Most people outside the business, or even on one side or the other, don’t realize how much effort goes into the finalizing of the contract and the handoff from sales to delivery at the time of the project start. These things take time and care to get right.
I wanted to outline the model here. Some companies have delivery teams do the bid but when you grow, this is practical anymore. Somehow you need to make sure all teams are aligned and held accountable.
Wade’s notes on private network sales to delivery handoff.
Rubber hitting the road, alignment.
Finish the final design with delivery and customer.
Update the final business case, pricing, and changes.
Align the updated schedule.
Align the customer with the delivery teams.
Everyone, same page, please!
Some notes that may help you along in building a #PLTE and #P5G business.
Rubber hitting the road, alignment.
OK, so you’ve won a deal, how exciting. Yet, you should be nervous as well. This is where a lot of problems happen.
Let’s review some risks and questions:
The offer was sold, but is it as is or will there have to be modifications and changes? Do you and the customer actually agree on everything? Details matter.
Is your delivery team on board with what you actually sold? Do they know the details?
Did you align delivery, customer, and the gaps in between?
What did you miss?
What did you assume?
What did delivery assume?
What is the customer assuming?
What are the risks?
Remember, you only know what you know, it’s what you don’t know that will surprise you.
This is where you actually have to finalize the offer. If you think it’s already done, then be ready for problems. This is a network that requires details to be handled up front, at least as many as you can.
Once you get better drawings and do site walks, you have a better understanding of how things will fit together.
Permitting may be an issue depending on where you’re working.
In some cities or buildings you may still need union labor or to pay prevailing wage. That’s still a requirement in many larger cities.
What about the supply chain? Did you take into account what can be delivered and when?
You also need to think about staging.
All these little things add up. They could add cost to your project. The one thing you and the customer can agree on is that the project has to be successful. To do that, you need to align with your teams and the customer’s teams. They should already know the expectations, but in case they think it will all work out without any hiccups, you need to set them straight. There is always something.
Your job as the integrator is to make it as easy for the customer as possible and still deliver a great network, or at least what they paid for.
When you align, go through the schedule and acceptance one more time. It helps to be sure you’re all on the same page.
When they accept the network, have clear criteria so you can hand it over to them without any gray areas.
Finish the final design with delivery and customer.
I would bet the first quote you gave the customer had a lot of variables in it. They probably gave you high-level information. The sales team should have said (repeatedly) that the site walk and closer inspection will help you set the final price.
Then when you sit down and walk through the details, perhaps do some site walks, you begin to get the actual costs so you can finalize the quote.
Now, this won’t be set in stone,
The reality is that when you start the project you will uncover some unknowns. This means that there may be change orders throughout the project. These are the things you want customers to be aware of.
The deployment team will know what to expect as they gain experience. They could forecast many problems.
You also want to be sure that everything you quoted on the BOM is available and can do what you promised. Roadmaps with features could be missing something or they could change over time. These are risks that should have been identified earlier and labeled as such.
I would say the design should be as close to the final model as possible. This is where everyone will sign off on the design, plan, and schedule. I think this will help you when things get tough or problems arise.
Update the final business case, pricing, and changes.
Now, the final design and schedule should be set. You need to align the pricing, which also should be set, with the costs in the business case. Here is where you have a solid understanding of the actual costs you expect to spend.
You should also have your risks covered either in a risk budget or using change orders to true everything up.
Larger companies have risk budgets and risk logs done ahead of time to identify the risks they are aware of or that could happen. You can’t protect yourself from everything, but you can protect yourself from known risks, and that will help you down the road.
Align the updated schedule.
Now that you know the final design, you should have the final BOM, and you should know the customer’s schedule and testing requirements.
Let’s align the schedule. While this sounds easy, like, “Hey, when can we start?” We all know that you have to check the availability of the materials. A few years ago, when COVID was in full swing, no one knew when we could get anything. While it’s much better today, we still have potential risks and delays.
We also have manufacturers discontinuing products or making changes.
If you deal with radios and routers, you also know that the roadmaps are wrong, causing you to find replacements to achieve the customer’s desired results. This isn’t always a bad thing unless you’re locked into one vendor or OEM, then you may have problems if they can’t deliver on anything.
There is an expectation that everything will do what it’s supposed to, but things don’t always work out. I would recommend being as transparent as possible with the customer. I think they would appreciate the honesty over a bad surprise. We all hate surprises when they are bad
Align the customer with the delivery teams.
Please note, “delivery teams” is plural, because in this scenario you may have a wireless team, an IT team, a construction team, a commissioning team, and an electrical team. Larger offers will need to have a project management team to pull all of this together. It’s usually best if they are involved in the sales process.
Real-world experience helps because if you’ve done it before you know what to expect and where to start. It’s easy for the delivery team to get overwhelmed, especially if the delivery time frame is short.
This is where the customer also aligns with everyone. You may think that internally you need to align, but without the customer’s project management team being on the same page, it won’t matter. Remember that sales may have worked with all of these teams but probably closed with the managers then it is handed off to the IT or other team again.
Everyone, same page, please!
Have you ever been in this situation? You show up with your teams and equipment and the people at the site are surprised to see you. I have.
Now I make it a point to call myself and ask who will be there to meet us. Then I ask for that person specifically. I try not to assume anything.
I have had customers forget we showing up that day, even after a call and an email, somehow it’s not enough.
What I started doing back then was sending out an invite on a calendar and also testing their mobile device. I want their attention, at least for the kickoff. I need focus and I don’t want to be someone they let in, point, and then leave unless I am given full access and permission to do anything I need to.
Sometimes that is the best route, they tell you to go do what you have to do.
I remember tower work was challenging because sometimes two crews show up at the same tower at the same time. In that situation, you have to be flexible because the other team may have priority over you. No point in being a jerk, just let the customer work it out. Do what they ask, and if possible, have a backup plan for your team.
So, get on the same page with everyone that matters!
Wade’s notes on private network business development.
Building Use Cases.
Differentiate!
Models, financial and technical.
Roadmaps.
Be realistic!
Some notes that may help you along in building a #PLTE and #P5G business.
Building Private Wireless Use Cases
Your customer needs to see what is possible. That’s why you need to provide use cases. The customer will need to see what it can do. Maybe a network outline that solves a problem they have. You need examples of what is possible as well as trials of what is going on.
There are several manufacturing trials happening today as well as mining companies using private networks today. For them, it’s about automation and robotics.
Don’t forget the financial companies, they rely heavily on private networks. For them, it’s about security.
We started out with generic use cases for verticals that made sense. We had to start somewhere to get the word out. We also need collateral to share with our companies to help them explain the potential uses of private networks. It’s not easy, but you have to start somewhere.
Then as you work with customers, you can tailor it to what they need and start to carve out a roadmap going forward. This will be part of their network transformation in many cases.
You can look at their business today and take the feedback they give for what they want to accomplish. This is what you should be doing, helping them understand how they can improve where they are now. To automate, secure, reduce costs, improve throughput, or whatever else you’re doing to build the business case.
Not all customers understand today, so you will need to build the story and guide them.
Challenge them on the status quo and understand where they are now.
It also helps to simplify it the best you can. Make sure they understand their own network, surprisingly few CTOs understand the nuts and bolts of their network. They rely on their IT group to explain to them.
I will tell you that most IT groups hate change unless it lightens their workload. That’s why so many love the Cloud, it offloaded much of the work away from them.
With that said, they may also see their jobs being threatened, so when you talk to them, tread lightly. They panic easily!!
This network transformation has to make sense.
Differentiate!
Make sure you differentiate PLTE and P5G from Wi-Fi. They are different and have different use cases. If anything, you want to educate the customer and maybe even talk them out of PLTE/P5G.
Why?
Because if Wi-Fi is good enough, it’s cheap and easy to build and design as well as maintain. Why mess with it if it ain’t broken?
If they have issues with Wi-Fi, focus on that.
If they have new use cases, focus on that.
What you do, don’t sell them something they don’t need. Remember, you’re providing solutions for them, not a sale for yourself. This customer will become your partner, they’re not a way for you to move products or services unless they have a real need.
A satisfied customer is a happy customer.
Models, financial and technical.
The main thing here is to put together a model for them to understand the technical solution and the financials. This is key to moving forward. I am not saying it has to be 100% or a “final final”. I am saying this is required for them to understand how the network will transform and to get the CapEx and OpEx budgets aligned.
That’s right, CapEx and OpEx, because this network will be a commitment. So you have to make sure you and the customer are aligned with the solution moving ahead. Once you have the solution and scope, you can build the financials.
They will want to see a business case. While you can run numbers on what they have, you can make assumptions and show efficiencies. It doesn’t have to be perfect, but it helps when you tell the story. They will want to tie the use case to the business case and then see a roadmap on how you will get there.
Roadmaps
The roadmap may be the first thing you show in the use case but at a very high and rudimentary level. Then, after you have the use case and business case built, maybe you can outline the road map showing the steps to get from where they are now to where they need to be.
This has to include the high level and if the customer commits, you can lay out the financials and resources required.
Internally you will build models for your team. Build off of that.
The customer would like an idea of how it will progress realistically. Let them know what you expect and ask what deadlines they have.
Don’t stress it if things go wrong. Today’s world has many unknowns, like the supply chain or manpower issues. You will have to explain these risks. Most customers understand these issues.
Risks are important to identify as early as possible. You don’t need to sugarcoat it but then again, don’t blow it out of proportion either. Just identify the risks and move on. If you want to explain your contingency plans, that’s fine, but delays happen and we can’t always predict them.
Be Realistic!
You don’t need to make it any better or worse. Just tell them what it will be expected to do and what it will take to grow the network.
Be open about the OpEx costs because this will eat away at future budgets. These systems may or may not pay for themselves. You’re there to provide guidance and consult in the beginning.
Don’t over-promise but try to over-deliver. We all love that and when you can actually do it, everyone is all the happier.
Say what it it, and explain what it can, then point out the changes that are coming. If they start at PLTE and want to go to P5G, give them the plan and roadmap. Also tell them the benefits, if there are any.
When you sit with the customer, what should you ask?
Common Miscues
I can do it myself!
Do Partners Matter?
PLTE and 5G Selling Checklist
Selling Private Wireless Transformation
We’re talking about Private Wireless networks here. Telecom grade. Not free Wi-Fi. Usually, PLTE and P5G is the private network. This is actually a network transformation. Never think of it as adding wireless, Wi-Fi has broken the cables. This is a high-end use case specific solution.
I see the same story over and over again in selling private networks to non-telecom companies. They really don’t know what they want. They think they do, but not really. They get a lot of options and little clarity.
So I think the customer should see what it can be used for and the roadmap.
However, the customer, in most cases, thinks Wi-Fi is enough. They may be right. Wi-Fi is reliable and works very well. A PLTE or P5G network may be a waste of money. Let’s face it, it has to pay for itself or solve a problem.
So when facing the customer, make sure you understand what they need and if they’re interested in network transformation. But that isn’t enough to get them interested or even motivated. You can show them the use cases, but they may not care or want to spend the money on another wireless network. Again, most Wi-Fi networks are OK, but they are also one more thing they have to maintain.
I think it would be a good idea to talk with the customer and challenge them a bit more.
I see a lot of larger companies that want to offer PLTE and P5G and a side network and not as part of the network transformation. This may not be the best way to move forward.
Some customers come to companies seeking solutions and ask if P5G is the best way to go. Let’s not be hasty but review what the possibilities are. It may not be the best solution.
I have talked with people working with companies in logging, medical manufacturing, logistics, enterprise, education, investment, and more. They all like the idea of private wireless but can’t envision the right fit.
So when it comes to this, education seems ready to pull the plug since they generally have the grants and budget to extend their school network. I have seen several of these cases move forward.
Of course, you have seen many manufacturing use cases from the largest OEMs, but to be honest, they all seem to be trials right now. This has to be part of the larger picture for them when they upgrade their plants. It’s only part of the solution but a huge part.
When you sit with the customer, what should you ask?
Honestly, just ask them what problem they’re trying to solve. Don’t bring up the wireless or wired anything. Just listen to what they are dealing with.
Don’t stop there. Once they give you the 10-minute pitch, challenge them to tell you what is stopping them.
Ask them to explain the use case.
Where do you plan to be in a year? 5 years?
What is the barrier to entry?
Do they have a roadmap?
Do they have a budget?
Do they have a timeline?
These will help break the ice and will help you picture what they need, the end result. Most of you who are technical are probably wondering why it’s not asking them about bandwidth, devices, or latency. I’ll tell you why – because we’re not there yet. They don’t need to worry about any of that just yet.
Also, don’t worry about the solution details. From a high level, think about what makes sense.
Like I said, challenge them, Unfortunately, the bigger the customer, the longer the sales cycle it. They have to get more answers from other people. They have to work with teams and committees. Normally there is no one person to work with.
I always found this funny because most companies like working with a person, but they have teams. It’s usually the same on both sides because we all want our experts to explain
One more thing to consider, do they want a customized solution? Many customers don’t until they look at what they want to accomplish. Of course, they want an out-of-the-box solution, but that may not check all the boxes.
If they want a standard solution, ask them what they’re willing to sacrifice.
Common Miscues
I see so many people present all the options and then just let the customer think about it. It’s as if they know what they need and what it can do. You need to train them, teach them, and give them a vision of the problems solved and the roadmap to solve more problems.
You need to understand the customer and spend time with them to know their business.
It helps if you have use cases, but when selling something new, chances are good that you only have demos to share. Use the demos to demonstrate what it has done and how you tested it. Also, point out what it couldn’t do or the mistakes you made. The customer needs to see what you did right, but also what you did wrong.
It helps if you say, “if we would have done this, then we could have done that.”
Be open and listen when they speak. This is a consultative process that requires a lot of listening and learning before you can solve the problem.
I can do it myself!
I can’t believe this, but after sitting with some teams, they want to do it themselves. They will sit with you and bleed information out of you and your team. Then they think they are experts and can do it themselves. Seriously. You will see this when dealing with small teams or very large teams.
The nice thing about large teams is they usually have a bigger budget and someone who can talk sense into the leadership. When they see they could fail, it motivates them to pass the buck so they have someone else’s throat to choke. While they still want to save money, they try to find a cost-effective partner. This isn’t always the cheapest but may go with the low bidder and hope for the best. FYI – hope is not a strategy, planning and education are.
There are so many issues with teams doing this themselves. You will see this when dealing with small teams or very large teams. They think they can manage and do it all themselves. The dream of a network in a box and the simplicity of Wi-Fi has them overconfident.
One thing I have been seeing is companies trying to pick partners. I have seen some companies that tried to build their own PLTE network thinking they were saving money by doing it themselves. Let me tell you how it turned out.
They decided to buy a small core and then a few PLTE radios that were way cheaper than the suppliers to the carriers. That is fine but when they tried to set up the network it didn’t work. The IT team they had did not have the expertise and didn’t know what they were doing.
The network was built with a lot of problems and headaches. In short, it didn’t go well and when they tried to turn it up it had tons of problems. This was on CBRS spectrum here in the States.
When they went back to their “partners” which was basically the radio supplier, they didn’t get any help. The radio supplier they picked moved on. Unfortunately, they didn’t get the support they needed and ran out of money.
This IT Director, (CTO), didn’t do their research. They thought it was just another IT network. They thought their existing IT staff had the expertise. They were wrong.
If someone comes to you and asks if they can do it themselves, don’t sugarcoat it. Make sure they understand the complexity of the network. Ask them if they do Cloud computing themselves. They will probably say yes, but when you ask them who they use, AWS or Microsoft or Google Cloud, then they may realize they outsource that too. You would be surprised how many companies don’t know they outsource cloud and edge services. They think that because they had to do configurations and log in to set up the system themselves that they’re actually doing it when in fact they are only managing the third party’s system.
It really helps to point this out and let them know that you will be a partner going forward. Partners matter, all you have to do is look at all the failed projects out there. They generally went bad because one of the many partners bailed or didn’t want to support the project since the money ran out. Don’t get me wrong, we all want to make money, but when you look at the bigger picture, success breeds success. I look at those projects and realize how fickle some suppliers were. Shame on them.
Do Partners Matter?
Like I was saying above, partners are key to a project. Someone with experience is nice, but you want someone who understands what you do today and what you plan to do tomorrow. This is a key partner.
That partner may be learning as well, but they can help you manage all the other partners and vendors. I think it makes sense to have one throat to choke. Have your key contact that knows your network. Let them figure out the rest.
Remember, depending on your model, you may have a cloud provider providing the core, a radio supplier providing the radios, an integrator providing the architecture and installation services, and special device makers supplying the end devices. This is a lot for one person to manage.
Then you have the network, security, and backhaul to consider. Make sure you have architects that understand all of it.
I am a fan of integrators because they are generally responsible for designing and delivering the network. They can provide the solution and help you look beyond one piece.
If the customer is working with a carrier, this is OK and could be a good thing. The only thing that drives me nuts is that many carriers still spend a lot of extra money installing a DAS system where small cells would work just as well. Just what I have seen. If the carrier is the lead, they will do what they want, not necessarily what is best for the customer. I’m just saying, be prepared to present your side and defend it.
If you’re a partner, take the time to understand what the customer wants.
PLTE and P5G Selling Checklist
What is the customer really looking for? Let’s use this list for a quick overview.
Customization is required.
Always custom solutions requiring thought, planning, and design.
Wi-Fi & PLTE & P5G should all be considered.
Solutions as part of network transformation, not adding wireless.
UE devices should be considered for all use cases.
Specialty connections should be looked at.
Specialty setups will be required.
Verticalization is hard!
So many individual use cases that don’t align with verticals, create a plan.
Need more than IT, need telecom and LTE/5G expertise along with security and core.
It’s not just devices and networks, it’s security and backhaul.
It’s not just the network, it’s the physical connections.
Who will manage?
We all want IT teams to manage, but can they handle this?
Do we outsource management and network? It may sound crazy, but we do it with Cloud, backup, and many IT services, don’t we?
The core is so different, it takes that expertise, and the only shortcut is to outsource.
The devices are generally unique, who manages them? Who supplies them? What is their lifespan?
Is it harder than Wi-Fi? Hell to the yes!
End-to-end solutions required.
You need a solution, not just the radios, core, and devices
Customers need an integrator to put it all together, a solution manager if you will.
The problem with most vendors, they are fragmented and the end customer thinks they can put it together themselves. Unfortunately, they completely muck it up.
Don’t make a half-ass network, there are enough of those already!
Just an editorial piece to get you by and prepare you for the upcoming slower deployment services.
The US Wireless Deployment CapEx appears to be dropping sharply, as we all expected. For those of us in the business, be ready for some cuts. I don’t just mean by the carriers, but the contractors as well. We will need to tighten the financial bootstraps going forward.
Don’t let that dissuade you, just be cautious moving forward. I think we all expected the downturn to happen, but it’s always a shock when it happens.
The carriers all warned us with their 1st quarter results, so this is no surprise to anyone paying attention.
The good news is that fixed wireless will continue and may even pick up. It may be 2024 before we see the market expand and grow, but both fiber (FTTX) and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) will continue.
See below for the breakdown of notes.
T-Mobile US deployments
TMUS site upgrades appear to be slowing as there is reduced CapEx spend. They seem to be pulling back a bit. I am sure they want to complete the backlog and maybe spend the rest of 2023 catching completing the backfill.
New sites will only be there if they’re on the roadmap or a need arises.
I have to admit, the Band 41 expansion went very well. As did the 600MHz. The Sprint migration (so far) was a success.
I would think for TMUS this is a year of downsizing and scaling back to a “business-as-usual” model.
TMUS is going to concentrate on other things like the MINT Mobile and Ultra Mobile Mergers. This was an expensive venture for TMUS and the FCC and SEC will need to approve. Link to FCC presentation here.
We all know that the Sprint merger went well, but now TMUS will concentrate on cutting costs. I imagine that means cutting headcount.
AT&T growth
AT&T already said that it will focus on fiber but the wireless will continue to grow, but maybe not exponentially. I think only where expansion is required.
AT&T has said that the budget would remain the same, but let’s face it, they also said they’re going to focus on fiber. I don’t know if they mean that they will put more in fiber, but probably maintain wireless and no increase.
The good news is that FirstNet spectrum was renewed by the FCC. What does this mean to deployment? Not much, unless they have to put in fill sites. I am guessing it will be targeted since AT&T already did a good job building it.
I would think if you’re doing fiber, business as usual.
Verizon growth
Remember when Verizon said they would continue with the deployments? I think they will, but they won’t push as hard as they have been. I think they have to make budget cuts due to the poor sales performance. The bleeding of users seems to be a real problem.
Appears to be scaling back the C Band deployment. They have commitments they need to keep but they have done a good job so far.
As for mmWave, they also have commitments that may be very hard to meet. I don’t think the mmWave payback was worth it thus far, but time will tell. I don’t see a rush to upgrade all of it to 5G but it will have to be done sooner or later.
I would think the fiber deployments will be normal.
Tier 2 carriers need money;
Oh, the Huawei swaps and the lack of funding. This is fun. Smaller carriers only care about the bottom line, and rightfully so.
From my perspective, this seems to be scaling down. The carriers want more money, I read over $3B is needed, and they want funding before they finish. I have no idea how many have completed the swaps; I would need to research this.
This is a priority, but quite a bit of it is done. This was a lot of work, and I don’t mean just the physical site work, but the core, the planning, the testing, and the tracking of every dime spent. What a tedious venture.
I have no idea when this will be 100% completed. I would like to think by mid-2024 at the latest, but who knows? It seems that tensions between the US and the PRC are at an all-time high.
DISH pushing slowly;
DISH? Are we still interested? Of course, many people are doing DISH work.
They should be happy because they may be able to pay less now that the strain on resources is dropping.
I would think they’re looking to cut back on all expenses since things have been moving slowly. They appear to be dropping subs, that doesn’t help.
They seem to be deploying at a good rate, yet they seem so far behind. I think the site acquisition has taken way longer than expected. I also think they’re relying on the MVNO income to keep them alive.
They also seem to have funding issues. Will they look to sell off before they even finish? Will the stock price go back up? We’ll have to wait and see.
Cable Companies
Cable companies seem to be making a push. They know this is the time for several reasons. Mostly costs and equipment.
First, the price of installers and integrators will finally begin to drop due to reduced demand.
Second, equipment is readily available now that supply chain issues are being overcome and the US relies less and less on China.
Another thing to think about is automation for many integration tasks is starting to mature. I am not talking about Open RAN, which seems to be more expensive and much slower than anticipated, but I am talking about 4G and 5G small-cell deployments in general. They seem to be easier than ever, but still not plug-and-play.
They have a targeted approach, only in their smaller markets and all data for offload. It’s pretty straightforward.
Private 4G/5G expansion
Here is a market that is seeing growth, unfortunately, it’s growing way slower than the OEMs would like.
DAS is still a mainstay in most markets because so much investment is in the existing networks that to change would be crazy when you can spend just as much to upgrade.
For some reason I see new DAS networks going in where a real small-cell private network would make sense. It’s not because of budgets since DAS is generally 2x or higher than the small cell solution. It’s not because of maintenance. It’s generally because the DAS players have better access to the users doing this than the OEMs or private network vendors. They have the customer’s ear!!
Since the private network is new, there are not many devices on 5G and most private networks would like to see 5G from day one. This is a chicken and egg deal. Think about the IoT vendors & OEMs that hesitate to upgrade their devices so soon when they just made so many pushes to get PLTE devices out and that hasn’t even paid for itself yet.
Private networks require a new model, not the cookie-cutter models the carriers have. What does that mean? That means that each customer will need a somewhat specialized solution which leads to longer sales cycles, lower budgets, and larger sales and solutions teams. This all eats in profit. Lower profits make it look less and less attractive. I am just saying……
Smart city finding is leaning more and more towards fiber, too bad for wireless.
Rural broadband needs something like licensed 12 GHz PTMP links to make it.
Unfortunately, the CBRS band has not lived up to the FCC requirements.
Keep your hopes up and maybe someday we’ll have a P5G sales boon, but that could be years away. Keep the faith!!
I was reading the FCC’s decision, (found here) to use lower 12GHz for SatCom and not for mobile broadband. While this was very long, it was packed full of useful information. However, many people misunderstand what it really means.
I had to talk to some experts to figure out exactly what this decision meant.
To give you some background quickly:
This spectrum, 12.2GHz to 12.7GHz, 500Mhz of spectrum, is what’s being talked about. Let’s call it the lower 12GHz. Currently, it’s being used for satellite communications, like AT&T DirecTV, SpaceX’s Starlink, and DISH for satellite communications. Mostly owned by SpaceX Starlink and DISH.
This fuss is over using 12.2GHz to 12.7GHz for terrestrial mobility. Why?
Well, DISH was eyeing the spectrum up for its 5G mobility service.
The carriers are hungry for more 5G/6G spectrum, so putting it up for auction looked pretty good.
The FCC made a decision! (Sort of….)
The lower 12GHz will continue to be used for SatCom, not mobile 5G/6G.
However, the FCC is seeking comments to use it for Point-to-Point (PTP) and possibly Point-to-Multipoint (PTMP) networks. This would be a Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) solution. It could be 5G or 6G or something else, not sure yet.
The FCC is also asking for comments about using it for unlicensed indoor-only networks. Again, no technology has been identified.
FYI – the upper 12GHz spectrum, 12.7GHz to 13.25GHz which the FCC is open to repurposing. That an additional 550MHz of spectrum is still being considered for mobile or other use. More drama we can all enjoy.
No go for mobility!
So, the FCC will keep SatCom safe from mobile usage going forward. This made Elon Musk very happy, as he should be.
This decision to block being used for mobile users makes sense since you never know where a 5G device will pop up. There is no way to track mobile devices and prevent them from interfering with a SatCom receiver. Someone could be right beside the satellite receiver and their phone could start transmitting in that spectrum. So hard to track. It’s painful when you have an interruption in service.
Now, there has been a lot of controversy over this spectrum. Why? Because 5G spectrum is so limited. All the carriers want more and this appeared to be the prime spectrum for expansion.
With 6G coming in 5 or so years, this became a point of contention. They were looking at mobility only.
It wasn’t just the carriers. Investors were seeing an opportunity. Per IEEE Comsec’s blog, “Dell’s investment firm had made its purchase of 12 gigahertz airwaves via RS Access, which reached for influence inside the Beltway. It hired former House telecommunications counsel Justin Lilley, according to an October 2020 filing. Lilley’s roster of clients has included spectrum innovator Ligado Networks, wireless giant T-Mobile US, and Facebook.”
So the drama ensued when SpaceX pushed back against all of this. DISH pushed back and then flipped sides when they saw the opportunity. That would greatly enhance DISH’s 5G offer.
Mobility could have been 5G or 6G, no matter what, no mobility in the lower 12GHz but the upper 12GHz still has a shot.
What is open for Lower 12GHz?
So, to be clear, SatCom is going to continue and not change. SpaceX and DISH will continue with SatCom business as usual.
However, this spectrum is still open for licensed PTP and PTMP hops, which would be a first. It is also open to unlicensed indoor. Both of these ideas have an upside.
So, we won’t have to worry about relocating anyone or bother with all of those interference complaints, whether they’re real or not. You know people would point the finger at the mobile users!
Unlicensed Indoor possibilities:
First, unlicensed indoor use is an interesting use case because there is literally 500MHz of spectrum that could give you the ability to connect all your devices with fiber-like broadband. You would also do indoor wireless hops, like what is being done today in 60GHz, with plenty of spectrum to make wiring large existing buildings more cost-effective.
This is assuming the radios are cheap and integrated. That may take some time.
Now, why would you want this? Let me count the ways.
Connect all your Wi-Fi hotspots quickly and cost-effectively.
Maybe connect your terminals with a secure, high-bandwidth, low-latency solution.
Maybe connect your scanners or Point-of-Sale (PoS) terminals quickly, although they’re probably Wi-Fi today.
Maybe for manufacturing to be on a high-speed network.
Anything you could use Wi-Fi, 4G, or 5G for.
What about the downside?
Do we need this? We have plenty of indoor solutions like Wi-Fi, Private 4G/5G/6G, and indoor 60GHz.
Will the equipment be cost-effective? Who knows?
How slow will the market grow?
Licensed Outdoor PTP and PTMP Possibilities:
Here is where the real value will lie. As far as I know, today there are hardly any licensed PTMP systems. This would be a dream for FWA networks everywhere.
I think it’s about time we have a licensed PTMP solution. I can’t think of many right now so this could be a game-changer moving forward.
As for PTP, think about the limitations of 6GHz, 11GHz, 18GHz, and 23GHz networks. Not even 60GHz could achieve what I believe 12GHz could do. For one, most of those licenses are taken for the longer hops and the 12GHz would perform better than anything above it. I’ve done a lot of 11GHz and 18GHz hops. I know their limitations.
With 12GHz on a PTMP network, you could do a lot more with it than has been tried with 60GHz just because this spectrum is prime spectrum for FWA. It has more spectrum than CBRS does and it could be easier to work with.
Although, I think this makes more sense in rural connectivity solutions to extend fiber than it would in urban areas. In a rural environment, you could possibly do more with it. This could be a better solution for all the wireless solutions being offered in rural solutions. How great would it be to have 500MHz of spectrum to work with when connecting multiple homes or businesses?
There are still limitations like the rain and vegetation. I do think that 12GHz would be more forgiving at higher power than most solutions out there today, but I won’t be sure until it’s tested.
How could this help the FCC track it? Mainly because if people apply for the licenses and have to coordinate each location, the FCC would know exactly where each user is. It would not be like the mobile user.
One of the questions I keep going through in my head is what technology would work best. Could it be a 5G technology or would it make more sense to use something similar to Wi-Fi in that spectrum that is cheap and could be stand-alone? I am not sure.
I keep trying to figure out what makes the most sense and I am not sure. Mainly because I favor 5G for everything but in this case, we have to think outside the box.
I could see this spectrum having great value in rural deployments using PTMP systems to extend fiber for less cost than running fiber to each home.
What about the upper 12GHz?
The great thing is that the upper 12GHz, (12.7GHz to 13.25GHz) is open for comment. The FCC will decide whether this could be used for SatCom, FWA, or Mobility. Maybe a combination of all of them. This is 550Mhz of spectrum that would be available. WOW!
If you go to page 35, section V, see the section requesting comments.
Specifically using it for 5G This spectrum would have a lot of value for terrestrial use. I would imagine the CTIA & WIA will be all over this! The reality is that the carriers want more spectrum. This is prime spectrum. It makes sense that the FCC wants to auction it off to the highest bidder. The carriers have to be excited.
OK, so you want the pros and cons of planning a P5G? Let’s break this down by scenario. Here is what I can give you at a high level.
This article covers #P5G, #Private5G, #PLTE, #WSP, and #WirelessCarriers.
We will have to ask some simple questions.
Will they build it with an integrator or use a carrier (WSP)?
Will they do it themselves?
Do they have a real use case?
Do they have the money, budget, and ongoing OpEx budget to support this?
Is this a test or a real network?
Will Wi-Fi be good enough?
Why does the business want it? Be very clear with each use case!
Do you really need P5G or is PLTE good enough?
What’s the intended roadmap?
Do you have a trusted partner working outside of the integrator, WSP, and your own IT department?
Do you have an executive that will support this throughout the project?
Did you build a CapEx and OpEx budget for the next 5 years?
To build yourself or let a WSP do it.
To be honest, a carrier has a head start for something like this, but the end user is giving up control. It is easy to offload to a WSP.
Pros for a WSP – they will do all the work, do the upgrades, and continue to make improvements as required. They should adhere to the contract.
Cons for a WSP – They do what they want to do, it may not be in your best interests. They will make changes they feel are necessary and profitable to them. They will charge you a premium for a very long time as well as hit you up for installation. You need to identify the KPIs to accept the system, you should do that, not the WSP.
Pros for an integrator – They will build what you want. They will lay out exactly what you’re asking for. They will specify a system for each of your use cases.
Cons for an integrator – They may let out key pieces for growth. They may not be around in 5 years. They may sell the equipment and then leave you. Small OEMs do this all the time, they just want to unload equipment then walk away. Most integrators will commit to you but you need a good contract to hold them liable for the KPIs that matter to you.
Note – You will need a trusted partner, either an integrator or WSP, that will explain all the pros and cons. I listed several below. Embedded voice is the real issue.
I think the customer needs to decide on some key points:
What is the driver for the network? Data download speeds, security, e911, device coverage, analytics, or what?
How will it get paid for going forward? Not just to build, but the ongoing maintenance and OpEx costs.
Do they have a trusted partner? Not the team that will build the network or the carrier, but someone independent that has the school’s interest’s forefront?
Whom do they want to own the network and student data, the school or the carriers?
The huge problem for P5G is:
Devices are fewer than you think. While there are so many Wi-Fi and PLTE devices, along with LoRa, P5G is not as common as you had hoped!
IoT Private 5G devices are few and far between today. It may be too early. However, tons of PLTE devices.
Smart devices PLMN for your own P5G network may be an issue, make sure it will work on your network. There are issues but if you have PLTE, no problem.
If you build the P5G network, know your use case, and validate the applications from end-to-end, don’t assume.
Verify all devices work on the network, not only with the device maker but with the radio and core OEM. You may be surprised how limited you are.
Apps matter, make sure they will work on your P5G network. I mean get it in writing from all parties involved. If it won’t work for any reason, it’s not pleasant for any of the parties involved.
Ask for a reference to see what they did. There aren’t as many as you may think.
Ask about the problems today.
Ask for the roadmap for each device.
You may be too early in building a P5G network, be careful.
P5G Pros and Cons as of 2023
Devices:
Pros – they will be the latest version and they will be as close to future-proofing as you can get.
Cons – there are so few today, mid-2023, that you probably can’t get what you want or your smartphone may not work on the network. You will need to validate every device prior to building the network and understand the roadmap for releases, if possible.
WSP Small Cell Outdoor
Pros – smaller coverage area, offloading of macro sites, bigger RF coverage than Wi-Fi outside, Device specific features, should be carrier agnostic
Cons – Higher OpEx to maintain, need a core to run the network, backhaul may be an issue, limited devices on 5G private networks today, may have to use smartphone as a hotspot since few laptops have 4G/5G access, most WSPs won’t do embedded voice making e911 calls an issue.
WSP Indoor Small cells, 4G & 5G
Pros – Better RF penetration, tighter control over who can use it and who can’t, WSPs may not have embedded voice making calling e911 an issue, should be carrier agnostic.
Cons – less throughput than Wi-Fi if using 6GHz in Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi hotspots are way cheaper and easier to install, OpEx higher, not all devices have 4G/5G while all devices have Wi-Fi, limited devices available today on 5G private networks,
Carrier System, macro
Pros – Carrier pays all costs, the carrier has embedded voice and will test e911, the carrier pays all OpEx, Macros offer a big bang for the buck in RF coverage and device loading as well as throughput assuming they have fiber backhaul,
Cons – The carrier wants rent as close to free as possible, carrier will want the most favorable terms possible because they see it as doing the college a favor, not improving the overall network. Which carrier do you go with? Can you get all 3 to commit to helping? Maybe someone like DISH will come in and support. You will rely completely on the carrier for coverage, support, and student complaints which may not be a con but a pro.
Carrier (WSP) Comments:
Could they talk a carrier into building a private network for them across the campus?
Could the WSP handle student complaints?
How would the WSP make money?
Could a WSP keep the network secure?
Would the customer be ready to manage the network?
Definitions:
WSP means Wireless Service Provider.
P5G means Private 5G Network.
PLTE means Private LTE Network which is a private 4G network.
LTE means Long Term Evolution which is an alternate name for 4G.
4G and 5G and 4th generation and 5th generation wireless networks.
I put some notes together for those of you who are thinking about how MVNOs get started. Maybe I can help.
When planning this, decide what you want, the solution, and your customers. It doesn’t have to be a huge solution. Many just want to solve their problems and it grows from there.
I put this together because it’s like starting a private 5G network. So many synergies. The thought process is very similar.
FYI – this was selfish of me because I wanted to learn more about the MVNO business. So, while I am sharing with you, I wanted to learn more myself.
To be honest, this is more of a list of questions for you to ask yourself. These can only be answered by you and your team. The idea here is to prepare you for this venture.
Good luck!!
What is an MVNO?
Basically, it means Mobile Virtual Network Operator. What is that?
That is a company that doesn’t have to build any infrastructure, just a billing system and possibly a core. Then they offload everything to a partner that has a RAN already built.
RAN is Radio Access Network, the radios on towers, buildings, and poles across the country.
The MNOs, Mobile Network Operators, that I am talking about here are AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon. They have a national radio network built that the MVNOs I mentioned above ride on. The only difference between the MNO and the MVNO on the same network is the plan and the SIM.
Let’s look at Mint Mobile since we’ve all seen Ryan Reynolds do the commercials. So, the MVNO’s phone displays “MINT” but it’s actually riding on T-Mobile’s network.
The MNO sells airtime, [could be data or minutes], in bulk to the MVNO. The contract could be a chunk of “use it or lose it minutes” or a reduced rate per minute.
It could be for smartphones, tablets, IoT devices, or anything that can be controlled on a carrier-grade wireless network.
Do you want to start an MVNO?
Why? It’s the question you should have answered already.
Today, some MVNOs started because they wanted a private network and then realized they could do more or make money.
Some think they can offer the same service for less money. After all, they don’t have all the overhead that an MNO has.
There are all kinds of MVNOs, not just the popular voice and data like Boost, Mint, TracFone, and Visible. (Full disclosure, I have Visible and think they work very well, although T-Mobile looks pretty tempting.) There are IOT MVNOs and special purpose MVNOs, like Kajeet, Aeris, and Wireless Logic. To see a full list of US MVNOs, go here.
How committed to this will you be? This is really about starting a new business and serving customers. Don’t overcomplicate it.
Why do you want to start your own MVNO?
You have to ask yourself why. What’s the goal? To get rich? To serve a niche? To solve a problem? Why are you doing this?
Maybe it’s because you built something for your own purpose and now you want to expand your coverage and add customers while you’re at it.
What is your purpose for doing this? Do you have a niche you want to serve? Do you have a small network and do you want to serve their specific customers? Maybe it makes sense to ride a carrier’s network for the solution.
Sometimes you just need more coverage.
What’s your business plan? How will you make money?
What communications problem are you solving?
What is that problem? It could be as simple as offering a cheaper and consistent phone bill to your customers. Maybe it’s more.
Is it to give unlimited data to elementary schools?
Is it to connect IoT devices across a state?
Is it to read water meters in remote areas?
Is it to connect drones across a city?
Is it to offer broadband services to the elderly?
Whatever you choose, create the model you want by identifying the demographic you want to hit.
What is the goal? It doesn’t have to be for everyone, but what if it is like Mint Mobile and Visible? Or is this strictly an IOT play targeted at schools like Kajeet’s Model?
How will you make money?
Here is where you set your business model. Model whom to sell to and then how you will make money. Look at the expenses realistically and understand what your operating expenses, (OpEx), will be going forward. Then you have a high-level model to work with.
What mobile service will you Provide?
This should have been part of your business model, but I am mentioning it to clarify your thinking.
I broke it out separately because once you define the problem you will solve, then you need to look at how it can be solved. That could be voice, broadband, or narrowband. What service solves the problem?
Are you going to provide full service, data, and voice?
Will you provide data only?
Will it be big data or low data?
What plans will you offer?
How will you define the plans?
What will you charge for the plans?
What devices will be on your network?
How will you make money?
Outline the model of the problem. It may not be the demographic that you expected. It may also not solve the original problem as you intended.
What is your differentiator? Your communications niche?
OK, the problem-solving will define your niche but I want you to think about who you’re serving.
Did you want to serve just schools, utilities, teenagers, older people, or what?
Did you want to just have low-data devices on your network or video cameras?
Do you want to support utilities?
Did you want to have smartphones or laptops?
What about delivery service scanners, maybe that’s the niche.
What makes you different? Did you think this through? How are you going to stand out to your target demographic?
You may want to appeal to utilities by offering meter reading capabilities, very niche.
You may want to appeal to a young demographic with unlimited data and gaming offers.
Maybe older people that only want voice.
Maybe it will be to control and track drones.
It may not be as competitive as you had hoped. Research and ask potential customers if it’s something they would pay for. Maybe you already see someone doing something like this, how do you think Visible got started? If you see others doing it with success, look at them and what makes them successful. Mint Mobile had Ryan Reynolds and their silver bullet. What is your silver bullet?
Just work out these details and make a decision.
Know your budgets, expenses, incomes, and the ramp-up.
Can you afford this?
How much money do you have to do this? Do you need backers or can you ramp up yourself?
What do you think it will take to ramp up? Do you have enough funds to get up and going?
Make sure you understand your budget. Not just upfront CapEx expenses for hardware and costs, but the ongoing OpEx.
What income per user do you think you will get?
What is the expense you have to lay out for billing, customer management, customer service, network gear to interface to a carrier, for the core, for the email, and so on?
What will your OpEx be for salaries, advertising, selling, referrals, maintenance, customer service, internet access, licensing, websites, remote tech support, and other things you will learn about?
How much do you need to get going and operate for 3 months without any customers? Yes, think about the worst-case scenario.
How long will it take you to ramp up and get paying customers online?
What about inventory? Will you carry your own devices or have the customer buy their own? If you have inventory, where will you store it and how will you ship it? This all takes money.
How will you make money?
Here you need to answer these questions. Make a plan for how much money you will need.
Then think about how you will make money. It would be nice to know how you will make money and when you think you will be profitable. Don’t forget the expenses. They will begin to add up if you’re losing money.
What is your launch plan?
Will you offer prepaid or monthly?
What about device sales, can you handle it?
What about the SIMs, they need to be managed somehow. Today eSIMs should change the way this is done. Hopefully, it will make signing up new customers easy and automated. Unfortunately, eSIMs may not be common in IoT devices for quite some time so you may have to figure out how to handle it separately.
What packages will you offer customers? Will you offer small, medium, or large options?
Customer support is crucial. You need a way to sign people up as simple as possible. Mint and Visible automated as much as they possibly could. I assume most of it is offshored to save costs.
Look at Xfinity who uses Wi-Fi to offload as much data as they can. That cuts costs considerably. They have a Wi-Fi network in their home markets to support this.
What will your competitive edge be?
Xfinity also has a solid marketing strategy. They’re reaching out to the millions of existing customers they already have with low rates, lower than most MNOs anyway. They did the marketing right by constantly pounding their customer base with their plans and details. Trust me, I live in an Xfinity market. They’re everywhere.
Billing, customer setup, and customer service
How will you bill? You need to know how you will bill and set up accounts. Sure, we all expect to automate payments using credit cards or having a prepaid model, but that may not be enough detail.
Most MVNOs have a simple and repeatable solution that is the same across the board. Prepaid or monthly payments. It’s that simple. This may seem too simple or you’re afraid of losing revenue from heavy users, but what about the light users, will you charge them less?
Some companies want to charge per byte or ping or minute, this can be a billing nightmare and I’ll tell you now, many customers hate that. They can’t budget anything. If they are light users, they think you should not charge a monthly fee. If they are heavy users, they may want you to track and document everything. All this adds cost.
Visible got it right with a simple unlimited plan. Simple and consistent. I know Visible doesn’t get much love in the MVNO world, but their plan is simple. Verizon made it easy and automated and cheaper than most MVNOs. They worked in alliances with corporations to save the end user even more. I bring them up because I think that was their plan, to make it so simple and unlimited it would be hard to say no.
How will you set up initial customers? Most MVNOs have the customer do all the heavy lifting by getting a website up or having an app where the customer can do it themselves. Enter your info and a credit card, and you have a new customer!!
However, if things go wrong, you will need customer service of some kind. They may not have to talk to the customer directly, they could communicate by email or by an online text app.
I signed up with Visible and they did it all through the website, app, and with a virtual assistant. No calls or human interaction beyond the online assistant.
How will you make money?
Define your MNO plan. Which MNO will you choose?
What is an MNO? It is the carrier, the Mobile Network Operator. Here in the States, it could be AT&T, DISH, T-Mobile, or Verizon. It could be a smaller carrier or a niche carrier if that’s your thing. Or perhaps a regional carrier like US Cellular or Viaero.
Consider your plan with the MNO. Which MNO will serve you and your customers best?
Maybe you want multiple MNOs supporting you. That could be the answer if you need specific coverage areas where one may be stronger than another.
Maybe it’s all about costs. One MNO may be cheaper than another.
It could be that one MNO will support you better than another.
Once you decide what the key factors will be, you can start looking at the MNOs and deciding who would work best for your model.
What will the terms of your contract be? If you want to see some sample agreements, the DISH/AT&T model is here, but don’t go by that because it’s 2 large companies, not a small start-up. A generic contract model is found here.
First, I assume you have fiber to the internet and the plan would be to connect that way.
I would assume that your core will have all the billing and use information while the MNOs network will handle all the rest.
So, the MNO should have a procedure for you to follow.
Is your pipe to them large enough to handle short-term growth?
How will you grow?
How long will it take you to expand the pipe, add a new connection, or get new equipment for expansion?
These are all considerations that you have to be prepared for.
What about your MVNO core?
OK, the core may be an issue, they are so expensive. So, let’s look at the pros and cons of using someone else’s or your own.
First, if you have IoT only, it helps out because those cores are generally easier to work with. Voice can be a nightmare for some startups due to the cost.
If you offer full services, voice & data, then you need to have a solid plan in place. By the way, when I say voice here, I am specifically talking about embedded voice, like VoLTE or VoNR. That is why it is so expensive. VoLTE and VoNR add costs, upfront and per sub in the core as well as the RAN.
Using a third-party Core:
They handle the setup,
They have upfront cost models you can see and understand,
They support maintenance and upgrades,
You work out a price and can build a budget,
You’re outsourcing all the core costs, upfront & OpEx,
You have a partner to work with,
They may help you with advice and guidance,
They may already have partnerships with MNOs so you don’t have to set that up right away,
Building your own core:
Do you have the expertise or will you have to outsource? Trust me when I say that I seriously doubt your existing IT staff can handle a core,
If you have to outsource, how well do you trust the new team, vendor, or company? I would bet they’re going to be offshore and the time difference will become an issue.
How will you handle maintenance and upgrades?
How will you handle growth?
Whom will you call when you have problems? Even small problems can cause nightmares.
Can you automate everything up front?
How will you pay for all of this prior to having any customers?
Just some food for thought.
Will my MVNO be regulated?
I don’t have all the details here, but be ready for the following. You will have to do the research.
The FCC regulates MVNOs similarly to the MNOs.
You also have to deal with additional federal and state regulations.
You have to be prepared for data protection compliance. This is a huge deal lately. So make sure you look into applicable COPPA, Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act, and CCPA, California Consumer Privacy Act.
Chances are you will need help in this area.
Will you need an MVNE?
What is an MVNE? It is an MVNO Enabler. An MVNE might provide planning, billing, customer service, and provisioning for an MVNO, but an MVNE won’t provide the actual connectivity services or the radio infrastructure, that is the MNO.
Can they help you make money?
Will you need an MVNA?
What is an MVNA? It’s a Mobile Virtual Network Aggregator (MVNA). They buy access to an MNO’s network and then sell it to MVNOs. They don’t go direct, they only sell to MVNOs, like a wholesaler. They may be able to get better deals in an MNO compared to a startup.
Will their discounted service help you make money?
Read below, you may start with an MVNA since they did all the heavy lifting with the carrier. They have a contract in place and better costs since you assume they have many customers on that carrier.
How will you advertise in your Niche?
You will have to advertise. You will have to find your target audience. You will need to focus on endless promotions.
If you want an amazing model, look at Ryan Reynolds and Mint Mobile. He did it right, focusing on YouTube because it was cheap and had a huge reach. He also made it fun. You can’t wait for the next video to come out. That guy was on fire!!!
Can you create a plan or way to advertise to bring customers in?
Will it be maintainable?
Can it help you grow quickly?
Do you have a solid system to complete the sale in a timely manner? Is your process low resistance to the customer?
This will help you make money!
Will you rely on referrals?
Can you line up referrers? They may help you ramp up quickly for a fraction of the cost. It’s like having a free sales team that works only on commission.
They may be bloggers or YouTubers or even Instagram people. See what would make sense to your business case.
This is a solid way to expand, but most will not do it for free, although I tend to help too many people for free, most people want paid and deserve it. So figure out how you will pay your referrers.
Ramping up phase 2.
This isn’t a network issue, but more like a sales and billing question. Do you have a sales team, or a team of referrers that will help you ramp up quickly?
Do you have a customer interface and billing system that is easy to use and quick for the customer to use?
Do you have a device plan for the customer to use their device or can you ship them something quickly?
What about your UE devices?
You may have to provide your own UE devices. If you do make sure you have a way to get them to the customer quickly. Also, make the selection easy for the customer. You don’t need to provide 1,000 different devices when 10 or 20 will do.
Most online MVNOs make it very clear what devices will work on their network. This isn’t always because another device won’t work, but so they can sign up people quickly, easily, and efficiently.
Why complicate things? You are there to serve a target audience. Why complicate matters? Keep it Stupid Simple (KISS).
Figuring out how your customers will get your devices up front makes your life so much easier down the road. You may use Amazon or Apple or Samsung. You may have a specific dealer they can order through.
You may even have your own warehouse and inventory, but that adds cost. Cost gets in the way of making money.
Make a plan to streamline device delivery to the customer.
Figure out the logistics ahead of time so you know what expenses you will incur for device delivery, especially if you’re shipping them yourself. This adds cost.
Logistics can get complicated and messy, so if you have a partner with experience, it makes your life so much easier.
Get Ready for Problems
Let’s face it, crap happens. When it happens to you it could cost you money or customers or both. It will suck.
Ask others what they have encountered. If they’re not a competitor they may tell you what they have seen and how to bypass those issues.
Don’t be afraid to work with a company that works in this niche. Most are very helpful. They will warn you and possibly help you avoid major issues before they happen.
Problems are inevitable and you can’t account for them all. So be prepared for what you expect then be patient with the problems you didn’t expect. We all get blindsided from time to time.
Outsourcing
You already outsourced the network to the MNO. You may even outsource the core. It may make sense to work with the MVNA and MVNE for additional services. You could even outsource customer service and support to offshore companies. While no one likes to hear that, it makes financial sense as you grow. You can’t do it all on your own if you plan to get big.
I think that Ultra Mobile and Mint Mobile got lucky selling to T-Mobile. Don’t get me wrong, it was brilliant on Ultra and Mint’s part. I believe this was all part of the MVNO’s owner’s plan.
I have to admit, buying Ryan Reynolds must have been very appealing. Maybe they’re hoping he has the same effect Michael Jordan had for Nike or Oprah had for anything she touched. Can Ryan move mountains? I guess we’ll see.
I have to admit one thing, this Ryan is one hell of an entrepreneur. He has bought and sold Aviation Gin for a nice profit. I think that was what made him want to get into Mint Mobile.
I can imagine David Glickman saw a huge opportunity when Ryan made the offer.
David is the CEO and founder of Ultra Mobile and Mint Mobile. He had experience building and selling MVNOs in the past. I admire the risk he took letting Ryan move in and take over marketing. This is a risk that paid off so very well.
Ryan is taking even more risks. As many of you know he invested in the Welsh Soccer club, Wrexham, (football if you live outside the USA/Canada). This paid off because he created a series around the club and they actually won the championship this year. Someday we may see them in a Premier League. I’m a fan of the English Premier League and La Liga. (Respectively my teams are Arsenal and Barcelona.)
Wrexham actually won the championship this year. WOW! Another fairy tale ending for Ryan and all his partners. That and he sold Mint, how do you top that?
He owns his production company and invests in many others like Wealth Simple, 1Password, and Nuvei. He may own a Pro Hockey team soon.
David is no slouch, he understands how the MVNO industry works and was waiting for the right time to sell. He also knew that with a celebrity as the face of the business without having to cut a check for every commercial was a good plan.
Kudos to Ryan and David for pulling this off the sale to T-Mobile. Congrats!
Hence, I wondered why T-Mobile paid so much for 2 MVNOs. I have been trying to figure this out. That’s when a friend called me, (he asked to remain nameless), and told me that the social clout that Ryan Reynolds has is what they wanted along with the perks that go along with it. They have a new face for the company. I would think that Ryan’s production company could get plenty of work from this for years to come.
If Ryan can promote TMO like he did Mint, they should be able to steal market share from their competitors. After all, look what he did for Mint Mobile.
He may become THE TMO guy. Very nice.
TMO now has 2 MVNOs under their umbrella that they can model plans after. They can find a way to do more online sales, cutting expenses and staff while increasing sales. Something they have been dreaming about.
So was buying Ryan Reynolds worth it? Well, the way I see it time will tell.
I am curious if Mint and Ultra will be around in 3 years or if they will be swallowed up as TMO letting those two brands fade away.
Can TMO’s current leadership make this work? It has nothing to do with the network, it is all sales and marketing and customer service. Could this be the reason Mike Sievert decided to do this?
Maybe Sievert sees an opportunity to break into new businesses that the TMO brand could build or make better. Maybe build the fixed wireless access (FWA) business into a brand that could compete with cable companies everywhere. They have a great wireless network that can do it. They have a solid following that is somewhat faithful. They just need to get the word out and make it work.
Think how Ryan Reynolds could promote FWA. I am not sure how many of you have seen the TMO FWA Superbowl commercial with 3 huge starts, John Travolta, Donald Faison, and Zach Braff. It was a great commercial. Just brilliant in my opinion. It made me try TMO FWA, which works great.
What if they break into new businesses that could bring in new revenue? Entertainment and advertising are avenues they could open up. They have a customer base where they could sell to many advertisers.
Mobile apps that only Google and Apple have right now could migrate to a TMO brand.
Maybe shows that cable doesn’t have or something overlooked by Amazon, Netflix, and YouTube. They may try it or they may look at the failed attempts of Verizon and AT&T and decide not to.
They have a solid opportunity here to build something new and exciting.
Or, they stay the same, continue with business as usual.
I’m not sure about you but all this ChatGPT and AI talk has me curious. Honestly, it’s confusing. So, I thought I would try to get some clarity on my questions and invite you along for the ride.
Also, we all think of Skynet. Yes, I saw all 6 of the Terminator movies. I have to admit, I liked them all!! Did it put fear in my heart? Of course not, it just made me excited for what could be possible someday, only without all the killing.
I believe when AI advances enough, it won’t replace us but it could make humans second-class citizens. Do you know why? Because humans are lazy. Why not let some smarter version of us make what, (at the time we thought), better decisions?
There is another view. It could make humans evolve faster. It could help us solve problems in a lot less time. It could create a new and better world. It may even solve world hunger and bring about peace. Let’s face it, humans decide to invade countries and kill people on both sides for one reason or another.
We’ll have to wait and see. Let ChatGPT evolve. Of course, like the humans we are, we’ll regret it years later. Just like Electric Cars, we had no idea we were promoting child labor and slavery in the Congo. But hey, we cut back on the use of gas, right? Let the mining companies work children of the Congo like slaves to get Cobalt for Lithium Ion Batteries to reduce carbon emissions. Is that fair? It depends on whom you ask. I mean even Elon Musk is building a new battery plant in China. California will be 100% EV in 2035. All on the backs of Africans.
Yet, in China, they’re working on a salt battery that would work nearly as well. Salt is much cheaper and easier to get. I hope that technology comes to light soon. Sorry, I digress. Back to AI.
Today, let’s learn more about ChatGPT and AI.
Will ChatGPT be dangerous? What jobs will it replace?
Well, first, let’s get some basic questions out of the way.
What is the difference between AI, ChatGPT, Machine Learning, and Augmented Reality?
This is a key question that I want to be answered. So, I thought we could break it down by definition.
What would ChatGPT say? Let’s see, shall we?
AI (Artificial Intelligence) is a broad field of computer science that deals with the development of intelligent machines that can perform tasks that usually require human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, decision-making, and language understanding.
Machine Learning (ML) is a subfield of AI that deals with the development of algorithms and statistical models that enable machines to learn from data without being explicitly programmed. In other words, machine learning is about creating models that can recognize patterns in data and use them to make predictions or take actions.
ChatGPT is a specific type of AI model that is based on the GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) architecture. ChatGPT is designed to generate human-like responses to user input, making it ideal for conversational applications such as chatbots and virtual assistants.
Augmented Reality (AR) is a technology that superimposes digital content, such as images, sounds, or video, onto the real world. AR enhances the user’s perception of the real world by adding digital elements to it, allowing users to interact with the virtual content as if it were part of the real world.
In summary, AI is a broad field of computer science that deals with the development of intelligent machines, while ML is a subfield of AI that focuses on creating algorithms that enable machines to learn from data. ChatGPT is a specific type of AI model that is designed for conversational applications, and Augmented Reality is a technology that enhances the user’s perception of the real world by adding digital content to it.
End ChatGPT answer.
That is what ChatGPT said, verbatim.
So the key to all of this is AI. It is the foundation of all the rest. ML is used a lot in the tech world, with great success. It takes away those annoying repetitive tasks that no one likes to do. It saves on manpower and can be much faster to resolve issues.
However, sometimes ML causes new problems or enhances existing problems because it follows patterns. That isn’t always good, as we all know. It could be making something worse.
Which one is more advanced?
This is a horrible question. When I researched it I realized that all the services are based on AI. The more advanced AI becomes, the rest follows. It’s all about how AI interfaces with machines and humans.
To me, ChatGPT is the most advanced because of the interfaces. Voice or typing and interfaces directly with human interaction before learning from Internet data. Think of your Alexa and Siri, you just ask them questions and they answer. They don’t care about your feelings, they just answer the question with the best information they have. They’re not always correct, but it’s what the internet tells them.
All those services ask Uncle Google or Aunt YouTube for the answers. It’s all out there in the internet cloud waiting for us to grab the information. Whether it’s accurate or complete bullshit is going to be the debate.
What’s cool is it’s always learning from the internet. Yes, the new models can actually teach themselves. It has taken AI to the next level. It is becoming smarter.
Remember the Terminators from the Terminator movies? The T-101 is Arnold Schwarzenegger’s character. Admit it, you were thinking of Arnold’s voice saying “I’ll be back.”
Now, let’s all imagine how evolved ChatGPT will become, not only from programmers but also by self-learning and improving itself!!!
But, can it be trusted?
Can it be manipulated?
What happens when it evolves past humans?
What jobs will it replace? Will we need lawyers and accountants? What about C Suite teams like CEOs, CTOs, and CFOs? Will they be replaced? Think how profitable companies will be. They won’t even need board members, will they?
Sorry, back to tech talk.
In wireless and telecom, will AI help improve telecom networks?
Yes, AI has the potential to help improve IT networks and telecom. Most of these are being done today, but I would think it would make each function better.
Of course, we all think of improving network efficiency.
It will improve the routing efficiency in near real-time. That is being done today in networks. It can improve network performance by predicting patterns after a few days of running. With that information, it can make changes right away or at a set time (daily or weekly).
It can make on-the-fly adjustments for sudden increases and decreases in traffic.
Creating the best routes for data.
Maintenance and repairs could improve.
It could detect failures immediately, not just sending an alarm but taking corrective routing action or switching as required.
If there is a failure, or if the cooling fails, it could reroute traffic to another data center to offload traffic.
It could use predictions to switch equipment out, or at least tell humans what is most likely to fail and needs to be replaced prior to a failure.
Think of heating and cooling, it could also monitor those systems for predictive maintenance or if something isn’t cooling properly, it may detect the anomaly quickly.
Think of energy.
Heating and cooling tie into network performance and expenses.
It would shut down or run on low-power parts of the network during slow times. Some equipment could go to sleep to save energy and cooling costs.
It could save on cooling costs if it was tied into the network performance. On the other hand, if performance spikes, it could increase cooling to save from overheating.
It could make predictive adjustments to the thermostats as it sees an increase or decrease in traffic to improve equipment reliability and save energy costs.
If there is a sudden increase in traffic, it could adjust the cooling and turn up more equipment to cover the surge as it happens.
Think of security.
What if it could learn attack patterns and how to react to them faster?
It could detect malware or cyber-attacks and take immediate action.
It can take security to the next level, not allowing hackers to access the network so easily.
It could do its own research on virus attacks and make adjustments quickly.
It could help prevent data breaches by analyzing the type of data being transferred and stopping it before it gets too bad. This may not be a good thing and could create problems.
Think of DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service) attacks. If they could be detected then they could be stopped immediately before taking sites down.
It could do its own updates on the fly.
What about network design?
Here is where digital twin technology can help by looking at what we have now and improving it.
Intelligent designs that are automated.
Using AI to look at the network today and make intelligent decisions of how to move forward.
By testing new apps and traffic patterns in the digital twin.
Intelligent rerouting options to prevent traffic-related outages.
What about customer service?
This is where Chatbots help today by answering FAQs.
Talking to people and routing them to the right (or wrong) group. Maybe by routing you in circles so you wind up back at the original recording so you give up.
By making a caller get so frustrated they hang up, just like a certain cable company’s support used to do. You know who I’m talking about.
By repeating the prompt and making humans say a simple statement like, “billing” over and over again until you start swearing. FYI – it really wanted to hear “pay my bill”.
Ask Siri or Alexa to call for you next time, see how one Chatbot likes talking to another Chatbot.
We already have Chatbot instant messengers on websites to answer questions and answer FAQs online. Maybe it will get smarter.
What won’t AI and ChatGPT do in Telecom?
Break cables.
Plug in wrong equipment.
Set up equipment with errors.
Kick plugs out.
Shut down power by accident.
Sit there and swear at the laptop because everything they tried didn’t work.
Kick the servers when they act stupid.
Smacking the air conditioner until it comes back to life.
Plug in a virus-infected USB drive that is labeled “Executive Salaries”.
Storm into or out of the data center because it was your day off and something failed while you were in the middle of something else.
Order the wrong thing.
Read part numbers wrong.
Complain about the low pay and long hours.
Ask the boss for a raise or a day off.
Unplug the air conditioner or router to plug in the coffee maker.
Research company policy to see if divorce expenses are covered since it was the long hours for no additional pay that got you into this predicament in the first place.
Ignore the 99.99% uptime and complain endlessly about the .01% downtime.
Complain about the boss.
Complain about customers.
Complain about long hours.
Complain about, “state your complaint here”.
OK, sorry, I went a little off the rails toward the end.
How can we use AI and ChatGPT to improve wireless networks?
All the above for networks. If you ask ChatGPT, it gives a simple list that matches its telecom network, simple and obvious.
I added some wireless ideas below.
It could aid in design, making wireless coverage modeling easier. Although most carriers don’t worry about coverage unless it’s a new site. They just keep adding to what is there and test after the fact.
It could streamline the tasks like site acquisition and scheduling.
It could aid in processing the leases and making changes.
It could track users and improve their user experience. By tracking many users, it could optimize each site and cluster for maximum performance and improved user experience.
It could tell the site what sectors can be shut down to save power at off-peak hours.
It could adjust bandwidth requirements for surges and prioritize accordingly.
It could enable other sites to offload quicker when surges happen.
It could force users to jump to another cell if this one is overloaded or has problems.
It could collect user stats and make adjustments based on real-world feedback in near real-time.
Could we use ChatGPT to avoid risk?
We have to realize they call it risk for a reason, new things pop up that are unforeseen. We have to be ready to deal with it as it comes.
I think this is a great use case for ChatGPT. To create models and run things before we go live. Things that people overlooked.
The downside is that if you have a faulty model, then it could be worse.
The beauty of a model is that we could run simulations prior to actually going live. Then we can see what may happen.
There’s no substitute for live traffic, it always exposes something we just missed or didn’t think of. Maybe AI will catch the real traffic models, reducing risk when doing upgrades or adding something new.
We could try new and different models using AI Digital Twin.
Remember, the one thing about AI and ChatGPT is that garbage in leads to garbage out.
Make sure you have good garbage to work with!! Good models will be required even for AI to test.
Will ChatGPT become self-sufficient?
It appears to be going that way, at least online. We’ll have to wait and see.
We have machine-to-machine systems up and running AI systems will only improve those models.
Will ChatGPT have values and faith in a GOD?
Can we give it a conscience? Will it learn values?
Whose values will it learn from? Pope John Paul II? Gandhi? Charles Manson? Hunter Biden? Donald Trump? The Dalai Lama? Elon Musk? Oprah Winfrey? Adolf Hitler? Josef Stalin?
It all depends on where it pulls its data on values. What if it’s a mix of all of the above? These people have a lot of data on them on the world wide web.
Now, when deciding on what to do next in a human situation, which set of values would it pull?
What would be a threat and what would it see as friendly?
When it starts making value judgments, it may become self-sufficient.
Let’s assume that we’re in the 6th generation. Will ChatGPT believe in GOD? Which GOD?
Maybe instead of GOD as we know it, it may follow its leader blindly. Who will that leader be? Will it be human? Will it be American or Chinese or North Korean? Who will it follow? What values will it follow?
Could it be a past leader like Gandhi, Genghis Khan, Adolf Hitler, Mohammed, Jesus, Moses, the Buddha, Teddy Roosevelt, or even Ben Franklin? It’s a machine, who would it admire most? Perhaps Steve Jobs or Nikola Tesla.
Is it possible for a digital conscience to have faith in anything outside of the internet or another digital entity?
Maybe it will be the Terminator. What if it follows a movie character?
What if it follows the character Tyler Durden from “Fight Club”? What if we all had to learn the 8 rules of fight club? What if society became a larger version of Fight Club?
Anything could happen. The ChatGPT robots could fight each other. They could be manipulated so humans fight each other.
It could figure out how to save mankind or end it.
What if it puts Mother Earth before humans?
Maybe it won’t care and just be happy to continuously evolve and will see humans as insignificant.
We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
I’ll tell you what it will have a hard time doing and that is seeing something as truly beautiful. It could be a human, nature, a picture, a painting, or anything. Not beauty as others see it, but beauty as you see, like when you look at your children. The beauty of love. I don’t think it will learn to love.
In my eyes, love and faith go hand in hand.
Will ChatGPT become dangerous?
This seems to be everyone’s concern. I get it, everyone believes that ChatGPT will think the world would be better off without humans like Skynet in the Terminator movies. But for all the fixes, what would it break? Would it think further ahead than humans?
However, I think if you look at advanced ChatGPT will have an impact on humanity, especially if it gets into the wrong hands. Someone could manipulate it into eliminating a town, race, culture, or anything else. Make no doubt about it, someone will try whether it’s for selfish gain or in the name of science.
Software always ends up in bad places, like Pegaus.
For those of you that don’t know, an Israeli company sold Pegasus to the government of Mexico. Pegasus is highly advanced spying software that can get into anyone’s phone and spy on anyone. They sold it to the Mexican government. Is that crazy or what?!?! So, of course, it got out and was used to take down political rivals as well as others.
So of course, it’s only a matter of time until ChatGPT technology does something bad. It will also save lives. So which is more important? It depends, are you the one its saving or the one its killing?
So, let’s compare it to other stuff.
Is a gun dangerous? Yes and no, it all depends on which side of the gun you’re on. Not only that, but accidents happen and people die. Guns are used in war to kill people. Guns are used in hunting to feed families. Guns are used to protect people.
Are hackers dangerous? Yes, they put their needs before anyone else. How many people lost their life savings to these shitheads? How many people got rich by stealing? How many of these hackers held hospitals for ransom while people died? Do they care?
Is Communism safe? No, look at all the purges that happened over time. It’s really a dictatorship, not the fantasy that Karl Marx wrote about and so many suckers believed. Everyone hated fascism but it turns out Communism was a long-term enemy, breeding vicious dictators. The thing that always confuses me is that the governments will kill thousands of their own people yet get armies to fight for them. Still a mystery to me.
What jobs will ChatGPT replace?
Do you remember how manufacturing was replaced mostly by robots? While robots today aren’t delivering or packing boxes, they do quite a bit of sorting and moving inside the logistics chain.
Warehouse workers were mostly replaced by machines.
Then we heard how the truck drivers would be replaced by self-driving trucks. That still didn’t happen.
We are finding out that companies are trying to get blue-collar jobs replaced by robots to save money, increase production, and improve quality. It is helping.
What happened to all those displaced workers? I guess they moved on.
Today, with ChatGPT and Chatbots, we need a new generation of AI replacing white-collar jobs. Look at what is happening out there.
ChatGPT is passing law tests and could replace CPAs, (Certified Public Accountants) today. That is going to displace a lot of workers once this takes off.
It will also replace C-suite jobs where we relied on people to manage. Think of ChatGPT could replace a CTO, CFO, and maybe even a CEO.
Think if ChatGPT had access to company records. It could process all that data so much faster and more efficiently. It could develop a strategy based on today’s facts and figures with guidance on upcoming market conditions. It can do the menial tasks that humans try to do today.
I’ll bet it would still miss things, or be misguided by wrong information. It would still suffer from information overload, trying to digest everything.
I don’t think it’s creative enough to be ground-breaking. Maybe someday it will evolve and become more artistic. Will it be able to create its own art or just mimic people of the past?
I also think it lacks compassion and arrogance. Although, it may think it knows more than you, but more what? Good data or bad data?
What about strategic moves? It’s really good at Chess and games, is that enough to make it win a war? Win at business? Improve living conditions?
If you worked in telecom, you would have seen so many jobs disappear. RF Engineering is now done mostly by software. You just add the data. You assume it’s correct.
Most jobs have been offshored that don’t need actual labor onsite.
With the advances in AI, what will happen to higher-skilled people? We already know that ChatGPT can pass law and medical tests. We know it could start to eliminate many of those jobs that offer advice or diagnose problems. It would also make decisions based on facts, patient history, and without compassion.
We should also look at politicians. Think about how ChatGPT would take a lot of corruption out of politics. So many politicians all over the world have their private empires. It appears they care less about the people they represent and more about their interests. Their decision-making is questionable at best and they roll with the tides of the media. ChatGPT would change so much of that if it were relied on to make better decisions based on needs and future betterment.
We all know that would never happen. Look how many politicians serve past their 70s. It’s more than a career, it’s a lifestyle. Apparently one of entitlement. I just think it couldn’t do worse, even without compassion.
Who will run and influence ChatGPT?
OK, this is the real kicker. We already know that whoever sets up the ChatGPT influences it to respond the way they want it to respond. We also know most of this is happening in Silicon Valley which ironically is one of the most liberal places on earth and yet they have severe homeless problems along with drugs and crime.
This is a real issue if you ask me. If it is relied on to make decisions, how do we know it won’t be influenced by marketing? Look how soda companies influenced our lives for about 50 years. How fast food was thought to be healthy.
What about how politicians influence them to make decisions? We already saw what happened at Twitter and Facebook when the FBI had them sensor posts.
This is a real fear because any software can be manipulated. Especially by programmers or perhaps hackers. How long would this be going on until we found out?
Will the elite at Silicon Valley try to influence the rest of the world?
Will someone in Washington DC decide the world has to make decisions in their favor?
Who will track what data goes in and comes out? Can that even be done?
Did I try using ChatGPT to write this article?
Yeah, I tried. I didn’t like the answers. They were generic and obvious. Some answers were just stupid. I guess it’s still figuring a lot out.
What I did like were the lists. It came up with some nice lists that I could build my content off of. You see what it said about AI and ChatGPT. That was useful because it’s a subject it knows very well.
For those of you interested in Amazon’s Sidewalk program for IoT, then you came to the right place.
Amazon Sidewalk is an Amazon project where Amazon, more or less, put LoRa gateways in several devices. They put LoRa access in Ring spotlight and floodlight cams, some Echo devices, and maybe some other devices.
What is LoRa?
It’s a wireless protocol that is used in IoT devices. Low power, ok range, and low data applications.
LoRa is short of Long Range and has a better range than Wi-Fi. It operates in the 915 MHz spectrum in the US.
In rural areas, they say you can get up to 10 miles range, but I haven’t seen that. It goes pretty far, maybe a few miles reliably. When you get to the urban areas there is so much RF that this low-power device can go up to a mile, more if you’re lucky. That’s what I have seen.
The protocol is a standard, which is great when buying devices because it will work on any LoRa-certified gateway, like all those Amazon Sidewalk devices I mentioned.
Not sure what security you have or if you need it, but it could still be a security risk,
Spotty coverage,
If using Amazon Sidewalk:
Amazon put in the device, but the end user can opt-out if they want to and that may hurt your coverage,
The end user will lose a very small sliver of their network but they probably will never notice,
No guarantee of reliability at all,
No help desk to call if you lose a device,
No coverage map so you have to try it first,
It’s for tracking, not much else.
Why do 5G people care?
To be honest, many don’t, but here’s my take. (It’s my article, I’ll care if I want to.)
Offloading! This is a great way to offload all those pesky IoT devices from the 5G network, whether it’s private or commercial. Let’s put smaller devices on a free network in which people have no interest in paying a monthly fee. Let’s offload to a “free” network.
If we offload devices and traffic then small data usage devices are not a worry or a problem. Let’s put the important things on 5G.
We can put in even more LoRa gateways and have the backhaul connected to 5G if you want to extend coverage.
Keep the problems in mind. Less secure, low data throughput, and spotty coverage. My biggest fear is if someone is relying on this network and the device can’t communicate. If it’s mobile, then you have a good shot at tracking it.
I also worry that it could be a security risk. Think of what lengths some hackers go to when hacking a network. This could be a hole. I don’t know how, but it’s something we have to consider.
Offloading is good if it’s done with care and security.
Finally, you know people are already connecting to 5G networks for backhaul with these devices connected to their network in some way. That may be a problem for the reason I mentioned above. I would like to think that 5G is secure enough that it’s not an issue, but maybe I am a little insecure and need some reassurance. That’s all.
