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The FirstNet Fizzle

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What do the deployment teams think of FirstNet? What do you think of FirstNet? Yes, FirstNet. For all of us who were looking forward to building FirstNet, guess what, it is only going to help you if you already work for a carrier, a large carrier, probably AT&T. Yes, the carriers are rule the industry.

The way it looks is AT&T are the front-runners, not because of anything specific, just because they are interested in the offer and they are apparently the perfect fit. Maybe Rivada can get in there, but it will be an uphill battle for them. The only competition I could see is if T-Mobile or Verizon show interest, which they didn’t yet. If they do come out as bidders, great, but the way it looks at this moment in time is that AT&T has a lock on it.

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If you are a contractor for AT&T, things look pretty good for you. I believe that the engineers and installers have a great opportunity to get in on the AT&T growth spurt, in 2017. I don’t see much happening before 2017 because this process of approvals, contracts, and agreements will go slow. When they do ramp up, go baby go! Then in 2018 or 2019 we should see the densification of the FirstNet network for better coverage. It’s a long wait, but worth it.

So this will not be a normal public safety offer, really it won’t look like public safety at all. In fact, I am curious how Motorola will survive moving forward, but that is another story. For this story we need to look at this as just another carrier expansion. This is one that the carriers will continue with business as usual, that is, until something doesn’t work or goes wrong then the finger-pointing will begin. I hope they forego the finger-pointing and decide to just push ahead. It will be a new system built on an existing system that will have glitches. Then the advancements will begin, like push to talk, PTT, and over the top, OTT, services for all of you to start adding to the system.

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FirstNet will add a lot of work but the way I see it, it will be as an expansion to the AT&T system. The one thing that AT&T will need to do is build the markets they may not have, like rural Alaska and Hawaii where there may be little or no coverage. They may also need to improve coverage where FirstNet needs to cover real estate. How will they do this? Partners, they will trade spectrum, specifically the Band 14 of FirstNet, to a smaller local carrier just like they do now. Then they will setup roaming between systems.

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Roaming is relatively simple for carriers now. They just bill in whatever terms the contract states, by minute or by call, whatever. They do it all the time between all the carriers. This is how a basic MVNO agreement works. A company, like Virgin Mobile here in the US, has a billing system tied into a large carrier and then create an agreement billing by the minute, a bulk of minutes, or be billed by subscriber. These are ways that the MVNO can work and probably what Rivada will have to do to be competitive.

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I was hoping that FirstNet would spark the industry, but I was wrong. It will merely help the dominance of the carriers over all the wireless systems in the USA.

I bring this up because public safety was the last stand for small business, the last stand for a regional business to do work outside of the carrier world. Broadcast appears to be changing and winding down. Broadcast was a place where smaller businesses were still prevalent. Well, those days are coming to a close, aren’t they? The 600MHz auction is shutting that door. Now, if you don’t do carrier work or tower modifications, then you had better be getting into pole placement for small cell expansion.

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What a let-down, the FirstNet team took a long time to hand it over to a carrier. I guess it should not surprise me because they do LTE so well, but I thought it would be an opportunity for a new player to come in. With all of their money and backing, I have to root for Rivada just to see what they will do different. I know that the $6B budget that they have looks inviting, but the only realistic way they can get there is to partner with a carrier. It makes perfect sense for the FirstNet team.

So what can you do? Sit back and wait for the deployment, next year, hopefully early in 2017 we will see real work rolling out. I am looking forward to it!

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Wade4Wireless BlogCast

LTE at IWCE 2016

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You may not know but I will be speaking at IWCE. IWCE asked me back to do 3 sessions. Find out how to register here. (If you want to walk to floor or get a discount, enter the code SPK) Are you a fan of what IWCE? I am because the people in the wireless industry can learn so much. I know that I put a lot of time, effort, and money into going to these events. I put together the presentation, prepare the talk, and hope I can answer all of the questions thrown at me. I really like doing it because I get to meet so many people.

These sessions are put together to not only teach you about wireless technologies and processes, but also to give you a diverse view of the technologies available. When working in wireless you learn there is more than CDMA and LTE, like what the carriers use. (That may include GSM, but I digress.) Public safety relies on real-time communication that trunking systems can provide. They rely on TETRA and P25 to communicate. I think it’s important to realize that Wi-Fi and broadband access is also a common technology that many of us take for granted. These are all examples of wireless technologies that are used daily. If you ask the first responders what they use, they just know that they have a reliable communications system, they may not know if its TETRA or P25, but they know that they rely on their radios for backup and constant communication Whether that radio is their radio on their belt or the cell phone that they use daily, either one is a necessity in today’s world. Eventually they will merge into one, which is what I see.

I would like to thank the teams at IWCE that make this possible. It is a huge undertaking. They really do a good job. Thank you for adding me to this impressive line up!

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Remember that OSHA is working hard to keep your job safe!

OSHA cares!

OSHA explains, if you click here, complaint information and whistle-blower protection.

To report an emergency, fatality, or imminent life threatening situation please contact our toll-free number immediately: 1-800-321-OSHA (6742)

Reach the OSHA Complaint web site for non-emergencies by clicking here!

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Log your job, your high time, your drive time, and track your crew’s work and protect yourself!

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Wade4Wireless BlogCast

FirstNet RFP, Deploy if you Dare!

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The FirstNet RFP was released! Can you believe it? I started working on this back in 2011 making material for the pending RFP, and here it is in 2016. I was so excited until I looked at all of the documentation, wow! There is so much. However, I am not going to break it all down, I just want to give a high level view of what it will mean to the deployment teams. Deployment will not happen until 2017, installations mid to late 2017, but when it does, there will be plenty of work.

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So, what does this mean to the wireless deployment community? Well, almost nothing until 2017. Let’s face it, to go through this it will take some time. FirstNet expects their responses to come in April where they will need to review it and see who can do it. Unless you work on the RFP response, 2016 won’t mean much to you. The way the RFP is written, it may not matter anyway.

Who can do it? It will take a carrier. It will not happen too quickly even though they want it too. I see AT&T having the best shot at doing this. I think Verizon would be a great competitor but I get the feeling they’re not interested mainly because they always answer with “No comment” when asked. Either they are still deciding or they don’t’ want to.

One thing that will hold back integrators is the penalty they will get if public safety does not subscribe, Donny Jackson wrote an article here. Isn’t government great when they want a sustainable system? They can just say that you have to pay them or don’t bid. That will hold back integrators because FirstNet is really looking for carriers, not integrators. In fact, it could even hold back the carriers. They already have working models without the potential penalties. FirstNet is doing all that they can to hold back the number of bidders. I am reading through the RFP, but I didn’t see this section just yet but I do see the minimum payments part. Maybe I missed it but I was more concerned with the actual equipment and services. If this is the case, why would anyone take this on? Even AT&T has to think it might not be worth it unless they see value in the spectrum. Is AT&T is willing to pay this as a fee to get more spectrum, after all, FirstNet can’t sell it. Will AT&T set up a public safety sales division to sell to public safety groups nationwide? It may become more of a headache than an asset but they may do it for the additional spectrum.

T-Mobile might do this for spectrum as well, but will they tackle something like this? Probably not. They may not want to deal with the extra work or the potential for bad press or the penalties. It probably isn’t on their roadmap unless they really, really want the spectrum.

I don’t see Sprint doing it. They are a mess and need to worry about their own system before they deploy another system.

It looks like FirstNet really pigeon holed this RFP towards carriers, nationwide carriers who already have a system built and running. All the anticipation in the industry and now it looks like no integrator would want to touch it with these crazy penalties. However, I guess you can sell your own devices on this spectrum and that may be a source of revenue. If you can’t get the public safety groups to go on it then it may be an additional way to load the network. They will like it until there is an emergency and the spectrum is pulled away from the consumer for emergency responders, but if no public safety group is on it then why bother?

Selling public safety is more than just providing a great deal, it also has to do with politics. Some groups may sign up to support the network and others may not just because they don’t believe in it. It’s not like the carrier market where you do have loyalty, but mostly people sign up for coverage and price, maybe to get a cool phone but you can put almost any phone on any network in today’s world.

Now, the deployment scenarios.

Timeline – with the RFP being released in January of 2016 and being due in April, there may be an extension so let’s say May. Then FirstNet need to evaluate the responses, which it may only be AT&T. If there are a lot of responses then it may take the rest of the year. Once they pick a winner then the negotiations and final contract talks need to be completed. Then the deployment will happen. I say 2017 with RF design and site acquisition then site design, structural engineering, and then installation, commissioning, integration and finally optimization. If it’s an AT&T then it will be treated as an expansion or system growth, not really a new deployment.  Installation probably happening mid to late 2017, all the way through 2019.

A new carrier with a system integrator – this would be where a new carrier would partner with a Harris or Motorola. If they got it then there would be many RFPs coming out to expand. First they would need to work with an OEM to deploy. The RFP is so much more than that, but let’s just concentrate on deployment. They would need to secure tower space, create a massive RF design, then site design, then deploy. I don’t know what the deployment strategy would be but it would be a lot of work and the equipment may not be ready until mid to late 2017 to be mounted. Antennas, cables, and eNodeBs would all need to be ordered which they may have something or they may not. It would be close to what Verizon has to maybe it would not take so long to develop. Maybe 6 months. Then the installation could begin. Logistics would be a major factor. Get ready for RFPs out the wazoo if that happens.

It’s too bad that LightSquared is in dire straits because this would be a good play for them or a start-up if they can sell their own products on this system and FirstNet would pay them to do it.

Carrier – If a carrier wins, like T-Mobile, Verizon, or AT&T, then I would imagine they would treat it like an expansion and try to deploy it along with whatever else they have to deploy. The only problem they have would be reporting progress back to FirstNet on a regular basis. The deployment teams would again probably not start until mid to late 2017 because of the design and the equipment details. You see, AT&T has to worry about the existing leases so they need to decide if they can get a new radio head and antenna or if they have to add new sectors altogether. I would think they could expand but the leases have to go through before they can do much of anything.  The sad part of this is that AT&T will go back to the turf model, so they will need to be sure that all the climbers are certified and safe. It will be a challenge because this is a federal project so they will be deploying under a microscope.

For the deployment teams, more work! RF Design will be needed. For tower leasing companies, it should mean a lot more revenue! For site design and structural engineers, so much more work! You all have the upfront work to do so the installation and integration teams can get to work. Then the optimization will happen. This should be over 3 years of macro deployments nationwide. It all depends on who you’re already aligned with.

If you’re thinking about small cells and DAS, I would think any of that would happen until late 2018, unless AT&T wins, then it may happen sooner. FirstNet will need better coverage, so the indoor coverage will matter at some point. To achieve this they will need small cells all around, inside and out. I see this as a huge boost for the small cell deployments. Unfortunately it won’t happen until 2018 at the earliest, 2019 is more likely.

So get out there and deploy America! Deploy for your country to finally have a nationwide broadband network so that they can watch everyone on live video feeds at will! Oh, don’t get me wrong, I see big brother watching, but who has time to watch everyone, seriously, who? This network will help public safety teams do so much more. The police will have live video available to track bad guys. Fire and Ambulance can use it to send medical data back and forth so they can treat someone live in the field and on the way to the hospital to save lives. The game commission can use it so that I can watch the eagles in their nest, like this one in Pa. I can’t wait. Just as long as the government doesn’t mandate cat videos on YouTube, then I am good.

Just think if we could see the first responders in real-time with their body camera video, how cool would that be? At least the 911 dispatch could get a glimpse of what’s happening real-time so they could call for back up or medical if needed. Really, that’s a game changer.

By the way, all of this has been done so far with the FCC spectrum auction money, not tax dollars. I hope they can sustain it without tax dollars, but only time will tell. They put penalties in there because they thought the spectrum was so valuable that people would live with it, will they? Time for a reality check! The response to the RFP will tell the tale.

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To see the FirstNet RFP, go to http://firstnet.gov/ to learn more and download it here, https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=7806696f4340f16474647ccc57805040&_cview=0 and they had a webinar, the slides are available here, http://www.firstnet.gov/sites/default/files/Jan-15%20FirstNet%20RFP%20Webinar%20Presentation_0.pdf in PDF format.

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New Hampshire in or out of FirstNet

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Hello FirstNet fans! Guess what, a precursor to the dreaded FirstNet RFP! In case you didn’t see it, the state of New Hampshire issued a FirstNet RFP, (Request for Proposal) for a FirstNet system. The PDF link is here for all of you to see and yes, it is publicly viewable. UrgentComm did a story on this here. The Department of Safety put it out there. Why? I don’t have the inside track so let’s consider the reasons.

So here we are, less than a month away from the FirstNet RFP and look what New Hampshire’s Dept of Safety does, they have to upstage FirstNet by issuing their own RFP, how cool is that? By the way, if you need another FirstNet history lesson go ahead and jump to page 8 of the RFP, it’s all there, again. Let’s go to page 17 where New Hampshire outlines the scope for the FirstNet deployment. It looks like they used the FirstNet RFP as a model and shortened it to 56 pages so that they get an idea of who would partner with them.

First off, if you have to work on these RFPs, it is a nightmare! In this case, it seems obvious they are looking for a partner and pricing. It doesn’t look like the partner will be an integrator, my interpretation. We have to prepare for the big one in a month and now it appears that New Hampshire is covering its bases. They probably want to see who will bite, before the big FirstNet RFP, so they understand the risks of opting out and the pricing. Will they Opt Out? Probably not but now they have done their due diligence.

It seems that they are looking for someone who can design and create a system for their state or a carrier with a system already in place. It seems they want to compare pricing with this versus FirstNet. I think that it’s great they’re looking into it, but seriously, how many people will have the time to look at this? The FirstNet RFP will be released in about 3 weeks and right before a huge holiday season. I know that we are all eager for work but this should really be handled along with the existing FirstNet RFP. It will be hard to stay motivated on this knowing that they are using it to compare.

So what can you do? Wait for the large system integrators to respond or see if a carrier picks it up and then see if you can tag along as a smaller vendor. See if they will pick you up as a partner.

Remember that this may or may not be used, so for the smaller  integrators to spend time on this may be a drain on your resources. It looks like they are going to use it to compare the option of opting in or opting out. If you are the one responding then you know how long it will take to formulate a respectable response. Hopefully you can do this with the real FirstNet RFP in a few weeks. Maybe do them altogether as one. Can it be done? Will the teams be able to work together? Only you know what your teams can and will do. I know some company’s setup firewalls between teams so they can’t necessarily share resources.

So it looks like they are going to   use this for a comparison to FirstNet just in case they want to opt out. It looks as though they hope to see who the partners would be.  It looks as though they think that this can be done with the FirstNet RFP, if I am reading this right.

I hope that helps, just a quick update on FirstNet.

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Who will Bid on FirstNet?

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That’s right, with the RFP coming out in December, probably on 12/31/2015. We are all anticipating the release. For so many reasons. Who will bid on it? Who will risk it? Who will take a chance on building the nationwide LTE system for public safety? Is it real or did the government just waste tens of millions of dollars? I built a hypothetical list just for you. We talk about this all the time, especially at work because of the $6.5B, yes, billion dollars that is up for grabs. I know, they had $7B, but honestly, how much will trickle through the government before the contractors and OEMs see any of it?

Well, I hope it is real because it is a lot of work. What’s that, how did they waste all that money? Well, first, FirstNet spent a ton of money putting together their group and going through several people to get the stability it needed. Remember this; government can’t just go and build with investor money. You have to play nice with all the government agencies that want favors in return. Remember that everyone has a kingdom to protect. One thing they should know is that this would bring a lot of work to every state and every industry.

Let’s not just look at the federal money spent, the states spent a crap ton of hours preparing for this and trying to figure to build a case to opt out. I don’t think any of them will but they spent the cycles trying to build a case to get out of it. Why? That’s their job, to weigh both sides so they can make an educated decision.

As for spending so far, look at the road shows , the testing, the labs, the promotional work, the states hiring consultants (which does not come out of the federal money but your state taxes), the congress and senate burning time on this, the companies that are preparing to respond. All this is money and time spent for something that we all hope will happen.

Sorry, that is off the point, let’s get back to the bidding contenders. Who can take this on? Who is interested? Well, I have built a hypothetical list of groups that I know of. Now understand that some people don’t want to bid on it. I built this list because we have been talking about this all week with the RFP coming up.

OEMs – like Alcatel-Lucent/Nokia and Ericsson. Honestly, it’s too big and I don’t think they can do what FirstNet wants. The draft RFP dog-tags_clearbackgrondmade it clear that FirstNet wants to partner with a carrier for roaming purposes. It will also be more of a build, operate, maintain, and handoff model which the OEMs don’t want to deal with. Think about it, would you want to finance a network like this just to sell equipment? That’s what Sprint is looking for, how is that working out?

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System Integrators – who? I made a list below

  • Rivada – they seem to think that they can build a relationship with the carriers to use the FirstNet spectrum. They have a plan to let the carriers bid on the spectrum to generate revenue. Cool idea in concept, I wish them the best.
  • General Dynamics – They want to and they are big enough to do it. But, can they fit the model? Can they manage this without getting a black eye? Can they work a deal for roaming?
  • Motorola – Will their deal with Ericsson make them a contender? Did LA-RICS give them a black eye or show they got experience? Motorola used to be a power house in public safety, in fact, they were the team to beat in wireless communications at one time. That’s right, they did everything from car radios to satellite to paging to cell systems to cell phones to Nextel. They were the team to beat in public safety. You could not walk into a site without seeing the batwings exposed on equipment. If you don’t know what I mean, then you are too young to understand. By the way, do you still see the Motorola Logo in sites? Of course, but not like you did 20 years ago, you know I’m right! They also did networking equipment in the days of framed relay and modems, (if you’re asking what that is, use Google to look it up, again, I am in my 50s, get over it). The flaw I see here is that Motorola did not learn from the carriers by partnering with one OEM, how stupid? All the carriers knew better. They know that you need 2 or 3 OEMs to play it safe and keep innovation alive and make it competitive. I say that they made an obvious mistake right up front, in my opinion.
  • IBM – Why not? They are big enough and I would say they could do as well as Motorola. They would build processes to handle all of this and they could make it happen and they could build the relationships with the carriers as well as anyone on this list.
  • Black & Veatch – I believe they could do it but would they want to when they could just as easily do regional work for any of the above? They are positioned well for the deployment, but FirstNet wants so much more than to deploy a network, too much for Black and Veatch to want to deal with. I think they know what they are good at, managing deployments, they don’t want to get in over their head with the operate and maintain.
  • Others – Who else could do this? I am sure there are plenty that when they look at it they think they could, just like the little engine going up the mountain, “I think I can, I think I can” but when they read the RFP, they will see it’s so much more than deploy, it deploy, operate, maintain, provide immediate coverage. That’s a huge plate to fill for any one company especially when FirstNet wants a SPOC, (single point of contact).

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What about carriers? Here is the target audience for what they are looking for. Voila! You have the target integrator for FirstNet because you have an instant carrier. This is what FirstNet wants, at this moment in time. This is what I see as the master plan. The RFP will have all the requirements to build a system on top of a system using that valuable spectrum. Too bad the carriers are having 2 auctions prior to the actual deployment. You see they now have spectrum. Let’s list them out one by one.

  • Verizon – this is the target but does Verizon want to do this? It doesn’t appear so. They already make a ton of money off government phone contracts and they have a government division. They seem to have a pretty solid and profitable business. Do they want to do this for some spectrum that they may or may not be able to use? Ask them, I believe that they know if the system has an issue or if the relationship sours they will lose more in the long run with public image and future government contracts.
  • AT&T – Here is a contender that may sign up because they love more spectrum, they need more spectrum, and they appear to be interested. They could do it but could they meet the land mass coverage that is required of FirstNet? I don’t think they could and I don’t think that they want to, but if they sign up they will be required to. Is it worth it?
  • Sprint – Seriously, Sprint, don’t they have to get going with the densification project after cutting over $2B from their budget? They don’t want to deal with anything like this right now.
  • T-Mobile – They won’t want to cover all that FirstNet has and chances are good they don’t want to deal with it. It is a large offer. Too large for them to really take seriously at this time. They certainly don’t want to cover all the landmass that will be required.
  • CCA members – They probably can’t cover the land mass without T-Mobile and/or Sprint, too bad. I think that this group would be awesome at this,. Seriously, if they could step up and take this on. I know that CCA probably couldn’t manage this on their own, they would need help, but I have a list above of plenty of system integrators that would be happy to help.
  • T-Mobile with all the members of CCA – Awesome! I would love to see this happen because CCA could cover most of what T-Mobile can’t, and these teams could do it! I also believe that the spectrum would be very valuable to the CCA members. Seriously, they could use it since they don’t get many breaks on bidding with the FCC. Deep pockets generally win. T-Mobile, again, won’t want to deal with this but if CCA could build a team then T-Mobile could step back and concentrate on the network whilst CCA manages the build and integration while T-Mobile could operate and maintain. All that for some extra spectrum and $6B. Suddenly this team would make a play for #2 with coverage if they looked like one system. Hey, just my thoughts here.
  • AT&T with CCA Members – Here is an ideal situation, again, in my opinion. AT&T already has interest and they have the network and the experience. CCA could fill the holes. They could cover the landmass that AT&T can’t or doesn’t want to. What a concept. Could AT&T and CCA work together, who knows! I would like to see it but it probably won’t happen. I think this is what should happen since it could really change the landscape of the industry. One more thing, it would really put Verizon in a tough spot because these 2 together would over shadow Verizon’s network. T-Mobile, being a member of CCA, probably would not let this happen. Sprint is also a member of CCA, but they have their own problems to deal with, they might protest but I don’t think that they would get in the way.

Did I miss anyone? Let me know below the links. I just think we need to see that FirstNet really limited their options by asking for a single company to deploy. That’s what happens with you only want to deal with the SPOC. They will soon realize how hard that can be, to only get information from one person. If you’re like me and every other analyst I know, you will soon realize to listen to many sources before making a decision. Even then you can be wrong, but you have done your due diligence.

There is one option I didn’t mention. The states could build it. If this went back to the states, what would happen? I think we can tell the active states would kick ass. I mean the big boys like Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and many more. They want to move ahead and move now. I believe they don’t want to wait. They seem to have an exact idea of how to deploy. Unfortunately they don’t see any good way to opt out, it could lead to disaster. They also are hoping to use their backhaul assets for the system, but if the carriers are used, that probably won’t happen.

By the way, I am looking forward to getting a ton of small cell and DAS work from this in about 3 years, seriously, there is a lot of work coming if this happens. Oh, there I said it again, the big “IF” word again. I really hope it happens soon.

I like you all to know that I just don’t make this up. I actually read a lot of articles. I have a list of my sources for you. That is why there are so many links in these posts.

Sources:

http://urgentcomm.com/public-safety-broadbandfirstnet/top-carriers-may-have-reservations-about-participating-firstnet-bid-

http://urgentcomm.com/blog/where-will-firstnet-be-next-911

http://www.fiercewireless.com/tech/story/analysts-verizons-prospects-winning-firstnet-project-increasing/2015-04-16

http://www.rcrwireless.com/20151022/network-infrastructure/when-will-firstnet-we-see-a-large-scale-firstnet-deployment-tag20

http://www.mccmag.com/Features/FeaturesDetails/FID/588

http://urgentcomm.com/blog/dynamic-spectrum-arbitrage-key-sustainable-firstnet

http://urgentcomm.com/funding/rivada-networks-peter-tenerelli-explains-proposal-let-firstnet-generate-revenue-excess-capac

https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/community/blogs/DonD/entry/public_safety_network_firstnet_part_ii?lang=en

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Regional Carriers Slighted by FirstNet

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FirstNet made the decision to invite companies that can handle a nationwide rollout to the RFP coming out this year. The playing field for bidders just got a whole lot smaller. Did FirstNet hurt FirstNet by doing this? Did they severely limit competition? Hey little guy, better kiss up to the turf vendors, again. That is unless Verizon or AT&T will take this on, but why would they? They don’t need the spectrum and they probably have huge contracts with emergency services already, but let me get back to the point.

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Did FirstNet screw over the regional carriers by going nationwide only? Should the CCA, Competitive Carriers Association, http://competitivecarriers.org/, feel slighted? While they would never publicly admit it, I think that they already do, the CCA already dog-tags_clearbackgrondfeels a little down because the FCC isn’t going to help the smaller carriers out in the auction. They have a lot going against them. They need to rely on leasing the larger carriers for spectrum, so they probably feel like they are under the big boys’ thumbs with no help from the FCC. And now FirstNet.

The way I see it, this decision has taken away, correction, made it impossible for them to take lead roles in the roll out. Do you think it’s justified? There are 2 lines of thinking that are for and against FirstNet.

Against FirstNet. Here you have a group that is willing to work for spectrum but FirstNet implied that they don’t want to deal with small potatoes. They want to go big or go home. Drawbacks? FirstNet will wonder why the really rural areas are not getting built. Tower_20Worker_20Logbook_20Cover_20Final_203I see that as a problem, like getting Alaska built. They have a commitment to cover 95% of the landmass. I don’t believe that AT&T nor Verizon do much of that on their own. They need partners, the CCA members that are willing to cover those rural areas that the big boys don’t deem profitable. I get it, they need to make money, but the CCA is doing all that they can to provide coverage where there is none, kudos to the CCA.

The other problem I see is that FirstNet just raised the price of the system. They just said that because they don’t have the resources to manage the full build that they are willing to pay a large contractor to do it for them. This eats at margin on margin on margin. Once again, the installer is at the bottom of the food chain. What else is new?

The pros for FirstNet are that they don’t have to manage the build, they don’t need to hire too much staff to manage this. They limit their risk by putting it all on the company that is willing to take it on. They have one throat to choke. If they are really lucky that could partner with AT&T or Verizon to handle all of this for them. I get it, I SOW_20Training_20Coversee a huge upside by paying one contractor to do it all. It makes a lot of sense to me. So I am not one-sided on this. FirstNet has a daunting task, on that the federal government took away from the states. (The states probably would have something built by now, just saying.) So I see where FirstNet is at, this is the most efficient way to use their resources, just like when the government used one contractor over in Iraq, Halliburton, how did that work out?

Don’t get me wrong, the smaller carriers will be involved. They are needed to make this happen, in my opinion, because they have the coverage, the sites, the knowhow, and the experience to deploy in rural areas. I would want them on my side for wireless deployment. They are the key to construction in rural areas. Here is what I see as an invaluable partner, companies that are in the trenches to make the world of communications better in regions that the big boys intentionally overlook in favor of larger profits.

Rural areas are what FirstNet is required to cover, eventually, but they need to turn a profit first, just like the carriers. So do the big boys see them as competition? Do they see money going out the door if FirstNet is a success? Will they lose all that public safety money if FirstNet takes off? FirstNet’s plan hinges on them signing Cover V7 LTEup public safety groups around the US, then the utilities. What if it works and the groups start signing up? Why would they keep their big boy contracts? Why pay twice? Maybe the big boys see the threat of all those government agencies that relied on them for reliable coverage moving to FirstNet. What if they start leaving those 2 year contracts in favor of a system that is built for emergencies? I see that happening, if the system works, maybe in 2020. Why pay the carriers who have a system that gets overloaded in an emergency for one that is guaranteed to work in an emergency. Good bye crappy contracts and hello integrated public safety system. Is all that government money leaving the carriers, at least the big ones, for a newer system that focuses on public safety?

This is where the CCA and their members are invaluable. They could have used the spectrum and partnered with FirstNet to make the best system out there. They could have seen the opportunity to make it happen together in the areas that are very hard to cover. They could have brought their experience to the table. I see the CCA as a great partner, it’s a shame that FirstNet did not do more to work with them. I think that the experience that the CCA brings to the table is invaluable.

Will the big boy carriers take on the challenge of assisting FirstNet? I can’t wait to see but I think FirstNet should have seen more value in the CCA, that’s all I am saying. This is a daunting task, one that will take time, money, and patience. One that will have a lasting effect on the wireless industry because it will be taking money off the table for the carriers if they don’t work with FirstNet and then keep it in the government’s financial system. It is one that will spark growth in the wireless deployment industry for years to come! Deploy, deploy, deploy! Let’s get building! Well, I guess in 2017 we may get building, sorry, I got ahead of myself.

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FirstNet: When will it Happen?

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So FirstNet came out and said that they would issue the RFP to build the entire USA, article found here. This helps us understand that they do intend to build the country as a whole, not state by state. Now, the states do have the option to opt out, but so far I don’t see any definitive signs that any will. Now, what they show and what they will so could differ because the states have looked into it. They have hired consultants to help them weigh out the options. I believe that they would prefer to build their own networks but they don’t see the payback. In fact, they don’t have to go on the FirstNet network if they don’t want to. That may be the second thing they need to consider, which is cheaper, the carrier or dog-tags_clearbackgrondFirstNet. Let me tell you, devices will be expensive for FirstNet because any manufacturer will on make thousands, not millions. That is the most obvious obstacle but if there is an emergency then the FirstNet network will be up and available where the carrier’s network may be overloaded.

The way FirstNet is going to maintain the system is by selling contracts to first responders. This could be states, counties, cities, and anyone who may really need the LTE emergency network for data and eventually voice.

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Andrew Seybold, noted analyst in the wireless industry, wonders if anyone is still interested in bidding on FirstNet. (Great article in Mission Critical Magazine and I am a fan of Mr. Seybold’s work.) If you’re in the wireless industry then you know that this is going to take forever. The federal government has found a way to make the deployment go even slower before it begins. Let’s look at the problems.

  • To answer the question, anyone who wants a part of that $7B will bid on it, to make the money. So I see all the OEMs, large management companies, and contractors all bidding on it.
  • Is $7Billion dollars enough? Enough to get started. I am guessing over $30Billion to get over 75% of it completed if they build it themselves. If they partner with a carrier they could save a lot of money, the way I see it. But hey, I am guessing.
  • Can FirstNet run and maintain this RAN system without outside help? No, not without another major investment. So someone will have to maintain it for them costing them more money annually, (OpEx). It will not be free! They just do not have the manpower to take care of something like that. Who does, really, other than a carrier who is already doing it?
  • Does anyone think that FirstNet can sustain the network financially by selling services to public safety groups in the states? Not really, but there is hope and they do have a plan. States can still opt out but it is very hard to opt out and the W4W_20Cover_202budget dollars are not there. I would guess one source of income they would really like to have is to lease the spectrum to a major carrier. The deal there is that the carrier has access but public safety has priority and if an emergency happens then the carrier would likely lose access to it. As for the states buying time on it, that may become more of a political decision. If the states want to remain in good favor with the federal government they may spend the money hoping it will replace a carrier, but let’s face it, FirstNet reaching a carrier’s coverage is over a decade away.
  • Backhaul network? They would need to rely on vendors and the states to complete it and the states would want to charge for usage just like the vendors. Backhaul is key and will cost a lot of money if they build it all themselves. Backhaul will add to the OpEx and cost more money each month. Many states, like Pennsylvania, have their own backhaul network which FirstNet would use for political reasons if nothing else. It just makes sense. I see the fiber companies making a lot of money from this venture. Uncle San will pay a lot of money to add to the already intense infrastructure that they already have.
  • Was the draft RFP a good model for the actual RFP? It was OK but you don’t have a dedicated and experienced wireless team there. Don’t get me wrong, they are smart and learning, so I Tower_20Worker_20Logbook_20Cover_20Final_203wouldn’t put too much stock in that. It is like all new wireless companies that hire a core team and then practice and make corrections. That is where they learn from consultants, OEMs, and experienced people in the industry. Many states have dabbled in broadband and have an idea of what to do, but building the first public safety national network will be a huge challenge no matter who does it.
  • Can they complete it before the deadline? It doesn’t look that way to me so they may have to ask for an extension. I am not sure if they can get it or if the government would try to get what’s left of the $7Billion. Wait and see, I just hope all the contractors and suppliers get paid for what they have done.
  • Is the coverage area realistic? They are mandated to cover most of the real estate in the USA, so it will be tough! I forget the percentage, but it’s really high. They only make money where they lease the network. So the major population areas is where they will make a good return and the sparse rural areas, where even the carrier don’t want to build, will cost money to maintain with little return.
  • Can they do it without the help of a major carrier? Probably, but it will be much harder and cost much more!
  • Will a major carrier partner with FirstNet? I don’t know. I don’t see any of them publicly saying they want to. T-Mobile and Sprint SOW_20Training_20Coverdon’t see interested, Verizon and AT&T are looking into it but is it worth all the headaches? Only they can tell you. FirstNet would be smart to get the help of the CCA, in my opinion. CTIA would be a big help, but they would do what the carriers wanted, not what FirstNet wants.
  • If FirstNet builds the NPSBN, what does that mean to wireless deployment? More work, plenty of work, lots of work. All across the USA! Many crews would get busy doing federal work so life would be good for the build out years. Then, if you can score a maintenance contract you could continue to make residuals.
  • Will FirstNet start to deploy in 2016? Hell no! They are going to issue the RFP at the end of 2015, so that process takes time. Then the contract negotiations. Then the ramp up. Then the massive site acquisition and then the backhaul planning, network planning. First, they need to build a core and that takes time. I would like to think they would start in 2017. Can you wait that long?
  • Will the election change things? Possibly, but I hope not. It would really hurt and they already have $7B for this program. So I think it will continue until the money runs out.

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IWCE 2015 Flashback FirstNet

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As you know, I just got home from the IWCE show in Las Vegas. I wanted to go over some of the FirstNet information I found out there. I am following FirstNet because I think it will be a big boom for the industry when it takes off.

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 There are so many moving parts to FirstNet. I mean it is not just building out the network but it is also about how to sustain a public safety network for the long haul. It is about the politics of getting the federal and state governments to work together to create a national public network that is nationwide and 4G and ready to be used in any emergency. Something where all governments and utilities will have access to this network daily and especially during a crisis. All this and politics too. Remember that in government they don’t work together for profit, they work together for the greater good. Now, let’s define the greater good! The states and federal governments probably won’t agree on what the greater good is because it is open to interpretation. I don’t’ want to get into that I just want to give you some feedback from IWCE on FirstNet.

Let’s talk FirstNet. FirstNet is taking a long time but the system is huge and very political. The one thing I got from the sessions I sat in is that communication still seems to be an issue between FirstNet and the states. There was a session that had the state’s point of view and it was very interesting. I sat in on the session called “The State of the States: FirstNet and Public Safety Broadband” and it was people representing the states. There was someone from Texas, Todd Early the TxDPS Deputy Assistant Director, Ohio had Darryl Anderson Major the Ohio MARCS/OHIOSWIC/SIEC Administrator. From New Mexico Jacqueline Miller the Deputy State CIO was supposed to be there but I walked in late and may have missed her. They were all discussing the view from the states. Also there was Richard Reed the FirstNet State Plans Director and Robert LeGrand the founder and CEO of The Digital Decision.

Here is what I got from that session, they plan are still trying to understand how the states will work with FirstNet to deploy and how the system usage will be handled. There are still many questions about opting in and opting out. They are still wondering how the public private partnerships will work. Who will have access to the system and how will they be billed. In other words it seems there are many questions. I am not sure if the states feel well-informed. They have had meetings with FirstNet but they are still working through the high level information.

So what I saw was Ohio FirstNet. Mr. Anderson laid out the plan for Ohio where they will reach out to the counties to talk to each of them. The meeting with FirstNet is scheduled for June 11, 2015, and they hope to get more answers. The thing that he showed us is that each state has a daunting task of working within the state to get the counties and cities to work together to share resources and make this all come together.

Everyone there was looking forward to moving ahead, but with that said they would also like a timeline of when things will happen. They also asked that maybe a weekly update from FirstNet would really help them stay informed. I know that there were technical questions on the system but mostly I got the message that communication between FirstNet and the states still need work. There are technical issues that need to be resolved, but that will be worked out moving forward. Right now they need to start to work on simple things like weekly updates.

What updates? Well, I think they want to know the status of what’s going on. I believe the timeline needs to be laid out. We all hear that they can make the date, but in what order, when will they start the core? When will the RAN be rolled out? What year? Is the funding plan laid out?

Texas has a website where they have some information laid out, http://txlte.com/ if you are interested.

There were several FirstNet sessions and they were all pretty full. FirstNet is obviously on everyone’s mind. We have been hearing about it for 3 years and we really look forward to the actual construction of something. For something like this it may take up to 5 years to build once they get going. So let’s think about this, will they start next year? So we may have a system built, if we start in 2016, and then you should have a system built by 2021, in time for the 5G upgrades.

I guess I’m just impatient. All I want to do is deploy, deploy, and deploy!

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Wireless Deployment and the AWS-3 Auction

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I would like to wish all of you the Happiest of Holidays! A very Merry Christmas! May you all be home and blessed over the Christmas holiday with loved ones!

So, this may seem like a strange subject. I mean most of you are thinking that the AWS-3 auctions will lead to more work, but how and when? Well, that is why I am here. I want to break it down for you so you have an idea what the auction is and how it will affect the industry.
Let me start by saying this is my opinion and I am putting this out for informational purposes only. I read a lot about this and thought you may want to know how to plan for future work.

I hear all the time about people that aren’t getting paid, do you know what would help? Understanding that the SOW can be the document to get you paid! I have a free PDF that gives an overview of the SOW, free eBook, a SOW Overview. If you think it helps, then go ahead and make the investment for the SOW training package. Remember how important it is to get paid, define your work, and understand the change order process.

Let’s start with what is going on. The FCC release more air, that is bandwidth to raise money for the treasury and for FirstNet. Remember that FirstNet intends to spend $7 Billion, with a B, for their deployment. Now, this is a tremendous amount of money, but it probably won’t be enough to do what they want to do but I will get into that later.
Let’s go over some acronyms. AWS = Advanced Wireless Services, pretty simple, right. EA = Economic Areas. CMA = Cellular Market Areas. Now, let’s break down the frequency allocation.

Block Frequency Bandwidth MHz Area type # of licenses
A1 1695 to 1700MHz 5 EA 176
B1 1700-1710MHz 10 EA 176
G 1755-1760/ 2155-2160 10 (2 channels X 5MHz) CMA 734
H 176-1765/ 2160-2165 10 (2 channels X 5MHz) EA 176
I 1765-1770/ 2165-2170 10 (2 channels X 5MHz) EA 176
J 1770-1780/ 2170-2180 10 (2 channels X 10MHz) EA 176

The FCC was hoping to raise $10 Billion but the bidding is over $40 Billion so far. This is good for the USA and paying some debt down as well as funding FirstNet without tax payer money. However, who is paying The carriers, they need to dish out this kind of money before sticking one antenna in the air. The government will get that money up front and then more money in the form of taxes on your cell phone bill, and they are higher than ever. (Once again, the government found a way to double dip, but that is another subject. But I am getting off point, sorry.) There are 70 companies bidding on this. This is the first auction since 2008. There is an incentive auction scheduled after this one.

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So, this is the knowledge you need to understand what it is, but how does it affect wireless deployment. Well, that is obvious, because the carriers will want to build ASAP. This will happen but not until the OEMs, like Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, and maybe others get the product together, the testing takes place, and then devices have to be made. So that would probably be 6 months to a year after the build. Then the fun begins, site acquisition and then deployment. So when this deployment happens it will likely be LTE Advanced. I am not sure if they will wait for 5G. So then the deployments happen with all of the Remote Radio Heads (RRH) being put on the towers. This is a lot of loading. I would imagine that 2G networks will be decommissioned soon. So that will definitely happen o make room for this. Then the 3G networks will start to be decommissioned, but that will take a long time, maybe 5 or more years.
To put this into perspective, the carriers are mostly finishing up their current build. Sprint is still building out their Sprint Spark initiative but Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile should finish up in 2015. Then in 2016 I would expect things will start to heat up again. Remember that the carriers need to make the money back to show return on their investment. They also need the bandwidth because data is being used at an amazing rate. All customers ask for is more, more, and more. So how will they make their money back? Customers will need to pay for it and the deployment. It won’t be free to build but they must have a business plan to in place for payback. Just remember that the first place they will look to lower costs once again will be the climbers, fair warning.

Oh, by the way, FirstNet will also be ready to deploy early 2016, I hope, to get their network constructed. They have a huge task ahead of them because they committed to covering the continental US and all territories. That is a huge area. They also will be looking for partners. Will the carriers help out, who knows. What about Google? I think that would be the perfect partner because they could become a wireless carrier in a short time. Just my opinion! When FirstNet does build, it will be a lot of work all across the nation with the LTE build and the backhaul. The backhaul will be a combination of wireless and fiber, maybe both for redundancy.

So there it is, in about 18 months there will be deployment, beefing up towers, testing, optimizations, and more. Just in time to hear about the introduction of 5G. Then the upgrades will begin. Chances are the OEMs will be ready with mostly software updates but the antennas may have to be changed. Then 3G will be decommissioned.

So there should be plenty of work. Will the industry be ready to comply? Will the climbers have standard safety compliance? Will the schedules be reasonable? Will the tower crews get paid? We will have to wait and see.

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