with smart poles that they roll out. Those guys were ahead of their time when they started this model. They supply all the features in hopes that the carriers will pay to go on. They need to pay for power, backhaul, and rent. It all adds up to success for Crown.

Just think “neutral host” of small indoor buildings. It will be the next wave if the spectrum is available and the models can break even or even turn a profit.

It looks like partnerships will be a crucial denominator for in-building coverage to move forward. Partnerships between building owners, OEMs, vendors, engineers, suppliers, and management companies. Then the partnership between carriers and the system manager.

The carriers have to get the spectrum and technologies in the handsets so that all of this can move forward.

Spectrum and technologies will need to be considered. We all know that Wi-Fi is almost everywhere. Will CBRS and LTE-U buildup like that? What about license-free 60GHz that was supposed to be Wi-Fi? Will mmwave start to roll out everywhere if the equipment is cheap like regular Wi-Fi?

The problem will be payment. Who will pay for these systems? Who will build them and who will maintain them? Is there s solid business case to move ahead? I think to do this we need to look outside the carriers. We need to look at more than just the Wi-Fi in the building. What other services can we offer?

Think IOT for devices, tracking, switch control and meter reading. Think of the thermal control we could have in each specific area of the building. Think of security, alarms, emergency lights and switches that could help someone. Think of the tracking we could have through the building as well as helpful apps on someone smartphone to guide them to a specific place to buy something. Here is a way to make the landlord your customer. Perhaps they need to track items in the building using RFID, or they need to monitor temperature systems and water pressure using smart meters. They may want to read the electric and gas meters more than once a month using smart meters. This is all possible when you build the in-building wireless system. Even smart lighting could be implemented if they want to pay for it.

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We have to become creative in looking for revenue. A smart building will have a use for almost everything I mentioned above. They need to track everything to maintain the building’s environment. They may have to track people or equipment so that nothing gets lost. They may need to provide such an efficient building that the payback exceeds the system installation and maintenance. Good luck proving that, but I have seen that to be the case. Smart buildings were a luxury in the past, today they’ve become an expectation. It’s also more affordable than ever.

That’s the thing with Wi-Fi, it’s very cost-effective, i.e., cheap. It’s a great alternative to offload, but it just doesn’t play well with LTE. Now, we are evolving to 5G, will that change? Will 5G turn back the hands of time to accommodate an older technology? Probably not. So, when you go into a building to do the Wi-Fi and backhaul, remember that it could be the foundation for an IOT system, a DAS or DRS system. It could be the foundation for all the additional service you can see at the time of the Wi-Fi installation. Let’s not forget any retail that uses their iPads for a POS, (Point of Sale), system.

We’ll need to offload, but with 5G, will the new spectrum solutions eliminate the need to offload? Will the present unlimited data plans make it so that we only need our smart device in most cases? These are all questions we’ll be able to answer in 2020. For now, let’s move ahead with what we know and build up the in-building wireless systems with what we have, Wi-Fi, LTE-U, and CBRS. Let’s add DAS or DRS systems today.

The integrators need to think outside the box. It’s not just about DAS, is it? It’s not just about Wi-Fi or CBRS, but it’s about the package. The backhaul, the edge servers, the routing, easy access, and so on. Also, don’t forget that the building owner will want a piece of the pie. They need to get something for allowing you in their building. It no longer makes sense to pay a flat fee for rent, but if you can sign up the tenants, then you have an income stream that you can share with the building owners or managers. They want to get paid and to be honest; it’s good business.

Be smart, learn smart tech at www.wade4wireless.com. For your support, TechFecta offering consulting, tech marketing, writeups, and general guidance. Feel free to hire for the experience and because you like what you read.

Be smart, be safe, and pay attention!

See Ya!

More products from TechFecta and Wade4Wireless that support WADE!

5g-deployment-plan-front-cover-3k-pixels

 Get the Wireless Deployment Handbook today!

 

 

SOW Training Cover

Do you know what to put in your SOW, the details needed to get paid for milestones or job completion? 

 

Putting together your smart city tech solutions, planning, development, and more…TechFecta! Guiding you to a better plan through consulting!

 

The foundations below do beautiful work, spreading love when all seems lost.

Climbers can get seriously injured and/or die on the job. Support the workers who build and install the wireless systems!

Together we can honor and remember the fallen in our wireless family.  

official logo

Hubble Foundation helps the families of climbers in a time of need and beyond with financial support and counseling!

tower-family-foundation-e1447069656192

Tower Family Foundation supports the families of tower climbers at the time of crisis when a climber falls with financial assistance and more.

 

Will 5G be the death of LAA and LWA?

Did anyone realize that moving up 5G may kill other technologies? With all the fuss and arguments that Wi-Fi had with LTE-U, it turns out it may not be so vital anyway, now that 5G is coming. Wi-Fi has such a hold on us that we can’t imagine life without it. But will it be part of the 5G ecosystem?

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To be clear and blunt, 5G NR will be the death of LTE in about 10 years. The real question will be if 6G will be another forklift upgrade or simply an improvement on 5G. Originally, we all thought that 5G would include LTE, I know I did, now it’s becoming clear that LTE is going to slowly, painfully, fade away.

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We needed more and more throughput, so LAA and LWA were born. I know that there will be a new aggregation with 5G and LTE-U, LTE, and CBRS. I would think that even Wi-Fi and 5G may play well together. But what out all the technology improvements made to squeeze more throughput out of LTE?

Well, LTE isn’t going anywhere today. It will need to continue to improve for a two to four more years. It came a long way already. But is LTE-U still critical? Maybe for the next 3 or 4 years. It is a good supplement to the existing systems. However, it may not last nearly as long as Wi-Fi. Everyone loves Wi-Fi and understands it. Qualcomm promised us that MulteFire would be just as easy, but we never really saw much of it in the real world, did we? Device makers didn’t put it in the devices on a mass scale, and you can’t buy the hardware anywhere like Wi-Fi. It just took too long to get to market. The carriers played with it, and we’re looking forward to having LTE in the unlicensed bands. Again, too slow to market.

Will LTE-U fade away or will the carriers push to use it? Sadly, I see it fading away. Wi-Fi backers must be happy, but they were not the LTE-U killer, were they? It was really 5G NR, which ironically, Qualcomm pushed to get out. They also pushed MulteFire for LTE-U. Is Qualcomm killing its own products? However, 5G will have a huge payback, won’t it?

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I think the larger OEMs wanted to keep LTE-U for the carriers. How did that work out? What kind of numbers were deployed? Hundreds or thousands? Probably hundreds if they’re lucky. They should have pushed more cost-effective private LTE-U networks.

When 5G gets built, they will want to have it where it makes sense. So, LTE will be around for a long time until 5G matures. As aggregation goes, Wi-Fi will continue to be the offload whereas CBRS may be the best offload alternative in the USA. Maybe LTE-U will be part of that solution if it is cheap and easy to deploy. So LWA for Wi-Fi may not gain the ground it once did, in fact, it may fade away until they find a way to do something similar with Wi-Fi and 5G.

LAA may continue to roll out but will it be LTE-U or CBRS that will be the player? I am assuming CBRS, even though there aren’t many live systems. Chances are good that the CBRS systems may be the 5G NR format.

For those point to point links, or short multipoint links we have the 60GHz range which will handle high throughput areas in buildings. I am curious how the mmwave bands will play out, I brought up 60GHz because it will be license free, but the carriers are purchasing mmwave in the auctions here in the USA. The FCC is freeing up spectrum for them to grow.  How will device makers add that to their devices? I can’t wait to see.

The question in mmwave, will it be licensed or unlicensed that becomes a bigger player? I see the licensed for the carriers, but we all want to play in the lightly licensed and unlicensed zones because it’s free. The carriers won’t want to play there because it’s free. unless they need to offload.

When we look at 5G, we expect new devices that will handle everything in the 5G spectrum as well as all the legacy technologies. Most devices will need to have many technologies in them like 5G, LTE, and Wi-Fi which all need to work in many bands, including mmwave. Maybe Wi-Fi and LTE-U to work in the ISM bands. Maybe even 60GHz to work in the license-free spectrum. Devices will have more and more crammed into those little packages.

We expect 5G everywhere, and it will mature as well. We expect to see the 5G version of LAA, LWA, and anything else we can imagine. If 5G is as great as they say, hypothetically it shouldn’t need any of those technologies, right?

Listen, the transition will not happen overnight. LTE will be here a long time. Look how many carriers still have 3G alive and working. In fact, they may rely on 3G for voice since they waited so long to spend money on the VoLTE upgrade. FYI, as far as I know, there is no voice solution outside of apps to provide voice on 5G as of November 2018.

The goal is to maintain as few technologies as possible like maybe 5G and 4G. The old 3G is a drain on resources. IT doesn’t happen overnight though, does it? Old technology dies slowly if customers have devices that they rely on. IT’s going to take time and look at how hard it was to kill 2G. On Star and services like that relied on that service being around longer than it was. It’s going to be harder and harder for service like that to keep up. Especially when cars last 5 to 10 times longer than any smartphone.

The wireless ecosystem expands beyond the smartphone. It goes out into all the verticals that are building business cases for it. Just like we expect to use 5G for more than voice communication. We expect to use it for more than internet browsing and testing. We want to build IOT systems, controls AI and AR systems. Are these wise investments I the technology will be replaced in 5 years?

Didn’t LTE mean Long Term Evolution? How long did that last? Roughly 5 years so far and we’re already doing another upgrade of new wireless technology. This 5G was supposed to be a software upgrade, but it isn’t. At some point, we have to stabilize the hardware the best we can, even though the OEMs will hate that. It will eventually need to software be defined if the hardware can keep up with the advances. Sorry, I got off point.

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Back to the original question, will 5G play with other technologies? I think it has to because we’re not just looking at the carriers here. Wi-Fi has been around for decades and is NOT going anywhere. In fact, it can support 5G just not in LWA. I also think that LTE-U and CBRS will allow smaller private systems to be built, whether they are LTE or 5G has yet to be seen. If 5G NR is available to the public, why not build that system and then allow the carriers to roam onto it? I think that’s how the future systems will have to work.

Will private LTE systems start to roll out? Will the carriers still look at LAA to assist the broadband throughput? How will this happen? If 5G can deliver what it says it can.

Here’s the thing, few carriers have enough spectrum to make this happen. Why do you think there is a rush towards mmwave? It’s because most carriers don’t have the spectrum that Sprint has in the 2.5GHz spectrum. They need to supplement what they have. They need to plan for smaller cells to break down the spectrum and make it more efficient for reuse.

5G will need to align with the additional technologies and spectrums.

Also, license free will be quick and easy to deploy as systems grow. Carriers won’t have 5G everywhere until maybe 2023 if we’re lucky., It all depends on what the payback for the 5G is initially as they roll out in the heavy suburban areas.

By the way, when is the last time you read about anything in the news about LTE-U?

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Breaking down the walls with 5G Open RAN

COP Banners for Wade4wirelessWhen I say walls, I mean several things:

  • Interoperability – LTE has done a great job of forcing OEMs to play well together. Ericsson and Nokia and Cisco have to get along and share parts of the end to end ecosystem.
  • Security – open systems tend to be less secure than if one OEM has complete control.
  • Cheaper hardware – look at Wi-Fi, the hardware is so cheap. If LTE and 5G equipment will follow that path the hardware will be dirt cheap, but there will be a licensing aspect that will regulate everything.
  • Licensing – this is how the OEMs and suppliers will make money going forward. The licensing ensures that the software will stay up to date and security stays intact.

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Most carriers are pushing for open architecture systems. Groups like Open RAN, now merged with XRAN to form the ORAN Alliance, more can be found at http://www.xran.org/news/ if interested. I think they want to drive down hardware costs. They are already pretty low and manufactured in China. In fact, most of the engineering is probably done there as well. Carriers have a score to settle with the OEMs, they want to have more competition. This would be great if it wasn’t so damn hard to get something approved to be on their network in the first place. I admire OEMs for their persistence, at least the ones that can afford to support lab and FIT of their products.

This is good and bad news for OEMs. I would think that the smaller OEMs could specialize in one thing, like a radio head, BBU, or maybe even software that is specific to that function.

This is probably the way systems will be connected. It will break down the RAN much like the carriers have broken apart the end to end system. In the days of 3G, CDMA and GSM you pretty much had one vendor from core to radio. Now, you can have many different vendors in the core because most of it is software driven with COTS, (Common Off the Shelf) servers and routers. Most everything in LTE was software driven except for the BBU and Radio Heads.

Now, with 5G, it may be broken down even more. The fronthaul is becoming interoperable as CPRI and eCPRI become open. Now the carriers will have the ability to use anyone’s radio head, like what digital DAS vendors were doing with Alcatel-Lucent when they came up with CPRI.

Now, eCPRI will open up a faster interface.

Open RAN changes more than the tower site. As small cells and CRAN become commonplace, this means that the carriers could have the vRAN. Virtual RAN and had multiple vendors radio heads out at the sites. They could have a BBU hotel, in the case of CRAN, in one are with one OEM’s BBU system while remote they have another OEM’s radio heads. This means that the system will be broken down even more than before.

The purpose of the Open RAN Alliance is to do just that, to break the OEMs down to a manageable size where the carriers will be able to negotiate the hardware prices down. This has already worked, the hardware is cheaper than ever, but now it’s the licensing they have to work with. Licensing is where everyone is trying to make more money in this software-driven world.

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So, the carriers were able to lower the hardware cost and shop around for a specific product. For instance, let’s imagine a system breakdown, theoretical of course.

  • Cisco makes a reasonable prices cell site router, CSR.
  • Ericsson has a great core solution, maybe that’s how they want to go.
  • Then Nokia could have a great BBU solution; they could provide that.

  • Then Samsung could provide reliable radio heads; they could provide that.

The problem is getting them all to work together. Don’t get me wrong, they will work together, but whenever there is a problem, there will be finger-pointing. You know what I mean, many problems are going to be network related, and everyone is going to point the finger at Cisco. Actually, the other vendors may give Cisco the finger, even though it’s not their fault. Things get ugly when working with multivendor systems.

What happens to fix that problems are that one OEM has a really smart guy that figures out the problem then works with the customer to identify the other players and what they’re doing. It’s hard to figure out sometimes, even if you have just one OEM.

This is why 5G won’t be any different. It’s going to be software driven. The radio heads need to be spectrum specific, but the rest of the system could just process the services and application the way that carrier wants. It may be optimized for specific services. Video data for movie or video for short YouTube videos. Maybe for gamers, they have AR for the users. Maybe it’s for IOT with short data bursts. Maybe it’s sliced to serve all the above.

The carriers have a conundrum; they have to service subscribers that may want just one or all of the services. Whom do you prioritize? The carriers need to find their NICHE, at least T-Mobile and Sprint do. I think that Verizon and AT&T are big enough that they will try to serve all niches. The big boys will be surprised when T-Mobile and Sprint roll out their 5G systems; they will need to find their niches. Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile are putting a lot of eggs in the mmwave basket; we’ll see how that pans out. I hope it’s a raging success, but new technology takes time to be adopted.

So, the infrastructure market will eventually become a cost war. That’s right, a race to the bottom for the carrier that has low expectations. The OEMs need to offer services and support. They will need to stay on top of the costs yet provide amazing applications and reliability. They also will need to provide a low-cost of operation.

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Will we see a Wal-Mart for equipment? I think that we already have seen that with the rise of Ubiquity in Wi-Fi. Will Ubiquity provide carrier class equipment? Ruckus has been fairly successful providing carrier-grade equipment in the Wi-Fi market. They had an uphill battle, but it seems to have been working. Now that CommScope owns them, we’ll see if the success continues. CommScope has many weapons in their arsenal, but can they execute? We’ll see.

But what about control?

How will the carriers maintain control and security if they use too many vendors? Will the carriers sacrifice security for the cost? It seems that way. Look at how software made available to the masses gets hacked. It’s expected in today’s world. So, then they will need to beef up security on their infrastructure for more than what’s available to the public. They will need to worry about an outside force taking control of the RAN and core. While this may not seem likely, think about what’s at stake.

If someone can access the RAN and core, they could mimic what the NSA is doing and track and the caller in that system. Maybe do more than getting free airtime, but actually gain access to secure lines. It’s a potential threat. We rely on the carriers for our security as well as out private information.

If you think about the private information that gets hacked, imagine what someone could do if he or she got control of the core and the system. They could take it down, control users, and tap voice and data conversations. This may be possible now, but in an open system, it may be more of a threat.

With the good, lower costs and higher competition, comes the bad, potential security threats. It’s not all roses in an open architecture system, and I want to make that clear. I am sure that the carriers are weighing the problems as well and the advantages. Unfortunately, the lower cost is probably winning out.

Open the door to disruptors.

One thing I hope we see are disruptors in this market. If you don’t think we have seen any lately, look at what Airspan has done with Sprint’s Magic Box and SpiderCloud has done with enterprise small cells. These companies proved that with patience, tenacity, and a good product you can break into the carrier’s market.

Now with open architecture coming, we should see these and more disruptors entering the radio head market, the BBU market, and the software market.

5g-deployment-plan-front-cover-3k-pixels

I look forward to seeing who can do it. I have already talked to groups that have products, software, and application that could improve today’s systems. The problem is that with the major OEM’s chokehold on the carriers it will be hard for them to gain ground. They need to find their way to the carrier to improve the existing systems. I see that happening in 1 to 3 years.

Resources:

Be smart, learn smart tech at www.wade4wireless.com. For your support, TechFecta offering consulting, tech marketing, writeups, and general guidance. Feel free to hire for the experience and because you like what you read.

 

Be smart, be safe, and pay attention!

See Ya!

More products from TechFecta and Wade4Wireless that support WADE!

5g-deployment-plan-front-cover-3k-pixels

 Get the Wireless Deployment Handbook today!

 

 

SOW Training Cover

Do you know what to put in your SOW, the details needed to get paid for milestones or job completion? 

 

Putting together your smart city tech solutions, planning, development, and more…TechFecta! Guiding you to a better plan through consulting!

 

The foundations below do beautiful work, spreading love when all seems lost.

Climbers can get seriously injured and/or die on the job. Support the workers who build and install the wireless systems!

Together we can honor and remember the fallen in our wireless family.  

official logo

Hubble Foundation helps the families of climbers in a time of need and beyond with financial support and counseling!

tower-family-foundation-e1447069656192

Tower Family Foundation supports the families of tower climbers at the time of crisis when a climber falls with financial assistance and more.

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