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FirstNet RFP, Deploy if you Dare!

January 21, 2016 Wade Leave a comment

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The FirstNet RFP was released! Can you believe it? I started working on this back in 2011 making material for the pending RFP, and here it is in 2016. I was so excited until I looked at all of the documentation, wow! There is so much. However, I am not going to break it all down, I just want to give a high level view of what it will mean to the deployment teams. Deployment will not happen until 2017, installations mid to late 2017, but when it does, there will be plenty of work.

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So, what does this mean to the wireless deployment community? Well, almost nothing until 2017. Let’s face it, to go through this it will take some time. FirstNet expects their responses to come in April where they will need to review it and see who can do it. Unless you work on the RFP response, 2016 won’t mean much to you. The way the RFP is written, it may not matter anyway.

Who can do it? It will take a carrier. It will not happen too quickly even though they want it too. I see AT&T having the best shot at doing this. I think Verizon would be a great competitor but I get the feeling they’re not interested mainly because they always answer with “No comment” when asked. Either they are still deciding or they don’t’ want to.

One thing that will hold back integrators is the penalty they will get if public safety does not subscribe, Donny Jackson wrote an article here. Isn’t government great when they want a sustainable system? They can just say that you have to pay them or don’t bid. That will hold back integrators because FirstNet is really looking for carriers, not integrators. In fact, it could even hold back the carriers. They already have working models without the potential penalties. FirstNet is doing all that they can to hold back the number of bidders. I am reading through the RFP, but I didn’t see this section just yet but I do see the minimum payments part. Maybe I missed it but I was more concerned with the actual equipment and services. If this is the case, why would anyone take this on? Even AT&T has to think it might not be worth it unless they see value in the spectrum. Is AT&T is willing to pay this as a fee to get more spectrum, after all, FirstNet can’t sell it. Will AT&T set up a public safety sales division to sell to public safety groups nationwide? It may become more of a headache than an asset but they may do it for the additional spectrum.

T-Mobile might do this for spectrum as well, but will they tackle something like this? Probably not. They may not want to deal with the extra work or the potential for bad press or the penalties. It probably isn’t on their roadmap unless they really, really want the spectrum.

I don’t see Sprint doing it. They are a mess and need to worry about their own system before they deploy another system.

It looks like FirstNet really pigeon holed this RFP towards carriers, nationwide carriers who already have a system built and running. All the anticipation in the industry and now it looks like no integrator would want to touch it with these crazy penalties. However, I guess you can sell your own devices on this spectrum and that may be a source of revenue. If you can’t get the public safety groups to go on it then it may be an additional way to load the network. They will like it until there is an emergency and the spectrum is pulled away from the consumer for emergency responders, but if no public safety group is on it then why bother?

Selling public safety is more than just providing a great deal, it also has to do with politics. Some groups may sign up to support the network and others may not just because they don’t believe in it. It’s not like the carrier market where you do have loyalty, but mostly people sign up for coverage and price, maybe to get a cool phone but you can put almost any phone on any network in today’s world.

Now, the deployment scenarios.

Timeline – with the RFP being released in January of 2016 and being due in April, there may be an extension so let’s say May. Then FirstNet need to evaluate the responses, which it may only be AT&T. If there are a lot of responses then it may take the rest of the year. Once they pick a winner then the negotiations and final contract talks need to be completed. Then the deployment will happen. I say 2017 with RF design and site acquisition then site design, structural engineering, and then installation, commissioning, integration and finally optimization. If it’s an AT&T then it will be treated as an expansion or system growth, not really a new deployment. Installation probably happening mid to late 2017, all the way through 2019.

A new carrier with a system integrator – this would be where a new carrier would partner with a Harris or Motorola. If they got it then there would be many RFPs coming out to expand. First they would need to work with an OEM to deploy. The RFP is so much more than that, but let’s just concentrate on deployment. They would need to secure tower space, create a massive RF design, then site design, then deploy. I don’t know what the deployment strategy would be but it would be a lot of work and the equipment may not be ready until mid to late 2017 to be mounted. Antennas, cables, and eNodeBs would all need to be ordered which they may have something or they may not. It would be close to what Verizon has to maybe it would not take so long to develop. Maybe 6 months. Then the installation could begin. Logistics would be a major factor. Get ready for RFPs out the wazoo if that happens.

It’s too bad that LightSquared is in dire straits because this would be a good play for them or a start-up if they can sell their own products on this system and FirstNet would pay them to do it.

Carrier – If a carrier wins, like T-Mobile, Verizon, or AT&T, then I would imagine they would treat it like an expansion and try to deploy it along with whatever else they have to deploy. The only problem they have would be reporting progress back to FirstNet on a regular basis. The deployment teams would again probably not start until mid to late 2017 because of the design and the equipment details. You see, AT&T has to worry about the existing leases so they need to decide if they can get a new radio head and antenna or if they have to add new sectors altogether. I would think they could expand but the leases have to go through before they can do much of anything. The sad part of this is that AT&T will go back to the turf model, so they will need to be sure that all the climbers are certified and safe. It will be a challenge because this is a federal project so they will be deploying under a microscope.

For the deployment teams, more work! RF Design will be needed. For tower leasing companies, it should mean a lot more revenue! For site design and structural engineers, so much more work! You all have the upfront work to do so the installation and integration teams can get to work. Then the optimization will happen. This should be over 3 years of macro deployments nationwide. It all depends on who you’re already aligned with.

If you’re thinking about small cells and DAS, I would think any of that would happen until late 2018, unless AT&T wins, then it may happen sooner. FirstNet will need better coverage, so the indoor coverage will matter at some point. To achieve this they will need small cells all around, inside and out. I see this as a huge boost for the small cell deployments. Unfortunately it won’t happen until 2018 at the earliest, 2019 is more likely.

So get out there and deploy America! Deploy for your country to finally have a nationwide broadband network so that they can watch everyone on live video feeds at will! Oh, don’t get me wrong, I see big brother watching, but who has time to watch everyone, seriously, who? This network will help public safety teams do so much more. The police will have live video available to track bad guys. Fire and Ambulance can use it to send medical data back and forth so they can treat someone live in the field and on the way to the hospital to save lives. The game commission can use it so that I can watch the eagles in their nest, like this one in Pa. I can’t wait. Just as long as the government doesn’t mandate cat videos on YouTube, then I am good.

Just think if we could see the first responders in real-time with their body camera video, how cool would that be? At least the 911 dispatch could get a glimpse of what’s happening real-time so they could call for back up or medical if needed. Really, that’s a game changer.

By the way, all of this has been done so far with the FCC spectrum auction money, not tax dollars. I hope they can sustain it without tax dollars, but only time will tell. They put penalties in there because they thought the spectrum was so valuable that people would live with it, will they? Time for a reality check! The response to the RFP will tell the tale.

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To see the FirstNet RFP, go to http://firstnet.gov/ to learn more and download it here, https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=7806696f4340f16474647ccc57805040&_cview=0 and they had a webinar, the slides are available here, http://www.firstnet.gov/sites/default/files/Jan-15%20FirstNet%20RFP%20Webinar%20Presentation_0.pdf in PDF format.

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Give to the Hubble Foundation because if you don’t help these families, who will? Who supports Hubble? The wireless workers and the tower climbers, that’s who! With no support from the carriers or NATE, so it’s up to you! What if it were you? Would you want help? Who would help you if you were hurt? Who would help your family, your spouse, your children if something happened to you? Do you see the people who are hurt?

2016 WD4Cast

January 11, 2016 Wade Leave a comment

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The 2016 Wireless Deployment Forecast Edition!

OK, so I thought it would be nice to see where we think the deployment industry will go in 2016. So I look at this as the Wireless Deployment Forecast, WD4Cast. What is happening with small cells, DAS, the carriers, FirstNet, and the deployment industry? I give you my views here, from a high level of course and this is my perspective. Keep in mind this is an educated guess based on what I see today. I sure don’t believe much of what AT&T says after they completely killed deployment in 2015, remember that? I am sure that MasTec does because they had to lay off a slew of people and watch their training facility fill with cobwebs.

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600MHz Auction. I may bring up the 600 MHz in this but if the auction is this year then the carriers won’t have much until next year. They will wait for the OEMs to have a radio head before they can do much. Each carrier will have their own specifications. So I see 600MHz happening in 2017 but they may prepare for it in 2016. However, the broadcasters will have their hands full with the changes that are to come. Will they just decommission and retire? Will they move to a new band? Will they just merge with another carrier and share the digital channels. Let’s face it, more broadcast channels didn’t need the new channels that they got when they went digital, so why not share? It makes sense to me but I really don’t know what the FCC implications would be. It sounds like a great idea if a broadcaster could lease out the other channels they have for over the air, OTA, coverage. Or they could split the maintenance and lease costs with the new partner. Just a few suggestions.

Deployment will increase this year. We all expect so much but the carriers don’t want to spend more than they have to because they want to see an increase in revenue. While AT&T says that, look at the DirecTV acquisition, they want to grow new sources of revenue, so they stopped the wireless growth for a year. They also want to come up with a better way to deploy. They originally thought that they could put a car on top of a tower, or at least the equivalent of the weight of a car, but they had to rethink that. So maybe they are trying to figure out how to deploy properly. Whereas Verizon and T-Mobile decided to build more sites over the past 2 year and it seems to be working very well. They are getting the biggest bang for each dollar they spend on spectrum, how cool is that? By building more sites they can shrink the cell coverage, alleviate the loading, and improve customer experience. What a concept! Now that they figured it out maybe the other carriers will follow suit.

Let’s talk FirstNet. If you’re on a team that responds to RFPs, then you will be busy for most of 2016 with FirstNet because they will have everyone responding to the RFP coming out very soon. Other than that we won’t see any work from that until maybe mid 2017. The site acquisition teams and the site engineering teams may see it before that. In fact, if AT&T does respond to the offer like they said they would, then it will be all the AT&T contractors that will get the work because, in my opinion, AT&T is in the best position to win it. Remember that the FirstNet build is more than deployment. They need billing systems, device distribution, and more. They got nothing and need all the systems to be in place so that they can cover all public safety entities in the USA. Not something that most companies can do but a carrier is already setup to do this.

Verizon Wireless has been building with a steady plan, and I see them ramping up a bit in 2016 just because they will have more spectrum to deploy. “They won some in the previous auction and the equipment should be ready. One thing that all of the carriers will want to do is put as much in one radio head as possible to save on the tower rent. They don’t want to overload the tower but more importantly they want to cram as much as they can into a radio head. They want to see if one antenna can handle this and 600MHz so that they can add weight but no more units to the tower. Don’t worry, if you are working for them you will be replacing what they have and they will need to do structural on the tower for the additional weight. It will be more work on the tower connecting up more fiber, maybe, and more RF cables from the radio head to the antennas. Maybe even replacing the antennas.

AT&T will finally do some more field work. What choice do they have? They need to start growing again so that they can deploy the new spectrum. Deploy, deploy, deploy! They will expand the tower sites. I do believe they will develop a small cell or CRAN plan as well. While they said it was too expensive, Verizon helped drive the costs down because of their cutting edge thinking. AT&T just wanted to take over DirecTV, they didn’t have time to be creative. However, another plus with AT&T is that they plan to deploy the Wireless Local Loop, WLL, for broadband connectivity. This is awesome if they actually do it because t will compete with the cable companies for access to homes, if they can make it work! It is a big demand to offer that much wireless broadband to a home for video. Just because T-Mobile USA offers free video streaming doesn’t mean AT&T will.

T-Mobile is still growing and seeing the rewards of more customers, they well deserve them because they have been adding more sites and more spectrum! Way to go T-Mobile! I appreciate all the work you’re doing and I see you doing more, maybe 20% more in 2016. I hope so anyway because you have the opportunity to compete with the big boys and leave Sprint in the dust. This is great that you are deploying. T-Mobile USA has done some great things in 2015, with the growth of the system and the distribution of small cells to the home, the femto cells, and the marketing that they have in place to really propel their growth by leaps and bounds. I really have to give a lot of credit to Legere for all that he has done to grow and put his foot on Sprint. I would say that AT&T and Verizon see a real competitor in T-Mobile, a real threat.

Sprint may actually start the densification that they talked about for years. We all know Sprint. They will find the most cost-effective, (cheapest), way to do it. They went through a learning process, a bunch of RFPs to vendors, to eliminate any normal way of doing it and then they threw it in the lap of Mobilitie to make it happen. Good luck Sprint, the deployment teams will be happy for the work as long as they make money and don’t do it for free or at a loss. Remember, they want to earn a living, not work for nothing. Now, to be fair, Sprint isn’t actually doing the deployment management, it is actually Mobilitie who is making this happen. From what I hear Mobilitie is already moving ahead and laying out the plan for densification. They are working to deploy the mini macro, which is really a single sector cell site. That single sector will probably be an Omni antenna. It appears as though Sprint will deploy in-band backhaul where possible so they don’t have to run fiber anywhere or mount a panel, so this will maintain a low profile site, in theory. I am curious to see how that goes and if that 2.5GHz spectrum is more valuable as backhaul than fronthaul. If you were an investor and saw that spectrum as backhaul like 5.8GHz, how would you feel about it? Mobilitie is making a move and should have a lot of work for deployment teams this year. It appears their plan is innovative, or cheap depending on your perspective, by deploying on non tower company owned sites and using as much existing equipment taken from inventory and macro sites. Again, this is merely an observation, not sure if they will actually deploy this way.

LTE small cells, CRAN, and DAS. I love the HetNet! I will start with the outdoor deployments. I really think that this year, if the carriers deploy they will rely on deploying small cells and oDAS around town because, as Verizon has shown, this is the best way to utilize the spectrum that you already have. I think that T-Mobile will follow suit because they are smart and they intend to densify the heavily populated areas. I know that we all talk about the Sprint densification plan but all the carriers are doing this, they just call it a Het Net system, (Heterogeneous Network). The Het Net is where you deploy multiple Macro, small cell, and DAS. I would also include Wi-Fi and LTE-U in this network. Throw it all in there and you have a Het Net system. I am really excited about the 3.5GHz spectrum that the FCC will open up to LTE because of the new opportunities. If the FCC opens this up and gives out the spectrum it will be a beautiful thing when we can deploy on the lightly licensed spectrum for fronthaul and backhaul. WOW, it is really going to help smaller businesses deploy small cell as a service, (SCAAS), and I can’t wait!

By the way, Carriers need to Free the Small Cells!

Let’s look inside, indoor coverage. If you look around you will see that most people rely on Wi-Fi for most everything but voice. Am I right? There are still issues with handing off the call to Wi-Fi. I know we expected carrier Wi-Fi to pick up the slack but the only company I saw to make inroads on this was T-Mobile who did a great job with Wi-Fi calling, but it still doesn’t hand off to LTE very well, at least that is what I am told. So how will we improve indoor coverage? I know we will rely on DAS and Wi-Fi, but the carriers don’t want to pay for any more indoor coverage that doesn’t have a payback, I get it. What we need is to put small cells and Wi-Fi and LTE-U in as many buildings as we can. Who will pay? The landlords and the businesses in the buildings. Who will deploy? The deployment teams doing small cell and DAS

That’s all for this week, be smart, be safe, and pay attention.

I hope this helps, for more get the eBook! Find out where to get the eBook here.

By the way, the carriers need to free the small cells! Find out more by clicking here.

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Sprint has a Small Cell Plan!

December 17, 2015 Wade Leave a comment

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Sprint is showing signs of life in the deployment world, can you believe it? They seem to be moving ahead, mostly through Mobilitie! This is great news. I have been learning more and more on this and I thought I would share.

Sprint is pushing for a way to streamline and improve the small cell deployment process. Specifically outlined in a letter that Charles McKee sent to the FCC, letter found here, which discusses the meeting Sprint’s Marcel Claure and Vonya McCann had with the FCC commissioner Mignon Clyburn, (who I am a fan of because she often speaks of tower workers safety). Sprint apparently shared their growth plans with the Commissioner. Mr. Claure expressed how important it would be for Sprint to cost effectively deploy the small cells without the costly delays that jurisdictions often incur by having ridiculously slow and complicated permitting processes.

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With Sprint’s massive job cuts are Mobilitie’s gain for the work. It looks like Sprint will rely on Mobilitie for the deployment. Mobilitie will boom this year when they take on the network expansion for Sprint, but they may not get paid for it until who knows when. Remember that Mobilitie will be doing the deployment work for Sprint with the small cells and mini macro deployments. Just a not, the mini macro may look like a small cell installation, but with way more power out, pay attention to that little fact! Another thing I am seeing is that Sprint & Mobilitie are looking to do as much as they can without getting the tower companies involved.

Sprint, (Mobilitie), has a process in place for deployment, but it’s all the outside factors that get in the way causing delays and raising costs. For example the easements, permitting, zoning, and problems running backhaul. Depending on which jurisdiction you’re deploying in, things could go well or things could move at a snail’s pace. Many jurisdictions slow down the small cell installation and also the fiber runs. I am still a fan of wireless backhaul, but that takes proper planning, one thing most people don’t want to take the time to do up front, just my opinion there.

Now don’t get me wrong, there is a reason some jurisdictions are cautious, most of them don’t do it to be jerks, they are just trying to understand what will be installed and what the repercussions will be. Most local jurisdictions don’t always want better coverage if there will be problems, I see both sides. In the past some carriers installed noisy and ugly sites causing the local residents to be up in arms. You need to have balance with aesthetics. You need to mutually respect each other’s opinions, right? Remember that the protests can lead to the removal of a site. Since there are so many jurisdictions to deal with, streamlining, (like Mr. Claure is asking the FCC to help with), makes sense but we need to show the local residents respect.

WDH = Wireless Deployment Handbook , end to end deployment.

I am a fan of small cell deployment and Sprint is pushing for a way to improve this, I am on board! I believe they would qualify their mini macro as a small cell at this point to speed up the densification, if it happens. Let’s face it, we all want to deploy.

Let’s not overlook the fact that Mobilitie has been preparing to deploy by asking to install on poles and install new poles just like Crown Castle has been doing. I am told that they want to replace the existing poles with taller and stronger poles for the mini macro and small cells, (again like Crown Castle has been doing). They have already sent project notes of out to city offices, like the letter they sent to the California City of Ojai, document found here. The document clearly outlines a high level plan to deploy small cells.

I was conversing with a friend of mine, Omar Masry, AICP, City Planner of San Francisco, about this.

Per Omar, “The City of San Francisco has signed agreements to allow Mobilitie to potentially install their facilities on City owned steel light and transit poles (which hold up electric wires for buses and light rail). However, as of yet no design has been approved. T-Mobile and Verizon are actively collaborating with the City on the installation of Small Cells (technically C-RAN) on existing poles. The equipment primarily involves two Ericsson mRRUs (plus an external antenna for the Verizon nodes). One challenge involves the design of the mRRUs with cabling exiting out the bottom of the enclosure then rotating back before entering the pole. Staff requested 90 degree connectors but the carrier declined. However superflex cabling was used instead to reduce the gap between the bottom of the mRRU and the pole entry point to five inches. Preferably equipment manufactures would create a variant for steel pole installations with reduced cabling visibility through alternate port locations (e.g. rear). Another challenge with the Extenet-Verizon deployment was that the initial design proposal did not include required electronic gear (cabling and combiners). This required additional redesigns to shroud the equipment at the base of the external antenna; and ensure the design was compatible with the historic districts and streetscapes that characterize San Francisco. AT&T Mobility had previously submitted applications to attach wireless facilities to steel transit poles, however the design was not approved as it featured bulky equipment enclosures and antennas on steel poles in primarily historic residential areas. Staff looks forward to working with carriers on ensuring designs are compatible with the City’s streetscapes (without noisy cooling fans , flashing lights, and logos/decals typically associated with more challenging DAS nodes on some wooden poles), while providing robust and competitive broadband services. Photo Examples of these (and other) design challenges can be found at: http://www.slideshare.net/omarmasry/slides-from-a-wireless-cellular-design-panel ”

So it looks like Sprint may be moving ahead through Mobilitie. I am hoping they deploy this year sometime before it’s too late! Mobilitie is the densification deployment team for Sprint, remember that. They will be the team rolling everything out. The mini-macro deployment could be referred to as small cells because, quite frankly, it’s easier to work with, just like the CRAN deployment. Those working with Verizon and T-Mobile know it’s easier to just lump it all into the small cell category. There are plenty of signs that they may do something soon!

Deploy, deploy, deploy! You can never have enough wireless deployments, am I right? Macro, small cell, CRAN, and DAS all are part of this amazing HetNet world we live in! Let’s deploy!

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WDH = Wireless Deployment Handbook , end to end deployment.

Maybe Sprint is moving ahead!

December 10, 2015 Wade Leave a comment

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I got an email, also seen here, from Telecom Careers telling me that Mobilitie is looking for several positions! I have them listed below but could this mean that perhaps the Sprint Densification plan is going to move ahead? I hope so. I mean look at the jobs listed below. I got this right from the email. Send those applications in people!

Network Real Estate Senior Manager – Atlanta, GA
Training Specialist – Costa Mesa, CA
Quality Specialist – Chicago, IL
Safety Director – Newport Beach, CA & Chicago, IL
DAS Design Engineer – Newport Beach, CA
Architecture & Engineering Specialist – Chicago, IL
Director of RF Engineering – Newport Beach, CA
Real Estate Attorney– Newport Beach, CA
Technical Solutions Mgr for Backhaul – Multiple Locations
Manager Forward Logistics Deployment – Chicago, IL
Explore over 40 opportunities at Mobilitie here and here

I smell a deployment about to happen! What do you think? I hope this means more work for the deployment teams everywhere. I don’t know what it will be like to work with Mobilitie but it can’t be any worse that dealing with Sprint, right?

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(You know you want to!)

Look at my Wireless Deployment post, found here, and see that these are all the positions that are generally used in a carrier deployment.

Remember that it all starts with site acquisition and RF design. Then you move into low-level design and site design. It doesn’t take long to get things rolling but there are always delays.

I am hoping that by looking at this hiring schedule that Sprint may finally be ramping up to move ahead with the densification project as well as the 2.5GHz expansion.

Now, I am not saying things are all peaches and cream at Sprint, for instance, the layoffs are already starting even though the bulk will hit in January, article here, where an 11% reduction in the workforce. According to the article there are about 31,000 people work there today. So over 3,300 people will be leaving. Now all of this comes after Marcelo Claure announced that he would be promoting a few people to regional presidents.

One more thing, Sprint will no longer sponsor NASCAR, that is over and done with. So Sprint will survive for another year.

Another question that lingers, should Comcast take over Sprint or T-Mobile? Why not, it makes sense. Even though Comcast has a deal with Verizon Wireless to sell carrier services, then maybe they would jump in with both feet. They have the money and they have motivation. It would help them put AT&T in its place by competing on the TV delivery and in wireless. Comcast said they were going to move into the wireless market and run trials with Verizon.

Now, let’s get back to the Sprint deployment. I still believe nothing will happen until mid-2016 and that will probably just be the densification project. I don’t’ know when the 2.5GHz expansion will take place but maybe not until 2017. Sprint just can’t seem to handle the expenses right now. I hope that the deployment is good for the deployment teams, but anyone that has dealt with Sprint knows that they will try to get as much as they can for as little as they can. So beware of losing money on the venture. Remember that deployment should be win-win, not “win then suck the life out of my deployment teams leaving them broke”. Let’s be fair, to do this work at a loss means that you should not do the work at all! Don’t underbid unless you are prepared to lose money.

Why do I bring up the bidding? Because in a Light Reading article, found here, they mention how Sprint/SoftBank is going to do small cells differently. They already awarded the hardware to Nokia and Airspan, which most of you know about, and Ericsson may get a chuck. They passed over the small cell leader, Alcatel-Lucent, maybe because Nokia is about to swallow them up or they wanted cheaper small cells. The real reason is mainly because the backhaul had to be something easy and cheap. They don’t want to pay for fiber unless absolutely necessary, enter Airspan. A smaller player and yet one that has a complete solution and is probably able to undercut the big boys to gain a small percentage of the market share. Can’t blame them unless they lose money, then it all looks stupid.

Now the other player for indoor, from what Dan Jones of Light Reading says, looks to be a player for indoor. This should make CommScope very happy since the own Airvana.

Remember that this is Sprint, and they may change everything and that they put out so many RFPs in the last year that your head would spin if you had to keep up with all of them. I admire the people working at Sprint for burning through the cycles and I hope those loyal people get to keep their jobs after the massive layoff that Sprint has planned. I know that many of them worked through holidays just to make sure that Sprint would have the pricing. By the way, if you ever have worked through the RFP process with Sprint then you will see that it is not easy and it usually is about price, my observation and opinion.

When will they deploy the small cells? Who knows, I hope the mini macro happens soon, but the reality is that they won’t be ready until mid 2016 from what I am seeing. Maybe they will surprise me by deploying sooner, but I doubt it. If anything they may push it out to 2017.

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Sprint versus T-Mobile

December 7, 2015 Wade Leave a comment

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If anyone is following the battle for #3 you see that T-Mobile got the position. Can they hold it? Who is going to make the long-term difference? Let me tell you what I see from a deployment stance.

Don’t get me wrong, the marketing plays a big part. I think that Marcelo Claure of Sprint and John Legere of T-Mobile are geniuses at marketing, although I think Legere has the edge. They both see to be able to build marketing programs that reach out to the smartphone user. The difference I see is that Sprint’s message is “we are cheap and will give you a cheap plan” versus T-Mobile who says “We have a reasonable plan with free video and our LTE coverage is great”. I think we all see the difference but in the end the customer wants a working system for a reasonable price.

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Business wise T-Mobile seems stronger at this moment in time. T-Mobile wins here if we just look at the stock price, When I wrote this, Sunday December 6, 2015, T-Mobile came in at $35.45 versus Sprint at $3.53. It is obvious that we hear about all the problems at Sprint and all the cool stuff T-Mobile is doing that T-Mobile is moving up while Sprint seems to be standing still. Some would say Sprint is moving backwards, which, in this industry is what happens when you stand still. Let’s move on shall we?

So from a deployment stance I see that Sprint has built, ever so slowly, very little out this year. They are expanding their 2.5GHz footprint at a snail’s pace. The good news is that they have been optimizing what they have to the point that they really are improving the network coverage. From what I hear they are actually making improvements and pushing the LTE that they have built. In my opinion it is too slow.

T-Mobile on the other hand is aggressively building out with an impressive steady build plan that will improve their densification in major population areas. I am really impressed by what they are doing and the move to VoLTE. WOW! This is impressive to me and it shows that T-Mobile is not only committed to changing the industry by becoming the anti-carrier and plans but they are really improving their network. They seem to be boosting the network by leaps and bounds.

WDH = Wireless Deployment Handbook , end to end deployment.

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So when I look at the 2 competitors I see T-Mobile actually making a real difference in the network and growth. Meanwhile Sprint seems to be falling farther and farther behind. I know that we all expect them to do something big in 2016, but will it be enough or will it be too little too late. I will give Sprint and Softbank for the most creative financing. That deal they pulled off to get $1.1B of cash was amazing. WOW! Then they will be cutting out $2.5B of costs by cutting the workforce, meaning huge layoffs. Then they have to deploy the network they promised in their densification plan. Then they will have Mobilitie finance most of it for them. So will Sprint become a shell where the network is owned by Mobilitie and the devices will be owned by Mobile Leasing Solutions. So Sprint is finding a way to deploy a network and sell devices with little financial outlay. Let’s hope they can stay afloat long enough to make it happen.

T-Mobile on the other hand has been making investments that really look great from a system perspective. They have all the marketing savvy but they have the network to back it up. The video offering they have now is really impressive and the fact they have the vision to go complete LTE, for data and voice, is amazing. The way they offered VoWiFi before any other carrier did was awesome. They are pushing all the other carriers into a position they weren’t ready for yet. They seem to have an impressive vision for their future.

The funny thing is that Sprint has all the 2.5GHz spectrum that any other carrier would love to have, but they are moving so slowly because they apparently don’t’ have the money to do anything with it. They have a plan to densify, but they have been putting all of their vendors through the ringer and trying to cut the prices down to the point where most deployment teams wont’ want to work with them. I know that I have talked to many people who have participated in several RFPs that it is hard to take Sprint seriously any more. They have personally made so many vendors back down and say “don’t call us until you’re serious”. Do you remember when the rumor was that they were going to deploy over 70,000 small cells, then it was mini macros, for the densification program. What has been done since then? Not much. They seem to be slowly adding 2.5GHz to the towers, which really is an extension of the Network Vision plan. Sprint has such potential but they can’t seem to get out of their own way. All the money seems to be going somewhere, but where? I mean, I don’t see it going into the network, do you? They are cutting an already overworked workforce. They just don’t seem to be a company that the vendors I have talked to really want to work with anymore. The best thing they could do it allow the vendors to deploy the small cells and DAS systems for them. “Free the Indoor Small Cells”. They could allow them to deploy the system for them. It would just take building a process then they could get out-of-the-way, just wishful thinking on my part.

From what I see, T-Mobile is making all the right moves to win this war. I think that they are positioning themselves to push AT&T and Verizon. They might not win on coverage but they can give them a run for their money. While coverage is an issue, they have a good overall plan and they are sending a consistent message. Meanwhile, Sprint seems to be sending a message that they are the cheap guy and the margins are bleeding for it. But hey, what do I know, I just want to see all the deployment teams busy again.

I am reading “Lessons in Life and Business” by Elon Musk and he has a quote that I think would apply here. “Focus on signal over noise. A lot of companies get confused. They spend money on things that don’t actually make the product better.”

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http://urgentcomm.com/public-safety-broadbandfirstnet/top-carriers-may-have-reservations-about-participating-firstnet-bid-

Who will Bid on FirstNet?

November 23, 2015 Wade Leave a comment

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That’s right, with the RFP coming out in December, probably on 12/31/2015. We are all anticipating the release. For so many reasons. Who will bid on it? Who will risk it? Who will take a chance on building the nationwide LTE system for public safety? Is it real or did the government just waste tens of millions of dollars? I built a hypothetical list just for you. We talk about this all the time, especially at work because of the $6.5B, yes, billion dollars that is up for grabs. I know, they had $7B, but honestly, how much will trickle through the government before the contractors and OEMs see any of it?

Well, I hope it is real because it is a lot of work. What’s that, how did they waste all that money? Well, first, FirstNet spent a ton of money putting together their group and going through several people to get the stability it needed. Remember this; government can’t just go and build with investor money. You have to play nice with all the government agencies that want favors in return. Remember that everyone has a kingdom to protect. One thing they should know is that this would bring a lot of work to every state and every industry.

Let’s not just look at the federal money spent, the states spent a crap ton of hours preparing for this and trying to figure to build a case to opt out. I don’t think any of them will but they spent the cycles trying to build a case to get out of it. Why? That’s their job, to weigh both sides so they can make an educated decision.

As for spending so far, look at the road shows , the testing, the labs, the promotional work, the states hiring consultants (which does not come out of the federal money but your state taxes), the congress and senate burning time on this, the companies that are preparing to respond. All this is money and time spent for something that we all hope will happen.

Sorry, that is off the point, let’s get back to the bidding contenders. Who can take this on? Who is interested? Well, I have built a hypothetical list of groups that I know of. Now understand that some people don’t want to bid on it. I built this list because we have been talking about this all week with the RFP coming up.

OEMs – like Alcatel-Lucent/Nokia and Ericsson. Honestly, it’s too big and I don’t think they can do what FirstNet wants. The draft RFP made it clear that FirstNet wants to partner with a carrier for roaming purposes. It will also be more of a build, operate, maintain, and handoff model which the OEMs don’t want to deal with. Think about it, would you want to finance a network like this just to sell equipment? That’s what Sprint is looking for, how is that working out?

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System Integrators – who? I made a list below

Rivada – they seem to think that they can build a relationship with the carriers to use the FirstNet spectrum. They have a plan to let the carriers bid on the spectrum to generate revenue. Cool idea in concept, I wish them the best.

General Dynamics – They want to and they are big enough to do it. But, can they fit the model? Can they manage this without getting a black eye? Can they work a deal for roaming?

Motorola – Will their deal with Ericsson make them a contender? Did LA-RICS give them a black eye or show they got experience? Motorola used to be a power house in public safety, in fact, they were the team to beat in wireless communications at one time. That’s right, they did everything from car radios to satellite to paging to cell systems to cell phones to Nextel. They were the team to beat in public safety. You could not walk into a site without seeing the batwings exposed on equipment. If you don’t know what I mean, then you are too young to understand. By the way, do you still see the Motorola Logo in sites? Of course, but not like you did 20 years ago, you know I’m right! They also did networking equipment in the days of framed relay and modems, (if you’re asking what that is, use Google to look it up, again, I am in my 50s, get over it). The flaw I see here is that Motorola did not learn from the carriers by partnering with one OEM, how stupid? All the carriers knew better. They know that you need 2 or 3 OEMs to play it safe and keep innovation alive and make it competitive. I say that they made an obvious mistake right up front, in my opinion.

IBM – Why not? They are big enough and I would say they could do as well as Motorola. They would build processes to handle all of this and they could make it happen and they could build the relationships with the carriers as well as anyone on this list.

Black & Veatch – I believe they could do it but would they want to when they could just as easily do regional work for any of the above? They are positioned well for the deployment, but FirstNet wants so much more than to deploy a network, too much for Black and Veatch to want to deal with. I think they know what they are good at, managing deployments, they don’t want to get in over their head with the operate and maintain.

Others – Who else could do this? I am sure there are plenty that when they look at it they think they could, just like the little engine going up the mountain, “I think I can, I think I can” but when they read the RFP, they will see it’s so much more than deploy, it deploy, operate, maintain, provide immediate coverage. That’s a huge plate to fill for any one company especially when FirstNet wants a SPOC, (single point of contact).

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What about carriers? Here is the target audience for what they are looking for. Voila! You have the target integrator for FirstNet because you have an instant carrier. This is what FirstNet wants, at this moment in time. This is what I see as the master plan. The RFP will have all the requirements to build a system on top of a system using that valuable spectrum. Too bad the carriers are having 2 auctions prior to the actual deployment. You see they now have spectrum. Let’s list them out one by one.

Verizon – this is the target but does Verizon want to do this? It doesn’t appear so. They already make a ton of money off government phone contracts and they have a government division. They seem to have a pretty solid and profitable business. Do they want to do this for some spectrum that they may or may not be able to use? Ask them, I believe that they know if the system has an issue or if the relationship sours they will lose more in the long run with public image and future government contracts.
AT&T – Here is a contender that may sign up because they love more spectrum, they need more spectrum, and they appear to be interested. They could do it but could they meet the land mass coverage that is required of FirstNet? I don’t think they could and I don’t think that they want to, but if they sign up they will be required to. Is it worth it?
Sprint – Seriously, Sprint, don’t they have to get going with the densification project after cutting over $2B from their budget? They don’t want to deal with anything like this right now.
T-Mobile – They won’t want to cover all that FirstNet has and chances are good they don’t want to deal with it. It is a large offer. Too large for them to really take seriously at this time. They certainly don’t want to cover all the landmass that will be required.
CCA members – They probably can’t cover the land mass without T-Mobile and/or Sprint, too bad. I think that this group would be awesome at this,. Seriously, if they could step up and take this on. I know that CCA probably couldn’t manage this on their own, they would need help, but I have a list above of plenty of system integrators that would be happy to help.
T-Mobile with all the members of CCA – Awesome! I would love to see this happen because CCA could cover most of what T-Mobile can’t, and these teams could do it! I also believe that the spectrum would be very valuable to the CCA members. Seriously, they could use it since they don’t get many breaks on bidding with the FCC. Deep pockets generally win. T-Mobile, again, won’t want to deal with this but if CCA could build a team then T-Mobile could step back and concentrate on the network whilst CCA manages the build and integration while T-Mobile could operate and maintain. All that for some extra spectrum and $6B. Suddenly this team would make a play for #2 with coverage if they looked like one system. Hey, just my thoughts here.
AT&T with CCA Members – Here is an ideal situation, again, in my opinion. AT&T already has interest and they have the network and the experience. CCA could fill the holes. They could cover the landmass that AT&T can’t or doesn’t want to. What a concept. Could AT&T and CCA work together, who knows! I would like to see it but it probably won’t happen. I think this is what should happen since it could really change the landscape of the industry. One more thing, it would really put Verizon in a tough spot because these 2 together would over shadow Verizon’s network. T-Mobile, being a member of CCA, probably would not let this happen. Sprint is also a member of CCA, but they have their own problems to deal with, they might protest but I don’t think that they would get in the way.

Did I miss anyone? Let me know below the links. I just think we need to see that FirstNet really limited their options by asking for a single company to deploy. That’s what happens with you only want to deal with the SPOC. They will soon realize how hard that can be, to only get information from one person. If you’re like me and every other analyst I know, you will soon realize to listen to many sources before making a decision. Even then you can be wrong, but you have done your due diligence.

There is one option I didn’t mention. The states could build it. If this went back to the states, what would happen? I think we can tell the active states would kick ass. I mean the big boys like Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and many more. They want to move ahead and move now. I believe they don’t want to wait. They seem to have an exact idea of how to deploy. Unfortunately they don’t see any good way to opt out, it could lead to disaster. They also are hoping to use their backhaul assets for the system, but if the carriers are used, that probably won’t happen.

By the way, I am looking forward to getting a ton of small cell and DAS work from this in about 3 years, seriously, there is a lot of work coming if this happens. Oh, there I said it again, the big “IF” word again. I really hope it happens soon.

I like you all to know that I just don’t make this up. I actually read a lot of articles. I have a list of my sources for you. That is why there are so many links in these posts.

Sources:

http://urgentcomm.com/blog/where-will-firstnet-be-next-911

http://www.fiercewireless.com/tech/story/analysts-verizons-prospects-winning-firstnet-project-increasing/2015-04-16

http://www.rcrwireless.com/20151022/network-infrastructure/when-will-firstnet-we-see-a-large-scale-firstnet-deployment-tag20

http://www.mccmag.com/Features/FeaturesDetails/FID/588

http://urgentcomm.com/blog/dynamic-spectrum-arbitrage-key-sustainable-firstnet

http://urgentcomm.com/funding/rivada-networks-peter-tenerelli-explains-proposal-let-firstnet-generate-revenue-excess-capac

https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/community/blogs/DonD/entry/public_safety_network_firstnet_part_ii?lang=en

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Free the LTE Indoor Small Cells!

November 19, 2015 Wade Leave a comment

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Attention carriers, free the indoor LTE indoor small cells so that they can be deployed with iDAS! This is specifically for the enterprise and building coverage, since you already freed the small femto cells. You are the ones holding the industry back, not the other way around. You say you don’t want to pay for iDAS, but how can anyone else when you control the small cell? Small Cells can be deployed for home office, let’s free them up for the enterprise! Why? Let me tell you why.

The carriers say they don’t want to pay for indoor DAS but indoor small cells are part of that system, aren’t they? The carriers control the release of larger small cells, well any eNodeB for that matter. The VARs, (Value Added Resellers) want to sell and install these systems for large enterprise but they need to work through the carriers, maybe even to purchase the equipment from the carriers. If carriers want to save on these costs, then set up a system to approve the small cells and low power BTS for DAS systems so you can hand it off to someone who can sell it to the building or business owner. Again, I mean that the indoor small cells are so controlled by the carriers that they can’t be deployed by anyone else. It’s like a small cell hell!

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Who agrees with this? I listened to the RCR interview that Sean Kinney did with Jonathon Adelstein, the CEO of PCIA, and he appears to feel the same way. He thinks that the carriers should not be held responsible for a utility like broadband. He was actually talking about DAS, specifically iDAS, but he has to know that small cells are part of the new DAS systems, right? This guy of all people should understand this. Digital DAS, LTE DAS, get it? Small cells play a part. So it appears that PCIA is all in, but the carriers want the installs to be paid for by others and yet they won’t let go of the control! Well, which is it? It’s going to be hard for you to hand off the DAS without the indoor small cell. Get your head out of your butt and wake up! Make the change today! This is LTE; analog BDAs are not going to cut it anymore!

Let’s build a better model like the femto cell, for instance, homes and small offices are able to have anyone install the femto cell. Let me explain this model. You may have heard that T-Mobile is handing the CellSpot femto cell out to customers for free. This will help build a coverage model similar to what Comcast did with Xfinity Wi-Fi, hand out hotspots, (Cable modem or femto cell), and put your default ESSID on a Wi-Fi hotspot and then all of you customers can use it. It is a complete plug and play device, one that most carriers offer home users at some point, even with Wi-Fi. Wi-Fi calling may change this, but T-Mobile made it sexy and smart. They get expanded coverage for the price of a box and shipping.