I was in another session which was great if you work in public safety. It was session N259 – Pick Me, Pick Me! Choosing the Right Technology for Your System which was moderated by Steve Macke, a great moderator. He knew about all of these technologies, mostly because he consulted for people who needed help with almost all of them. Just a really smart guy in all things wireless.
I have to say, I was surrounded by greatness in this session. All of the speakers knew more about the evolution of communications that almost anyone I talked to. These guys certainly have seen it all. They knew about the progression of DMX, TETRA, P25, and all things 2 way all the way up to hardened communication systems to LTE. When you talk about LTE you understand that is has a long way to go make it reliable enough for public safety. I understand that but let’s face it, that is the end goal. It may be 5 to 10 years from now, but it is the future as I see it. While 5G is new and exciting, it will be built on and around LTE.
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So with all of that said, we need the PTT, (push to talk) systems as they are now. They are needed in public safety. They are normally in hardened sites. We really need to get LTE to that point. One thing that came up is that LTE is nowhere near the hardened requirements that public safety will need. In fact, the way FirstNet is building it out, it doesn’t look like it will be there for years to come, my opinion of course, but if they have a carrier build it, they will get a carrier class system, which is awesome. But, will it work after a hurricane or a tornado or a bombing? Ask yourself that. Now, let’s move on.
Doug Chapmanof Etherstack, representing PTIG in this session, talked about how P25 systems fit the current mission critical voice communications. Here is a smart guy that really understood what mission critical means and what they need to keep working.
Bill Frederickson of LMR Systems, Selex, representing DMRa, spoke of DMR systems being used as a cost-effective solution for voice communications.
Rodney Grim, National Technical Sales Manager of ICOM America, spoke about the use of NXDN and the service for real-time voice in critical communication. It is a very cost-effective voice solution for mission critical systems that has been around for year and is very reliable. It is commonly used in the USA.
John Monto, Director of Radio Technology Systems for Rockwell Collins/ARINC, spoke about TETRA systems being used not only worldwide, but here in the states today.
Dan O’Malley is a Sr Product Manager of Cisco, for the Internet of Things, gave a really interesting talk of a Cisco system that could work in mission critical systems that rely on the IP Network and the PTT system. He had examples of how the system could switch over from one call center to another in a mission critical situation.
Scott Peabody is a senior consultant for ADCOMM Engineering Company, gave a very technical and interesting talk of how 5G will be the critical infrastructure for the future. He demonstrated how the use of Wi-Fi in today’s world can solve some connectivity issues seen in our industry. He had an example of how he could connect a hip using Wi-Fi to provide them with over 100Mbps of data. Pretty cool stuff!
I spoke about using LTE in mission critical systems, well, really I laid out the pros and cons, because LTE isn’t there yet.
What do the deployment teams think of FirstNet? What do you think of FirstNet? Yes, FirstNet. For all of us who were looking forward to building FirstNet, guess what, it is only going to help you if you already work for a carrier, a large carrier, probably AT&T. Yes, the carriers are rule the industry.
The way it looks is AT&T are the front-runners, not because of anything specific, just because they are interested in the offer and they are apparently the perfect fit. Maybe Rivada can get in there, but it will be an uphill battle for them. The only competition I could see is if T-Mobile or Verizon show interest, which they didn’t yet. If they do come out as bidders, great, but the way it looks at this moment in time is that AT&T has a lock on it.
If you are a contractor for AT&T, things look pretty good for you. I believe that the engineers and installers have a great opportunity to get in on the AT&T growth spurt, in 2017. I don’t see much happening before 2017 because this process of approvals, contracts, and agreements will go slow. When they do ramp up, go baby go! Then in 2018 or 2019 we should see the densification of the FirstNet network for better coverage. It’s a long wait, but worth it.
So this will not be a normal public safety offer, really it won’t look like public safety at all. In fact, I am curious how Motorola will survive moving forward, but that is another story. For this story we need to look at this as just another carrier expansion. This is one that the carriers will continue with business as usual, that is, until something doesn’t work or goes wrong then the finger-pointing will begin. I hope they forego the finger-pointing and decide to just push ahead. It will be a new system built on an existing system that will have glitches. Then the advancements will begin, like push to talk, PTT, and over the top, OTT, services for all of you to start adding to the system.
FirstNet will add a lot of work but the way I see it, it will be as an expansion to the AT&T system. The one thing that AT&T will need to do is build the markets they may not have, like rural Alaska and Hawaii where there may be little or no coverage. They may also need to improve coverage where FirstNet needs to cover real estate. How will they do this? Partners, they will trade spectrum, specifically the Band 14 of FirstNet, to a smaller local carrier just like they do now. Then they will setup roaming between systems.
Roaming is relatively simple for carriers now. They just bill in whatever terms the contract states, by minute or by call, whatever. They do it all the time between all the carriers. This is how a basic MVNO agreement works. A company, like Virgin Mobile here in the US, has a billing system tied into a large carrier and then create an agreement billing by the minute, a bulk of minutes, or be billed by subscriber. These are ways that the MVNO can work and probably what Rivada will have to do to be competitive.
I was hoping that FirstNet would spark the industry, but I was wrong. It will merely help the dominance of the carriers over all the wireless systems in the USA.
I bring this up because public safety was the last stand for small business, the last stand for a regional business to do work outside of the carrier world. Broadcast appears to be changing and winding down. Broadcast was a place where smaller businesses were still prevalent. Well, those days are coming to a close, aren’t they? The 600MHz auction is shutting that door. Now, if you don’t do carrier work or tower modifications, then you had better be getting into pole placement for small cell expansion.
What a let-down, the FirstNet team took a long time to hand it over to a carrier. I guess it should not surprise me because they do LTE so well, but I thought it would be an opportunity for a new player to come in. With all of their money and backing, I have to root for Rivada just to see what they will do different. I know that the $6B budget that they have looks inviting, but the only realistic way they can get there is to partner with a carrier. It makes perfect sense for the FirstNet team.
So what can you do? Sit back and wait for the deployment, next year, hopefully early in 2017 we will see real work rolling out. I am looking forward to it!
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The FirstNet RFP was released! Can you believe it? I started working on this back in 2011 making material for the pending RFP, and here it is in 2016. I was so excited until I looked at all of the documentation, wow! There is so much. However, I am not going to break it all down, I just want to give a high level view of what it will mean to the deployment teams. Deployment will not happen until 2017, installations mid to late 2017, but when it does, there will be plenty of work.
So, what does this mean to the wireless deployment community? Well, almost nothing until 2017. Let’s face it, to go through this it will take some time. FirstNet expects their responses to come in April where they will need to review it and see who can do it. Unless you work on the RFP response, 2016 won’t mean much to you. The way the RFP is written, it may not matter anyway.
Who can do it? It will take a carrier. It will not happen too quickly even though they want it too. I see AT&T having the best shot at doing this. I think Verizon would be a great competitor but I get the feeling they’re not interested mainly because they always answer with “No comment” when asked. Either they are still deciding or they don’t’ want to.
One thing that will hold back integrators is the penalty they will get if public safety does not subscribe, Donny Jackson wrote an article here. Isn’t government great when they want a sustainable system? They can just say that you have to pay them or don’t bid. That will hold back integrators because FirstNet is really looking for carriers, not integrators. In fact, it could even hold back the carriers. They already have working models without the potential penalties. FirstNet is doing all that they can to hold back the number of bidders. I am reading through the RFP, but I didn’t see this section just yet but I do see the minimum payments part. Maybe I missed it but I was more concerned with the actual equipment and services. If this is the case, why would anyone take this on? Even AT&T has to think it might not be worth it unless they see value in the spectrum. Is AT&T is willing to pay this as a fee to get more spectrum, after all, FirstNet can’t sell it. Will AT&T set up a public safety sales division to sell to public safety groups nationwide? It may become more of a headache than an asset but they may do it for the additional spectrum.
T-Mobile might do this for spectrum as well, but will they tackle something like this? Probably not. They may not want to deal with the extra work or the potential for bad press or the penalties. It probably isn’t on their roadmap unless they really, really want the spectrum.
I don’t see Sprint doing it. They are a mess and need to worry about their own system before they deploy another system.
It looks like FirstNet really pigeon holed this RFP towards carriers, nationwide carriers who already have a system built and running. All the anticipation in the industry and now it looks like no integrator would want to touch it with these crazy penalties. However, I guess you can sell your own devices on this spectrum and that may be a source of revenue. If you can’t get the public safety groups to go on it then it may be an additional way to load the network. They will like it until there is an emergency and the spectrum is pulled away from the consumer for emergency responders, but if no public safety group is on it then why bother?
Selling public safety is more than just providing a great deal, it also has to do with politics. Some groups may sign up to support the network and others may not just because they don’t believe in it. It’s not like the carrier market where you do have loyalty, but mostly people sign up for coverage and price, maybe to get a cool phone but you can put almost any phone on any network in today’s world.
Now, the deployment scenarios.
Timeline – with the RFP being released in January of 2016 and being due in April, there may be an extension so let’s say May. Then FirstNet need to evaluate the responses, which it may only be AT&T. If there are a lot of responses then it may take the rest of the year. Once they pick a winner then the negotiations and final contract talks need to be completed. Then the deployment will happen. I say 2017 with RF design and site acquisition then site design, structural engineering, and then installation, commissioning, integration and finally optimization. If it’s an AT&T then it will be treated as an expansion or system growth, not really a new deployment. Installation probably happening mid to late 2017, all the way through 2019.
A new carrier with a system integrator – this would be where a new carrier would partner with a Harris or Motorola. If they got it then there would be many RFPs coming out to expand. First they would need to work with an OEM to deploy. The RFP is so much more than that, but let’s just concentrate on deployment. They would need to secure tower space, create a massive RF design, then site design, then deploy. I don’t know what the deployment strategy would be but it would be a lot of work and the equipment may not be ready until mid to late 2017 to be mounted. Antennas, cables, and eNodeBs would all need to be ordered which they may have something or they may not. It would be close to what Verizon has to maybe it would not take so long to develop. Maybe 6 months. Then the installation could begin. Logistics would be a major factor. Get ready for RFPs out the wazoo if that happens.
It’s too bad that LightSquared is in dire straits because this would be a good play for them or a start-up if they can sell their own products on this system and FirstNet would pay them to do it.
Carrier – If a carrier wins, like T-Mobile, Verizon, or AT&T, then I would imagine they would treat it like an expansion and try to deploy it along with whatever else they have to deploy. The only problem they have would be reporting progress back to FirstNet on a regular basis. The deployment teams would again probably not start until mid to late 2017 because of the design and the equipment details. You see, AT&T has to worry about the existing leases so they need to decide if they can get a new radio head and antenna or if they have to add new sectors altogether. I would think they could expand but the leases have to go through before they can do much of anything. The sad part of this is that AT&T will go back to the turf model, so they will need to be sure that all the climbers are certified and safe. It will be a challenge because this is a federal project so they will be deploying under a microscope.
For the deployment teams, more work! RF Design will be needed. For tower leasing companies, it should mean a lot more revenue! For site design and structural engineers, so much more work! You all have the upfront work to do so the installation and integration teams can get to work. Then the optimization will happen. This should be over 3 years of macro deployments nationwide. It all depends on who you’re already aligned with.
If you’re thinking about small cells and DAS, I would think any of that would happen until late 2018, unless AT&T wins, then it may happen sooner. FirstNet will need better coverage, so the indoor coverage will matter at some point. To achieve this they will need small cells all around, inside and out. I see this as a huge boost for the small cell deployments. Unfortunately it won’t happen until 2018 at the earliest, 2019 is more likely.
So get out there and deploy America! Deploy for your country to finally have a nationwide broadband network so that they can watch everyone on live video feeds at will! Oh, don’t get me wrong, I see big brother watching, but who has time to watch everyone, seriously, who? This network will help public safety teams do so much more. The police will have live video available to track bad guys. Fire and Ambulance can use it to send medical data back and forth so they can treat someone live in the field and on the way to the hospital to save lives. The game commission can use it so that I can watch the eagles in their nest, like this one in Pa. I can’t wait. Just as long as the government doesn’t mandate cat videos on YouTube, then I am good.
Just think if we could see the first responders in real-time with their body camera video, how cool would that be? At least the 911 dispatch could get a glimpse of what’s happening real-time so they could call for back up or medical if needed. Really, that’s a game changer.
By the way, all of this has been done so far with the FCC spectrum auction money, not tax dollars. I hope they can sustain it without tax dollars, but only time will tell. They put penalties in there because they thought the spectrum was so valuable that people would live with it, will they? Time for a reality check! The response to the RFP will tell the tale.
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